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Sunday, April 22, 2018

Earth Day turned 48 on Sunday, April 22. Senator Gaylord Nelson (D-WI) founded Earth Day in 1970. His hope was to make the environment a political issue in an era when US rivers caught on fire and thick smog choked cities. One of the...

 

Saturday, April 21, 2018

While the domestic stock markets have levitated higher over the past few weeks, I am here to remind you that we appear to be BACK in a more normalized regime for volatility. What does that mean you ask? Since 1930, US stocks have...

 

Friday, April 20, 2018

Here is the 2017 Amazon shareholder letter for your weekend consumption. “High standards are contagious…The opposite is also true.” People are mirrors of their environments. Culture is an invisible force that is...

 

Thursday, April 19, 2018

Be Very Skeptical…of CEO’s and managment teams telling you they know the future. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O DisclosurePlease remember that past performance...

 

Wednesday, April 18, 2018

…Move Along Do you think the nations infrastructure needs repairs? Spectrum News NY1 ✔@NY1 More subway waterfalls. This was one commuter's view when the subway doors opened at 42nd Street-Bryant Park. (Video courtesy @BretHyde)...

 

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Tuesday, April 17, 2018

Happy Tax Day!?!? By the way…the IRS does not accept checks over $100 million FYI! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O DisclosurePlease remember that past performance may...

 

Monday, April 16, 2018

With the US Postal Service in the news as President Trump takes aim, I can’t believe this law was ever passed: Just another jobs program. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R =...

 

Sunday, April 15, 2018

In my latest post I referenced the concentrated nature of the return stream of domestic equities. While it is nice to have exposure to these names, as you can imagine it typically does not end well. As of the end of February 2018, the...

 

Saturday, April 14, 2018

It paid to hold these stocks for the last few years! As a reminder: Facebook Apple Amazon Microsoft Google All data through 03/31/2018 FAAMG Returns YTD = 4.1% S&P 500 Returns YTD = -0.8% S&P 500 Excluding FAAMG’s YTD = -1.4%...

 

Friday, April 13, 2018

On this day in 1970 those words were spoken from Apollo 13. “New Jersey, we have a problem.” If our current politicians have any say, those words will never be uttered by them. It will be kicked to someone else to deal with...

 

Thursday, April 12, 2018

According to PGIM, you should: Stick To Your Allocation During Times of Volatility. I have been telling you that, but they have some data! PGIM evaluated a 68-year time period with 26 volatility spikes and 25 post-peak events....

 

Wednesday, April 11, 2018

Below you will see that 108 consecutive months of global central bank easing has come to an end. This chart provided by Liz Ann Sonders outlines the fact that financial conditions are tightening across the globe. The issue to watch...

 

Tuesday, April 10, 2018

Later in his letter, Dimon admits that the US is facing some serious economic headwinds today. For one, he’s concerned the unwinding of quantitative easing (QE) could have unintended consequences on the economy. Remember- QE was...

 

Monday, April 9, 2018

But first here is an awesome video of a Noelle Lambert, a women’s lacrosse player from UMass-Lowell scoring her first goal of the season after lossing a leg in a moped accident in 2016. Awesome! To continue on my comments...

 

Sunday, April 8, 2018

After Friday’s 2% sell-off, I wanted to highlight two masters and their thoughts on volatility: “As long as the odds are in our favor and we’re not risking the whole company on one throw of the dice or anything close...

 

Saturday, April 7, 2018

Along with Warren Buffett and the investment managers we utilize for clients, Jamie Dimon’s annual letter to JP Morgan shareholders is a must read for me. He is an excellent writer and opines on broad topics from his perch atop...

 

Friday, April 6, 2018

Asset Class returns updated through March 31, 2018 I challange you to review and find a pattern that you can invest in now to capitalize on what asset class will be at the top next quarter. One interesting stat is the MSCI Emerging...

 

Thursday, April 5, 2018

I thought when the Masters started it was the real start of spring? I guess Mother Nature didn’t get the memo this year. The Masters at Augusta is a perfect segway to the Golden Bear and my S+R=O Investor Equation: “Success...

 

Wednesday, April 4, 2018

Thus far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had 11 sessions when it rose by at least 1%, including Monday, in addition to another 13 where it fell by at least that much, counting Tuesday. While swings of that magnitude are...

 

Tuesday, April 3, 2018

Below are exerpts from the blog Safal Niveshak and in just two paragraphs he outlines to a client the NEED for volatility: “If you study Nassim Taleb, markets are organic and complex systems, not machines to be fixed. And by...

 

Monday, April 2, 2018

Easter Monday Money Fact: Americans spend about $2.4 billion strictly on Easter candy. I ate my fair share of any sort of chocolate/peanut butter combo over the weekend! According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, April has...

 

Sunday, April 1, 2018

It’s a bird. It’s a plane. It’s an uncontrollable international Chineses space station. A 9.4-ton Chinese space station will soon begin falling to Earth and New Jersey is part of a swath of the planet where debris...

 

Saturday, March 31, 2018

The first quarter of 2018 had a negative total return for both the S&P 500 and Barclays US Aggregate. This is the first time since the 3rd quarter of 2008. And only the 8th time in the last 30 years. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient!...

 

Thursday, March 29, 2018

A new volatilite regime is upon us. Here is the proof: For the S&P 500, the 1st quarter of 2018 will finish with at least five -2% days (no matter what happens today). Since 1985, there have only been 4 other years with at least five...

 

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

After yesterday massive intraday swing and on the heels of a few manic months, it appears we are in a new risk regime. Meaning we will be locked in a battle of major market swings both high and low, which will lead to a grinding out of...

 

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Caveat: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any individual securities mentioned below. Sometimes I am just not sure what our government is thinking. The latest example is the blocking of the AT&T and Time Warner merger. While...

 

Monday, March 26, 2018

Thought of the Day There are few things an investor can control and the movement of the markets certainly are not one of them. This is why my concept of the Investor & Character Equation applies to all facets of life, especially...

 

Sunday, March 25, 2018

Yes another chart, but this one fits squarely into my S+R=O equation. They outline Cognitive Biases that can be mapped over to investing. I will go out on a limb and say virtually ever investor suffers from many of these. One of the...

 

Saturday, March 24, 2018

I absolutely love the daily e-mails I get from Visual Capitalist. They range in subject matter from OBOR (China’s Most Ambitious Megaprojecy) to Autonomous Vehicles. Today’s visual is a crash course on personal finance....

 

Friday, March 23, 2018

One of the latest Wall Street gimmicks was that unconstrained, flexible bond funds would allow you to maintain exposure to bonds, provided diversification with bond-like returns without the worry of higher interest rates. Exactly...

 

Thursday, March 22, 2018

It has only been one press conference but it appears the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jay Powell may be a bit more realistic and straight forward than his predecessors. First, his press conference actually ended 15 minutes...

 

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Another risk to investing in bonds is reaching for yield. This is something investors have struggled with since interest rates were slashed to zero a decade ago. While it is nice to pick-up additional income, it does come with risk....

 

Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Tomorrow the Federal Reserve will most likely raise interest rates by 0.25% as it continues to tighten monetary conditions. This will be the sixth rate increase since the Fed lowered rates to zero during the Global Financial Crisis....

 

Monday, March 19, 2018

Elizabeth Holmes, the CEO and founder of “game-changing blood testing company” Theranos, has seen her profile and company implode. She, along with the former president and the company itself, has been charged by the SEC for...

 

Sunday, March 18, 2018

Helping a young person fund an IRA—especially a Roth IRA—can be a great way to give them a head start on saving for retirement. This is mainly due to the power of compounding over a longer the timeline and taking advantage...

 

Saturday, March 17, 2018

FAANG Update First, a reminder of the players: Facebook Apple Amazon Netflix Google The details: The 5 FAANG names collectively have a ~12% weighting in S&P 500 as of Friday’s close The Cap-Weighted total return from that 12%...

 

Friday, March 16, 2018

Dr. Richard Thaler “The crazy thing is thinking humans always act logically.” This is a key pillar of my Investor & Character Equation and why it is so important that investors realize their short comings and what they can...

 

Thursday, March 15, 2018

According to the US Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, investors have borrowed a record $642.8 billion against investment portfolios. The leverage from this margin debt is a bid to increase returns. However, it leaves investors...

 

Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Stephen Hawking “Intelligence is the ability to adapt to change.” I hope the mysteries of the universe have been revealed to this visionary physicist! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character...

 

Tuesday, March 13, 2018

Researchers studied a sample size of 235,000 vasectomies in the U.S. across a 2-year span. On average, 279.5 vasectomies were performed each week. However, during the first week of the NCAA Tournament? 364. A 30% increase! Some credit...

 

Monday, March 12, 2018

We have just experienced the second longest US expansion in history. Well, actually it is a tie. The current U.S. economic expansion has continued now, uninterrupted, for 106 months with no recession. The average U.S. expansion lasts...

 

Sunday, March 11, 2018

It is not just individual investors who reach for yield. Bond managers often reach for yield thinking they can outsmart the market on rates and increase the income without sacrificing volatility and/or potential losses. According to...

 

Friday, March 9, 2018

On this day 9 years ago, the stock market bottomed marking the low of the Global Financial Crisis. To celebrate, Nerd Wallet highlighted 9 Facts for 9 Years: 1. Day 1 starts with a bang On Wall Street, bear markets are periods of...

 

Thursday, March 8, 2018

In support of all of the wonderful women, including my wife and daughter, I thought I would post an interesting note on women in finance. Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) recently compiled data on this topic. And what they found...

 

Wednesday, March 7, 2018

Danielle Lacalle “If a technology is viable, it does not need subsidies. If it is unviable, no subsidies will change it.” Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Tuesday, March 6, 2018

First to (Almost) Worst The #1 performing stock in the S&P 500 during 2017 was ranked # 491 during January 2018, down 8.7% last month after gaining +132.3% last year, according to BTN Research. Exclusive Club What does it take to get...

 

Monday, March 5, 2018

Emerging Markets, Volatility & Valuations Great insights into the above three themes from WisdomTree. Emerging Markets Outperform During The Correction One thing we found interesting was that during the height of the correction, the...

 

Sunday, March 4, 2018

In a short nine day period US stocks dropped into correction territory which is defined as a loss of 10% from recent highs. By the end of the month, the S&P 500 had rebounded by 5.1% from their February 8th lows. This monthly loss was...

 

Saturday, March 3, 2018

Where have all of the publicly trades companies gone? Data courtesy of Credit Suisse The Wilshire 5000 is made up of 3,492 publicly traded companies. Total listed domestic companies fell from 7,322 at its peak in 1996 to 3,671 in 2016,...

 

Friday, March 2, 2018

Great brief by Vishal at Safal Niveshak on the first page of the Berkshire Annual Report. Losing Less = Making More Long-Term Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O DisclosurePlease...

 

Thursday, March 1, 2018

After my post on the underperformance of Warren Buffett, I wanted to provide a bit more context. In the short-term, his stock picks have underperformed 8 of the last 10 years. However, dating back to 2000, his stock picks have...

 

Wednesday, February 28, 2018

On the heels of Warren Buffett’s annual letter release, I wanted to highlight an interesting fact. Warren Buffett has underperformed the S&P 500 by 30% over rolling 1-year time periods 5 times! Yes – you read that correctly...

 

Tuesday, February 27, 2018

This chart at the end of Vanguards 2018 Outlook dovetails perfectly into my Investor + Character Equation of S + R = O. Vanguard also realized that their 35 page outlook will not have nearly the same effect on your long-term goals as...

 

Monday, February 26, 2018

$12 Billion That’s how much NBC paid for the rights to broadcast the Olympics from 2014 through 2032. That enormous investment is doing fine, but a ratings slide may be making some at Comcast a little skittish. Viewership of the...

 

Sunday, February 25, 2018

This is my Chart of the Day: As we mentioned previously Warren Buffett is bullish...on America. He should have added...bullish on America over the long-term. Because in the near-term his favorite valuation metric (shown above) is not...

 

Saturday, February 24, 2018

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway annual letter was released on Saturday. I am going to be highlighting certain sections for my readers throughout the next few weeks. While he didn’t touch upon in detail his succession...

 

Friday, February 23, 2018

Facts of the Day Amazon (AMZN) has accounted for ~30% of the S&P 500 gains year-to-date. Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX) and Microsoft (MSFT) together have contributed close to 50% of the index gains. And the Technology sector overall...

 

Thursday, February 22, 2018

The team at Chenmark Capital recently spoke of the great nuance to managing business growth with a long-term perspective. It’s not that growth is as inherently good or bad as it may seem when looking at things through the lens of...

 

Wednesday, February 21, 2018

Charts of the Day Going back to 1871 when the data set begins, the average CAPE Ratio is 16.79. At its current value of 31.09, the CAPE is 85% above that average, meaning the S&P 500 would need to drop 46% tomorrow for valuations to...

 

Tuesday, February 20, 2018

There seems to be a divergence in market returns but unless you are a day trader you probably didn’t notice. Bespoke Research separated the daytime and the after-hour returns and calculated them cumulatively. As it turns out that...

 

Monday, February 19, 2018

As I have opined in prior writings, valuations are not catalyst to move the market in either direction. And no it did not cause the 10% sell-off earlier this month. The U.S. stock market today has only been this expensive just before...

 

Sunday, February 18, 2018

Pick a side: Team A Amazon Apple Facebook Team B Best Buy Blackberry Hawaiian Airline Team A right? Right? Nope. Team B outperformed Team A over the last 5 years. It is not always about the headlines and the big names. Stay Tuned,...

 

Saturday, February 17, 2018

Charlie Munger “It takes character to sit with all that cash and to do nothing. I didn’t get to where I am by going after mediocre opportunities.” Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character...

 

Friday, February 16, 2018

By Howard Marks February 2016 “My buddy Sandy was an airline pilot. When asked to describe his job, he always answers, “hours of boredom punctuated by moments of terror.” The same can be true for investment managers,...

 

Thursday, February 15, 2018

Dating back to 1945, the S&P 500 has had 27 declines of between 10-20%. We did eclipse 10% this month. The average decline in those periods was 14%. The average length of the decline was 4 months, so this may not be over. So…...

 

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

The last few weeks have been a roller coast up AND down. If you feel your mood being dictated by the moves of the market, you need to step back and turn off the TV. Unless you are a day trader and need to know every tick of a stock or...

 

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

So very true! Don’t fall for the click-bait. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O DisclosurePlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results....

 

Monday, February 12, 2018

I am not saying the resent move lower will not leave a mark, I am just trying to stress that it is all part of the process. Human beings are not wired to be rationale investors, thus like any physical task you must practice training...

 

Sunday, February 11, 2018

In the 75 years from 1943-2017, the S&P 500 had 28 declines of at least 10% but less than 20% or once every 2.7 years. A correction is defined as a stock market decline of at least 10% but less than 20% The bottom line is this –...

 

Saturday, February 10, 2018

One of the questions most posed last week by clients was why did the market fall and who is to blame. As expected everyone is looking for definitive answers but as is always the case with the stock market, many factors were at play....

 

Friday, February 9, 2018

It’s All Relative After the nine year bull market we have seen since the end of the Global Financial Crisis, a point decline in absolute terms is equating to a much smaller percentage drop. For example, the Dow shed 1,175 points...

 

Thursday, February 8, 2018

While any correction is typically Short, Sharp & Scary, we need to realize this is part of the PROCESS and is NORMAL. As the chart below outlines, this correction is no different. This is the 22nd pullback greater than 5% since the...

 

Wednesday, February 7, 2018

…Not the placid markets we experiences for nearly two years without a 5% drop. That period was the anomaly. The research team at DFA and JP Morgan produce great work on Intra-Year Declines. In examining calendar year returns for...

 

Tuesday, February 6, 2018

Psychologist Daniel Kahneman “If owning stocks is a long-term project for you following their changes constantly is a very, very BAD IDEA. It’s the worst possible thing you can do, because people are so sensitive to...

 

Monday, February 5, 2018

The Philadelphia Eagles win the Super Bowl with a former back-up NFL QB as head coach (Pederson) and former back-up NFL QB as offensive coordinator (Reich) and back-up NFL QB (Foles) as the Super Bowl MVP! The Eagles are NFL champions...

 

Sunday, February 4, 2018

As I stated my case yesterday, if history is any indication let’s hope the Patriots lose tonight. As many of my readers know I often intertwine sports and performance into my writings. Just like the Investor Character Equation...

 

Saturday, February 3, 2018

Yes I have adopted the Eagles since my Baltimore Ravens missed the playoffs (again). How can I not with the euphoria here in south Jersey. But there is an ulterior motive: Stocks perform better in years when NFC teams wins the Super...

 

Friday, February 2, 2018

One of the biggest concerns investors have today is when will the markets drop and by how much. I tell them that the next bear market catalyst is predicated on the rate of change of US growth (GDP and Profits) and Inflation. However,...

 

Thursday, February 1, 2018

As you can see from the chart embedded below, the stock market has been overvalued for a long period of time. In this example, the red portion is when the CAPE Ratio trades BELOW its long-term average. So dating back to 1990, it has...

 

Wednesday, January 31, 2018

Yes the stock market can go down and on back-to-back days! Even this recent parabolic move higher needs to take a breather. Here are the Stats of the Day: First 1% drop in 112 days. This ties for the longest stretch since 1985. First...

 

Tuesday, January 30, 2018

In January alone, Bitcoin lost as much in market cap as the entire value of Ford (F). It is currently estimated that 4% of Bitcoin owners own 95% of all Bitcoin. So, even if estimates are true that 1 in 20 Americans have exposure to...

 

Monday, January 29, 2018

The amount of income leaving CT and NY is roughly double the amount of people leaving the state, according to AEI. For example, while net migration in 2016 was negative to the tune of -0.80% in CT, the % of AGI (adjusted gross income)...

 

Sunday, January 28, 2018

As you can see in the chart below, in the last 100 years the red highlights the amount of time the CAPE ratio (Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings ratio) is ABOVE current levels. Exactly – not often. That was during the Technology...

 

Sunday, October 1, 2017

In what turned out to be one of the most docile Septembers in history, October is typically maniacal.The 3 best gain days (by percentage) for the S&P 500 in the last 67+ years (i.e., dating back to January 1950) all occurred during...

 

Friday, September 29, 2017

To dovetail on yesterday's musing, here is a chart outlining pullbacks and frequencies: We did have a ~10% correction to start off 2016; however, we have not had a 5% correction since.It has been 41 weeks since the last time the S&P...

 

Thursday, September 28, 2017

Chart and Stat of the DayChart courtesy of Michael Batnick:We’ve NEVER had a full year with an S&P 500 max drawdown this small. Full Stop.However, the year is not yet over.As a reminder, since 1980, the average annual drawdown is...