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Wednesday, February 21, 2018

Charts of the Day Going back to 1871 when the data set begins, the average CAPE Ratio is 16.79. At its current value of 31.09, the CAPE is 85% above that average, meaning the S&P 500 would need to drop 46% tomorrow for valuations to...

 

Tuesday, February 20, 2018

There seems to be a divergence in market returns but unless you are a day trader you probably didn’t notice. Bespoke Research separated the daytime and the after-hour returns and calculated them cumulatively. As it turns out that...

 

Monday, February 19, 2018

As I have opined in prior writings, valuations are not catalyst to move the market in either direction. And no it did not cause the 10% sell-off earlier this month. The U.S. stock market today has only been this expensive just before...

 

Sunday, February 18, 2018

Pick a side: Team A Amazon Apple Facebook Team B Best Buy Blackberry Hawaiian Airline Team A right? Right? Nope. Team B outperformed Team A over the last 5 years. It is not always about the headlines and the big names. Stay Tuned,...

 

Saturday, February 17, 2018

Charlie Munger “It takes character to sit with all that cash and to do nothing. I didn’t get to where I am by going after mediocre opportunities.” Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character...

 

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Friday, February 16, 2018

By Howard Marks February 2016 “My buddy Sandy was an airline pilot. When asked to describe his job, he always answers, “hours of boredom punctuated by moments of terror.” The same can be true for investment managers,...

 

Thursday, February 15, 2018

Dating back to 1945, the S&P 500 has had 27 declines of between 10-20%. We did eclipse 10% this month. The average decline in those periods was 14%. The average length of the decline was 4 months, so this may not be over. So…...

 

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

The last few weeks have been a roller coast up AND down. If you feel your mood being dictated by the moves of the market, you need to step back and turn off the TV. Unless you are a day trader and need to know every tick of a stock or...

 

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

So very true! Don’t fall for the click-bait. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O DisclosurePlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results....

 

Monday, February 12, 2018

I am not saying the resent move lower will not leave a mark, I am just trying to stress that it is all part of the process. Human beings are not wired to be rationale investors, thus like any physical task you must practice training...

 

Sunday, February 11, 2018

In the 75 years from 1943-2017, the S&P 500 had 28 declines of at least 10% but less than 20% or once every 2.7 years. A correction is defined as a stock market decline of at least 10% but less than 20% The bottom line is this –...

 

Saturday, February 10, 2018

One of the questions most posed last week by clients was why did the market fall and who is to blame. As expected everyone is looking for definitive answers but as is always the case with the stock market, many factors were at play....

 

Friday, February 9, 2018

It’s All Relative After the nine year bull market we have seen since the end of the Global Financial Crisis, a point decline in absolute terms is equating to a much smaller percentage drop. For example, the Dow shed 1,175 points...

 

Thursday, February 8, 2018

While any correction is typically Short, Sharp & Scary, we need to realize this is part of the PROCESS and is NORMAL. As the chart below outlines, this correction is no different. This is the 22nd pullback greater than 5% since the...

 

Wednesday, February 7, 2018

…Not the placid markets we experiences for nearly two years without a 5% drop. That period was the anomaly. The research team at DFA and JP Morgan produce great work on Intra-Year Declines. In examining calendar year returns for...

 

Tuesday, February 6, 2018

Psychologist Daniel Kahneman “If owning stocks is a long-term project for you following their changes constantly is a very, very BAD IDEA. It’s the worst possible thing you can do, because people are so sensitive to...

 

Monday, February 5, 2018

The Philadelphia Eagles win the Super Bowl with a former back-up NFL QB as head coach (Pederson) and former back-up NFL QB as offensive coordinator (Reich) and back-up NFL QB (Foles) as the Super Bowl MVP! The Eagles are NFL champions...

 

Sunday, February 4, 2018

As I stated my case yesterday, if history is any indication let’s hope the Patriots lose tonight. As many of my readers know I often intertwine sports and performance into my writings. Just like the Investor Character Equation...

 

Saturday, February 3, 2018

Yes I have adopted the Eagles since my Baltimore Ravens missed the playoffs (again). How can I not with the euphoria here in south Jersey. But there is an ulterior motive: Stocks perform better in years when NFC teams wins the Super...

 

Friday, February 2, 2018

One of the biggest concerns investors have today is when will the markets drop and by how much. I tell them that the next bear market catalyst is predicated on the rate of change of US growth (GDP and Profits) and Inflation. However,...

 

Thursday, February 1, 2018

As you can see from the chart embedded below, the stock market has been overvalued for a long period of time. In this example, the red portion is when the CAPE Ratio trades BELOW its long-term average. So dating back to 1990, it has...

 

Wednesday, January 31, 2018

Yes the stock market can go down and on back-to-back days! Even this recent parabolic move higher needs to take a breather. Here are the Stats of the Day: First 1% drop in 112 days. This ties for the longest stretch since 1985. First...

 

Tuesday, January 30, 2018

In January alone, Bitcoin lost as much in market cap as the entire value of Ford (F). It is currently estimated that 4% of Bitcoin owners own 95% of all Bitcoin. So, even if estimates are true that 1 in 20 Americans have exposure to...

 

Monday, January 29, 2018

The amount of income leaving CT and NY is roughly double the amount of people leaving the state, according to AEI. For example, while net migration in 2016 was negative to the tune of -0.80% in CT, the % of AGI (adjusted gross income)...

 

Sunday, January 28, 2018

As you can see in the chart below, in the last 100 years the red highlights the amount of time the CAPE ratio (Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings ratio) is ABOVE current levels. Exactly – not often. That was during the Technology...

 

Sunday, October 1, 2017

In what turned out to be one of the most docile Septembers in history, October is typically maniacal.The 3 best gain days (by percentage) for the S&P 500 in the last 67+ years (i.e., dating back to January 1950) all occurred during...

 

Friday, September 29, 2017

To dovetail on yesterday's musing, here is a chart outlining pullbacks and frequencies: We did have a ~10% correction to start off 2016; however, we have not had a 5% correction since.It has been 41 weeks since the last time the S&P...

 

Thursday, September 28, 2017

Chart and Stat of the DayChart courtesy of Michael Batnick:We’ve NEVER had a full year with an S&P 500 max drawdown this small. Full Stop.However, the year is not yet over.As a reminder, since 1980, the average annual drawdown is...