CMEYER Capital Group - Marlton, NJ

 

 

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Sunday, December 9, 2018

While mortgage rates have risen from bedrock levels, they are still well below historical rates. My first mortgage in the mid-1990’s was a 30-year fixed at 8.5%! Today, even with the rise in rates they are at 4.75%. Stay Tuned,...

 

Saturday, December 8, 2018

As you can see from the chart appended below, October was truly a difficult one for investors. From a diversification standpoint, typically stocks and bonds don’t fall at the same time; however, this is not an iron-clad...

 

Friday, December 7, 2018

Is competition disappearing? 2 corporations control 90% of the beer Americans drink 4 players control the entire U.S. beef market 5 banks control about half of the U.S.’s banking assets However, these are all highly regulated...

 

Thursday, December 6, 2018

There is much consternation in stock markets about trade deals, tariffs, tweets, executive arrests, program trading, etc. No matter what the headlines scream at the end of the day when I measure and map economic growth and inflation,...

 

Wednesday, December 5, 2018

Our thoughts are with the family of President George H.W. Bush, a man who dedicated his life to serving our country. Sully has the watch: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

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Tuesday, December 4, 2018

The “Tariff Man” or the yield curve inversion? President Trump on Tuesday issued his most market-moving tweet yet with this gem at 10:03 a.m.: “I am a Tariff Man. When people or countries come in to raid the great...

 

Monday, December 3, 2018

Joel Greenblatt Unless you buy a stock at the exact bottom (which is next to impossible), you will be down at some point after you make every investment. Your success entirely depends on how dispassionate you are towards short term...

 

Saturday, December 1, 2018

Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments...

 

Friday, November 30, 2018

Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments...

 

Thursday, November 29, 2018

We study a wide variety of correlations between various investments and other factors. Below I wanted to highlight an interesting chart that has a very high degree of correlation. In short, based on this historical analysis dating back...

 

Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Last year at Thanksgiving, most were talking about Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. This year – not so much! Here is a stark reminder in a recent article from Reuters in regards to where you are getting your recommendations and how...

 

Tuesday, November 27, 2018

With the upcoming G20 Summit this week, many financial pundits are looking for any reason for the market to rally into year end. Many have discussed the potential trade deal between Trump and Xi as a catalyst for the recent move higher...

 

Monday, November 26, 2018

PIMCO put together this chart on how Risk Factors perform in various parts of the market cycle. As you can see below, over the full sample, US stocks beat both US corporate bonds and US Treasuries based on risk-adjusted returns....

 

Sunday, November 25, 2018

Here is a history lesson on Apple, but this applies to most stocks as well. Over the last 15 years of holding stock in Apple (AAPL): 1 out of every 4 days you were in a 20% drawdown or more 61% of the time you were in a 5% drawdown or...

 

Saturday, November 24, 2018

I couldn’t resist! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results....

 

Friday, November 23, 2018

This is really an issue since we have been on the Quantitative Easing (QE) drug for 10 years. This is from Greg Ip in The Wall Street Journal: While I would argue QE was necessary at the time, I could also argue the Fed kept rates too...

 

Thursday, November 22, 2018

Chart of the Day Here is what America Eats on Thanksgiving Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be...

 

Wednesday, November 21, 2018

If you are a current investor in the FAANG stocks you are feeling the recent pullback. If you are a current investor in Bitcoin – OUCH. You have just experienced a 75% decline in 11 months. The reason for this is not a buy or...

 

Tuesday, November 20, 2018

This time with Natural Gas price volatility. As you can see from the top bold line, historically natural gas prices are very volatile. You can see the small hockey stick up recently, but if you look back over nearly 25 years the recent...

 

Monday, November 19, 2018

Joel Greenblatt “Unless you buy a stock at the exact bottom (which is next to impossible), you will be down at some point after you make every investment. Your success entirely depends on how DISPASSIONATE you are towards short...

 

Sunday, November 18, 2018

While this article and the details below are a bit wonky, it supports the premise that the Fed may NOT need to raise rates next year. Especially into an economic and inflationary slowdown as I am predicting. From the CFR: Our...

 

Saturday, November 17, 2018

And they are not good. One selling point all politicians go to is the passage of an Infrastructure bill. No thoughts or plan on how to raise the funds to fix our dilapidated system. Just that it will be a positive spending and stimulus...

 

Friday, November 16, 2018

I just received my Bloomberg BusinessWeek 2019 Outlook edition and I had to share this note from 2012. The editors at Fortune issued the Golden 10 Companies in 2000. Well as you can see not much gold in them there hills with this group...

 

Thursday, November 15, 2018

The staff at the FOMC recently added a question to its Survey of Senior Loan Officers last quarter: How would you respond to a ‘prolonged hypothetical moderate inversion of the yield curve’? With the yield spread shrinking...

 

Wednesday, November 14, 2018

Daniel Crosby – The Behavioral Investor “Although the media talks about 10% and 20% market losses as though they are the end of the world, they arrive as regularly as spring flowers and have not negated the tendency of...

 

Tuesday, November 13, 2018

Chart of the Day ATS stands for Automated Trading Services. This trend will not be changing so instead of complaining about it, we have tried to incorporate this fact it into our investment process. Control What You Can Control! Stay...

 

Monday, November 12, 2018

I recently wrote about how 2017 marked a year in which stock market volatility was at historically low levels. As it turns out, the past five years can also be categorized as one with historically low levels of downside volatility....

 

Sunday, November 11, 2018

This Veterans Day, all of us at Meyer Capital Group would like to thank all those who have served this country. Please join us in remembering the many sacrifices our men and women in uniform and their families make each day to protect...

 

Saturday, November 10, 2018

So far in 2018, the S&P 500 stock index has been down -1% or more on 22 days. In 2017, stocks only had a -1% or more down day 4 days the whole year. 2016 had 22 days the S&P 500 stock index was down over -1%. 2015 had 32 days the S&P...

 

Friday, November 9, 2018

Now this may be the best or worst story of the year: I have heard of PIK bonds which are Payment-In-Kind bonds. This means that instead of receiving interest payments as outlined, you receive more bonds in lieu of the interest payments...

 

Thursday, November 8, 2018

Based on my rant about the issues an investor faces when consuming free financial media and turning off CNBC, this Hedgeye cartoon is spot on: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Wednesday, November 7, 2018

Just Kidding Based on my previous rant, the results of the mid-term elections have little, if any effect on the economy in the near-term. It makes for good fodder and fills the airwaves with political punditry. Ray Dalio who is one of...

 

Tuesday, November 6, 2018

But first some thoughts: Politics and Investing DON’T MIX Be APOLITICAL In Your Investment Decisions And DISPASSIONATE And Develop and Stick to YOUR PROCESS If you find yourself reacting to tweets or headlines or stats (of which...

 

Monday, November 5, 2018

Looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) daily standard deviation, October stands out as the most volatile month. From the 1920’s to 2018, average volatility was 1.12, compared with October’s average volatility of...

 

Sunday, November 4, 2018

Yes October Was Bad… …Even For A Midterm Election Year Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may...

 

Saturday, November 3, 2018

Upton Sinclair “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!” Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Friday, November 2, 2018

On the heels of my post about virtually no asset classes in the black year-to-date, I wanted to highlight the fact that basic balanced funds were hit hard. As you can see both stocks AND bonds were negative in October. Stay Tuned,...

 

Thursday, November 1, 2018

As of the end of October, 89% of asset classes tracked by Deutsche Bank have a negative total return in $ terms. This is the highest percentage on record since 1901. Last year, just 1% finished with negative total return. Stay Tuned,...

 

Wednesday, October 31, 2018

After October spooked markets and then had the best two day rally in months, leaving investors scratching their heads: “The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible.” ~Bernard Baruch Stay...

 

Tuesday, October 30, 2018

Goldman Sachs put together this cool chart that outlines various election scenarios. However, regardless my view is the US economy and inflation are slowing on a year-over-year basis and no matter the outcome that will not change. Stay...

 

Monday, October 29, 2018

…Peter Schiff He recently tweeted out this piece of non-sense on China’s Financial Nuclear option: Victory plan for #China: 1. Dump all U.S. Treasuries. 2. Use proceeds to buy gold. 3. Peg yuan to gold rather than dollar....

 

Sunday, October 28, 2018

Total household debt hit a new record high, rising by $219 billion (1.6%) to $13.512 trillion in Q3 of 2018, according to the NY Fed’s latest household debt report, the biggest jump since 2016. It was also the 17th consecutive...

 

Saturday, October 27, 2018

This falls squarely under the ‘Don’t We Every Learn’ category. Thousands line up for zero-down-payment, subprime mortgages | CNBC Borrowers can have low credit scores, but have to go through an education session about...

 

Friday, October 26, 2018

Twitter – the platform not necessarily the stock – is a wonderful (but potentially toxic) platform if you follow (or not) informed sources with various viewpoints. Darius Dale has the Tweet of the Day this morning when...

 

Thursday, October 25, 2018

On the heels of this continued volatility (not going away anytime soon), I want you to take a step back, take a deep breathe and start to learn about your true risk tolerance. You will likely be more fearful when your investments are...

 

Wednesday, October 24, 2018

Market In Turmoil? How about Ratings In Turmoil! The median 3-month return following a CNBC special market report is +5.4% with 11 out of 12 positive. The sole loser was -0.2%. I am not saying that this is bullish indicator, just that...

 

Tuesday, October 23, 2018

While not specifically related to investing, the following two data points are mind numbing. According to Nielsen, the average American watches 28 HOURS OF TV PER WEEK! That more than an entire day! According to two research reports...

 

Monday, October 22, 2018

As I have discussed often the Federal Reserve balance sheet ballooned during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and rightfully so. They have been ‘slooooowly’ unwinding for a few years and then picked up the pace in 2018. As...

 

Sunday, October 21, 2018

This article and the below call outs are not prudent financial planning: Almost 1 in 3 homeowners who earn less than $30,000 per year said it’s OK to tap into home equity to cover their everyday bills, more than triple those who...

 

Saturday, October 20, 2018

Below is an update of the year-to-date peak to present pull back in various equity markets aroung the globe: -6% -7% -7% -7% -8% -9% -11% -11% -15% -16% -22% -31% -36% -47% Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor &...

 

Friday, October 19, 2018

On this day in 1987 the Dow fell 22%! That was a drop of 508 points. It was front page news, including the volume of trades that day. Today the same 22% fall would drop the Dow – wait for it – by 5,500 points. Now try to...

 

Thursday, October 18, 2018

According to S&P Global, 30 of 50 US states do not have sufficient reserves set aside today to absorb the financial impact of an economic recession, forcing them to raise taxes/fees or reduce benefits. Unfortunately, This Is A...

 

Wednesday, October 17, 2018

I’ll take “Reasons To Not Live In The Northeast” for $1,000 Alex. Answer: What Is $713,706. Question: What does it take to be part of the 1% in New York City? Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor &...

 

Tuesday, October 16, 2018

On the heels of my recent post on Corporate Debt to Cash Ratios, I wanted to provide an update on the European corporate debt markets, as well as an example of what this means for stock investors. In the below chart, you can see equity...

 

Monday, October 15, 2018

AND No Softer Side of Sears! Is the worst kept secret in all of finance, Sears officially filed for bankruptcy this morning. Eddie Lampert was profiled in BusinessWeek on November of 2004 and stepped down from the Chairman and CEO role...

 

Sunday, October 14, 2018

The cash-to-debt ratio of speculative-grade borrowers reached a record low of 12% in 2017, below the 14% level in 2008 — meaning that for every dollar they have in cash, they have $8 of debt. Corporations are borrowing against...

 

Saturday, October 13, 2018

Appended below is a great visual representation of the makeup of global stock markets. It is also a great representation on Home Country Bias. How many of you have 48% of your stock holdings in Developed and Emerging Markets? Stay...

 

Friday, October 12, 2018

While this post may be a bit wonky I wanted to provide actual facts instead of media spew. We often hear the phrase ‘cash on the sidelines’ or ‘investor buying power’ from those who want you to perpetually be...

 

Thursday, October 11, 2018

This is what the headlines blared on Wednesday night post the move lower in every broad US stock index: This chart add NO Value to anything – other than providing me a topic to rant on! Points don’t matter. Percentages do....

 

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Make sure that when you need your bonds to be diversifiers, they are. As you can see from the Chart of the Day, many sub-sectors of bonds are highly correlated with stocks. I realize rising interest rates can cause investor...

 

Tuesday, October 9, 2018

Cash as a % of Client Assets, Brokerage Accounts 2018: 10.3% 2017: 11.7% 2016: 14.1% 2015: 12.3% 2014: 13.5% 2013: 14.9% 2012: 18.2% 2011: 19.1% 2010: 24.3% 2009: 25.4% 2008: 12.5% 2007: 10.3% Sources: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg (2) The...

 

Monday, October 8, 2018

Overall, there are 10,929 ratings on stocks in the S&P 500. According to Factset, of these 10,929 ratings: 52.6% are Buy ratings 41.7% are Hold ratings 5.7% are Sell ratings Yet on any given day ~45% of stocks go down in value. Please...

 

Sunday, October 7, 2018

Stat of the Day The S&P 500 has outperformed international stocks over the past five, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40 and 45 years. But such measures can be misleading. Just a data point, not a conclusion! Stay Tuned, Disciplined &...

 

Saturday, October 6, 2018

Small-cap stocks were the outperformers of the market during the first half of this year. For three months, the group of companies with market caps of less than $2 billion has underperformed large-cap stocks. As you can see in the...

 

Friday, October 5, 2018

I thought I was done with this theme but then yesterday happened. We have just experienced the largest 2-day move in the volatility index (VIX) in over 5 years. $89 billion That’s how much the collective net worth of the...

 

Thursday, October 4, 2018

As mentioned yesterday, one issue that may throw a spanner into the works is that fact that this year we will have midterm elections. Since 1950, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index averaged a 3.1% gain in midterm Octobers, with 12...

 

Wednesday, October 3, 2018

Chart of the Day Remember, volatility can happen on the upside as well – stay tuned for tomorrow update for some brighter historical facts! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R...

 

Tuesday, October 2, 2018

Yesterday I mentioned that the month of October can be volatile for stock investors. What would make me state that? Data! Crashes 1929 1987 Swoons 1978 1979 1989 Global Financial Crisis 2008 Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...

 

Monday, October 1, 2018

This can be a spooky month for equity markets as volatility tends to rise, but history will show it may not be all bad. The 3 best gain days (by percentage) for the S&P 500 in the last 68 years (i.e., dating back to January 1950) all...

 

Sunday, September 30, 2018

Return Quilt As Of 09/30/2018 Thanks BA for the quarterly update! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may...

 

Saturday, September 29, 2018

Like I said yesterday, don’t trust the Fed’s Dot Plots. The market doesn’t! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember...

 

Saturday, September 29, 2018

According to JP Morgan, repatriation usage is as follows: 49% Debt Redemptions 46% Stock Repurchases 5% CapEx These funds are fungible meaning that the CFO will use them at their discretion based on perceived internal rates of returns....

 

Thursday, September 27, 2018

…Please Ignore Why? The Federal Reserve board record of estimating economic activity is – in one word – bad! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT...

 

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

When Predicting, Predict Often Without A Timeframe Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative...

 

Tuesday, September 25, 2018

Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments...

 

Monday, September 24, 2018

This is one way to keep your stock market moving higher! In essence the size of the holdings at the Bank of Japan are roughly the size of their entire economy! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation...

 

Sunday, September 23, 2018

Another look into divergences amongst global stock markets year-to-date. If you exclude the US, internationsl stock markets would be -1%. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Saturday, September 22, 2018

I couldn’t resist adding in the 3D printing investor hysteria as a comparison. Again, time has a way of correcting things! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT...

 

Friday, September 21, 2018

On the heels of my blog yesterday regarding the meteoric rise of volatility levels and price levels of a select few cannibis stocks, it reminded me of the salad days of the Internet Bubble. It seemed that nearly every day in 1999,...

 

Thursday, September 20, 2018

Tilray (a cannabis company w/ $28 million in sales) for a brief moment yesterday had a larger market cap than Best Buy (an electronics retailer w/ $43 billion in sales). At $21 billion, Tilray’s market cap was higher than 48% of...

 

Wednesday, September 19, 2018

In the Chart of the Day, I have been telling clients/prospects/friends/neighbors/anyone who will listen about the massive divergence in global stock market returns this year. After 2017 when it seemed ‘everything worked except...

 

Tuesday, September 18, 2018

“Investors should always keep in mind that the most important metric is not the returns achieved but the returns weighed against the risks incurred. Ultimately, nothing should be more important to investors than the ability to...

 

Monday, September 17, 2018

During the GOP sale of their tax bill, the repatriation of $4 trillion in overseas cash holdings was purported as a major advantage of lowering tax rates. A Wall Street Journal analysis of 108 companies with $2.7 trillion in profits...

 

Sunday, September 16, 2018

Cryptocurrency Version 0.5% Bitcoin is on track to consume 0.5% of the world’s electricity this year. The energy footprint for mining cryptocurrencies is doubling every six months. The world’s current bitcoin network uses...

 

Saturday, September 15, 2018

A decade on from the financial crisis, it’s worth taking a second to kick the tires on the global banking system just to make sure it doesn’t go down like that again. And while there’s still more to be done, banks...

 

Friday, September 14, 2018

No – my wife and I celebrated 21 years together earlier this month. The anniversary I am referencing is the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. Jason Zweig summed the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis as follows: Good things...

 

Thursday, September 13, 2018

One very important item (maybe the most important) I left out of the analysis of making the iPhone domestically is PROFITS. That estimate also incorporated maintaining the same profit margins that Apple enjoys by manufacturing these...

 

Wednesday, September 12, 2018

Question: How much would an iPhone cost if it all compenents were produced in the US and assembled here as well? Answer: ~$2,000 {This estimate includes the massive specialized technology supply chain movement. labor, parts, etc.} Yes...

 

Tuesday, September 11, 2018

“September 11 impressed upon us that life is a precious gift… And I think we all have a duty to devote at least a small portion of our daily lives to ensuring that neither America nor the world ever forgets September 11...

 

Monday, September 10, 2018

When asked about all of the reports recollecting what happened in the MIDDLE of the Global Financial Crisis, Keith McCullough of Hedgeye Risk Management has this to say: “I think it’s a great time in Macro to be a young...

 

Sunday, September 9, 2018

Notice I said ‘Try’ as this take practice, just like any other process. Here are more thoughts from Ninad Kunder: Consider Political Bias, which originates out of our political ideology and clouds our reading of the...

 

Saturday, September 8, 2018

To try and remove emotions from our investment process. Here is Ninad Kunder: It is amazing that rational people assume that leaders take rational decisions fully aware that they cater to our emotional responses. Our political mind is...

 

Friday, September 7, 2018

Times Change. Businesses Change. Stocks Change. This Will Continue. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may...

 

Thursday, September 6, 2018

With the President hinting at the potential for more tariffs this time on Japan, the full effects have yet to be seen. Cornerstone Macro, headed by Nancy Lazar, makes the point that second-order effects could be more significant than...

 

Wednesday, September 5, 2018

You read that right. Make a U-turn after you were told decades ago to Go West. California — long a destination of people trying to find somewhere to make it on their own — is now seeing an exodus of people who can’t...

 

Tuesday, September 4, 2018

Since 1950, no month sports a lower average return than September, with the S&P 500 Index down 0.47% on average. In the past 20 years, September has been the second-worst month, with only August fairing worse. More recently, over the...

 

Monday, September 3, 2018

Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments...

 

Sunday, September 2, 2018

“When you buy an asset and feel great about it, you are likely to lose money. When you buy an asset and feel a little sick to your stomach, you are likely to make a lot of money.” ~Mark Yusko Year-to-date, non-US stocks...

 

Saturday, September 1, 2018

“When dealing with people, remember you are not dealing with creatures of logic, but creatures of emotion.” ~Dale Carnegie Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Friday, August 31, 2018

Leveraged Loans While Moody’s may not have do a good job at understanding the credit cycle pre Global Financial Crisis, this piece seems to ryhme with other cautious memos. What are they? The loans have become popular in recent...

 

Thursday, August 30, 2018

Warren Buffett vs. Hedge Funds vs. S&P 500 According to Ian Cassel, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway compounded at 20.2% per year from 1965-2010. If Berkshire was a 2 & 20 hedge fund it would have returned 13.5% net to...

 

Wednesday, August 29, 2018

Just because an investment sounds good and exclusive doesn’t mean it will be. Some funds founded by Nathan Myhrvold, which raised ~$3 Billion to invest mostly in patents and new innovations, had NEGATIVE IRR of 15% to 24% in last...

 

Tuesday, August 28, 2018

I have stated ad nauseam about the longevity and liquidity issues with state and local pension plans. Well the Tennessee State Retirement System has felt the emerging markets pain over the past year. At various points they were the...

 

Monday, August 27, 2018

“Courage is not the absence of fear, but the capacity to act despite our fears.” ~John McCain (August 29, 1936 – August 25, 2018) Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S +...

 

Sunday, August 26, 2018

As I alluded to last week, this historic bull market may be the longest in duration without a recession, but as you can see below it has not been the most robust in history. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor &...

 

Saturday, August 25, 2018

Not according to the meeting minutes released this past week. And not according to history vs. Unemployment: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...

 

Friday, August 24, 2018

“Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy. Profit from folly rather than participate in it.” ~Warren Buffett Remember to proactively prepare your mind and your portfolio for volatility. When –...

 

Wednesday, August 22, 2018

In duration without a recession – yes. The bull market turns 3,453 days old today, marking the longest period of uninterrupted gains and no recession in American history. In robustness – no. Nevertheless, here is a cool...

 

Tuesday, August 21, 2018

With the S&P 500 hitting another new high intra-day, the chart below is a great reminder of why your focus should be on risk management and not capturing every tick higher. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor &...

 

Monday, August 20, 2018

Despite the recent stock market gains (one of the longest bull markets in history), large public pension plans still face a funding shortfall of $4 trillion because their liabilities are so large, according to Moody’s Investors...

 

Sunday, August 19, 2018

The #1 culprit is the rising US dollar this time. But weakness in this volatile asset class is not unusual – see below: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT...

 

Saturday, August 18, 2018

“Nothing so undermines your financial judgment as the sight of your neighbor getting rich.” ~J.P. Morgan Focus on you and what you control – full stop! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character...

 

Friday, August 17, 2018

“Being a singer is a natural gift. It means I am using to the highest degree the gift that God gave me to use. I am happy with that.” ~Aretha Franklin Investors need guidance answers Carl Richard’s Big Questions: How...

 

Thursday, August 16, 2018

Outlined below is the Average CEO-to-Worker Compensation ratio for the 350 largest firms in the US 2017: 312-to-1 2000: 344-to-1 (PEAK) 1989: 58-to-1 1965: 20-to-1 Source: Economic Policy Institute Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient!...

 

Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Global Divergences Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different...

 

Tuesday, August 14, 2018

Both Google (GOOG) and Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) went public in the summer of 2004. Which one has outperformed? GOOG = +2,395% DPZ = +4,271% Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Monday, August 13, 2018

Tariffs Trade Trump Tesla Twitter Tiger {As in Tiger Woods} Tidal Wave {As in riding an 80-foot wave!} Turkey Welcome to a quiet summer of trading! Today we will focus on Turkey. Their currency – the Lira – has crashed over...

 

Sunday, August 12, 2018

Again, not much to add… Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results....

 

Saturday, August 11, 2018

Not much else to add… Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results....

 

Friday, August 10, 2018

In making investments, I have always believed that you must act with discipline whenever you see something you truly like. To explain this philosophy, Buffett/Munger likes to use a baseball analogy that I find particularly illuminating...

 

Thursday, August 9, 2018

I may get a bit wonky with today’s entry but there are many similarities to how Stoics modeled their behavior and how investors can work to optimize their underlying strategies. Stoicism is also where my Investor/Character...

 

Wednesday, August 8, 2018

Need another reason to save for retirement? According to US Chamber of Commerce records, 12% of bankruptcy filings are by those age 65 or older. It may be late for some of you, but its never too late to start/improve the amount you are...

 

Tuesday, August 7, 2018

For those of you who maintain seperate trading accounts and subscribe to an investment newsletter, this article from the August AAII Journal should be read. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation...

 

Monday, August 6, 2018

Market History By Market Capitalization Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future...

 

Sunday, August 5, 2018

“The most important investment ability is an emotional discipline.” ~William Bernstein Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease...

 

Saturday, August 4, 2018

“Individuals who cannot master their emotions are ill-suited to profit from the investment process.” ~Benjamin Graham As I have stated over and over again on these pages, your brain is wired to survive by focusing on danger...

 

Friday, August 3, 2018

Diversification is not meant to – and will not – eliminate downside risk. It is an attempt to add lower correlated assets to a portfolio of stocks to smooth returns over a full market cycle. In the chart below, you can see...

 

Thursday, August 2, 2018

What was the first trillion dollar company by market capitalization? Apple? Nope. Petro China. November 5th, 2017. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...

 

Wednesday, August 1, 2018

Before you get nervous, please remember that in order to optimize your investment decisions you must optimize your mind. Having an unemotional, apolitical process can help. While we are not forecasting a recession, our data is...

 

Tuesday, July 31, 2018

Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have a combined market value greater than the GDP of France. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease...

 

Monday, July 30, 2018

It was great, in fact it hit a two year cycle high. However, expect it to start to get “less good” in the coming quarters. As of now both growth and inflation are mapping higher on a year-over-year basis. Thus 2-year US...

 

Sunday, July 29, 2018

I am sure few of you know but the United States Men’s National Lacrosse team prevailed in the World Championships earlier this month. As you can see from the chart below, we are holding up the best globally. Another intersting...

 

Saturday, July 28, 2018

Nothing to see here – move along! This is a chart of Venture Capital (VC) deals. These are deals that you and I are not exposed to and typically revolve around start-ups. As you can see there is a staggering amount of money being...

 

Friday, July 27, 2018

NOTE: This is not intended to be an investment recommendation, just information I found interesting relating to the topic of responsible investing! Personally and as a firm we are spending more time researching the ESG space. This...

 

Thursday, July 26, 2018

If this is not a sign of an economic slowdown in the 2nd largest economy in the world I am not sure what is! The chart appended below is a brief outline of the monetary policy actions by the Bank of China to stimulate their economy. No...

 

Wednesday, July 25, 2018

As you can see from the chart below it has been some time since the yield on the 2-Year US Treasury note eclipsed that of the S&P 500 dividend yield. This is due to the fact that the Federal Reserve has continued to raise short-term...

 

Tuesday, July 24, 2018

After some time on the beach and with the arrival of Shark Week on the Discovery Channel, I thought this story of a 20-foot great white shark named ‘Deep Blue’ and the below chart seemed appropriate: Chart of the Day As you...

 

Monday, July 23, 2018

Yes… 9 of the last 9 recessions started with one. But …. The 2-Year to 10-Year US Treasury bonds inverted in Dec 1988, May 1998, and Jan 2006. S&P 500 peaked 19, 22, and 21 months later. It gained +33.2%, +39.6%, and +22...

 

Sunday, July 22, 2018

What this term really means is what is your capacity to suffer losses. FACT #1: Since 1980, the average annual intra-year drawdown is 14% for the S&P 500. INSIGHT: It has been a few years since this has happened so PLEASE do not...

 

Saturday, July 21, 2018

Today: 100% Stocks (S&P 500) + 0% Bonds (Barclays Aggregate Bond Index Time Frame: 40 years Average Annual Return = 11.3% Best year (1995) = 37.6% Worst Year (2008) = -37.0% Source: Zacks Investment Management Stay Tuned, Disciplined &...

 

Friday, July 20, 2018

Today: 80% Stocks (S&P 500) + 20% Bonds (Barclays Aggregate Bond Index) Time Frame: 40 years Average Annual Return = 10.8% Best year (1982) = 33.6% Worst Year (1994) = -29.8% Source: Zacks Investment Management Stay Tuned, Disciplined...

 

Thursday, July 19, 2018

Today: 60% Stocks (S&P 500) + 40% Bonds (Barclays Aggregate Bond Index) Time Frame: 40 yearsAverage Annual Return = 10.2%Best year (1982) = 29.7%Worst Year (1994) = -22.1%Source: Zacks Investment Management Stay Tuned, Disciplined &...

 

Wednesday, July 18, 2018

Today: 40% Stocks (S&P 500) + 60% Bonds (Barclays Aggregate Bond Index) Time Frame: 40 years Avearge Annual Return = 9.4% Best year (1982) = 28.4% Worst Year (1994) = -13.6% Source: Zacks Investment Management Stay Tuned, Disciplined &...

 

Tuesday, July 17, 2018

Today: 20% Stocks (S&P 500) + 80% Bonds (Barclays Aggregate Bond Index) Time Frame: 40 years Avearge Annual Return = 8.6% Best year (1982) = 30.6% Worst Year (1994) = -4.6% Source: Zacks Investment Management Stay Tuned, Disciplined &...

 

Monday, July 16, 2018

Over the next several days, I will augment my normal market update with historical data on returns for various mixes of asset classes. Today: 0% Stocks (S&P 500) + 100 % Bonds (Barclays Aggregate Bond Index) Time Frame: 40 years...

 

Sunday, July 15, 2018

“America is an idea. Ireland is a great country, but it’s not an idea. Great Britain is a great country, but it’s not an idea. That’s how we see you around the world, as one of the greatest ideas in human...

 

Saturday, July 14, 2018

“The best Armour of Old Age is a well spent life preceding it; a Life employed in the Pursuit of useful Knowledge, in honourable Actions and the Practice of Virtue; in which he who labours to improve himself from his Youth, will...

 

Friday, July 13, 2018

Concentration at the top. That proportion of a handful of stocks leading the market is nothing new, however, according to Ned Davis Research Group Chief U.S. Strategist Ed Clissold: “The top five stocks have often had a higher...

 

Thursday, July 12, 2018

One of the most interesting features of the new tax bill passed in 2017 was the creation an Opportunity Zone. With the decade long bull market, most investors have large capital gains. This program allows them to defer paying taxes for...

 

Wednesday, July 11, 2018

All of this happens each minute of every day globally: 187 million emails 18 million text messages 4.3 million @YouTube videos viewed 3.7 million @google searches 2.4 million @snapchat 971K @facebook logins 481K @twitter messages 266K...

 

Tuesday, July 10, 2018

YUM Brands (YUM) could triple in value and that would have the same effect on the S&P 500 as Apple (AAPL) gaining 1%. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O DisclosurePlease...

 

Monday, July 9, 2018

I will be on the beach for a bit, so will the blog! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O DisclosurePlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results....

 

Sunday, July 8, 2018

A) They are predicting a slowdown in the US economy in the back half of 2018. OR B) S&P 500 companies are contributing to pension plans this year at a pace expected to nearly match 2017’s level, which at $63 billion was the most...

 

Saturday, July 7, 2018

Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O DisclosurePlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying...

 

Friday, July 6, 2018

Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O DisclosurePlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying...

 

Thursday, July 5, 2018

According to a research note from Goldman Sachs: Growth stocks are highly represented among S&P 500’s top 10 return contributors [and] the top 10 stocks have contributed more than 100% of S&P 500’s YTD return....

 

Wednesday, July 4, 2018

Happy 4th of July! Here is my annual post on the birth of our national anthem. Being a native of Baltimore I thought I would take this July 4th as an opportunity to again provide you with the background on our national anthem: The year...

 

Tuesday, July 3, 2018

Another Chart(s) of the Day. Start to mentally prepare yourself for the coming bear market. How do I know there will be a bear market? Because there always is. AND there has always been a recovery. So if you need cash in the near-term,...

 

Monday, July 2, 2018

There is no Holy Grail in the markets. Many investors solely focus on dividend paying stocks. While over time they historically outperform over a full market cycle (specifically those that raise their dividends), this does not mean you...

 

Sunday, July 1, 2018

Talking head Suzie Orman sold 3 million copies of her book The 9 Steps to Financial Freedom. The world’s leading academic investment publication, The Journal of Finance has a circulation of … 8,000. Stay Tuned, Disciplined...

 

Saturday, June 30, 2018

Thursday afternoon, a gunman armed with smoke grenades and a shotgun stormed into the newsroom of my hometown paper, the Capital Gazette in Annapolis, Maryland, shooting five of its employees dead and injuring two others. “I can...

 

Friday, June 29, 2018

…200-Day Moving Average Charts Unless you want to churn your account. See the chart below (h/t Josh Brown) and the whipsaw nature of the markets around the 200-Day Moving Average during 2000-2001. In general, this is one of many...

 

Thursday, June 28, 2018

As a follow-up to a recent Market Morsels note on Growth Over Value, here is my Chart of the Day showing how just how much and how long value stocks have underperformed. Reversion to the mean is an iron law of investing so this is...

 

Wednesday, June 27, 2018

Risk Management: Isn’t about avoiding risks, it’s about understanding risk and potential downside. Cost: A focus on cost (which is an item you can control) should be about value delivered, not absolute price. Stay Tuned,...

 

Tuesday, June 26, 2018

Yes Virginia the stock market in the US can go down. We saw a broad sell-off yesterday, although if you have been carefully following my blogs this weakness has been an issue for most of this year for countries like China (-20% since...

 

Monday, June 25, 2018

While in all honesty I have – and neither does anyone else – an idea of what the market is going to do today, I can give you historical data, but no one really knows. In conversations I am often asked what is moving the...

 

Sunday, June 24, 2018

…For Now! JPMorgan’s Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou was out with the latest version of the bank’s popular “Flows And Liquidity” series last week and touched upon foreign profit repatriation and share repurchases...

 

Saturday, June 23, 2018

In this Chart of the Day provided by Vala Afshar, these companies disrupted old line operaters with answering the question, “What problem can I solve for my customer with innovation and creativity?” Stay Tuned, Disciplined...

 

Friday, June 22, 2018

Growth vs. Value Over the past 10 years, the S&P 500 Value Index of companies selling at low prices relative to their earnings, revenues and net worth has returned an average of 7.1% annually. The S&P 500 Growth Index — stocks...

 

Thursday, June 21, 2018

As the US had the highest level of snow cover for April in history, I fully welcome hazy, hot and humid! And with the S&P up over 3% as we hit summer, I would welcome historical returns. Now, many markets are not doing well (think...

 

Wednesday, June 20, 2018

Specifically in Emerging Markets and Europe. The below results clearly dispell the Wall Street myth of a Synchronized Global Recovery: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Tuesday, June 19, 2018

Morningstar has recently released a new white paper on manager underperformance. In short, even the best managers will go through period of underperformance. I know, I already told you that: here, here and here or search my blog for...

 

Monday, June 18, 2018

This is a topic that will always be discussed as long as active management is utilized. The question I always ask is: Do investors have the capacity and discipline to stick with their investment strategy over time? Why do I bring it up...

 

Sunday, June 17, 2018

Happy Father’s Day I want all of you to have a little fun this Sunday morning. A few weeks ago my wife and I enjoyed waching the Royal Wedding. Leave it to the internet to create a fun game to play called: My Royal Wedding Name...

 

Saturday, June 16, 2018

Play has begun in earnest and this weekend my son and I will be watching the World Cup group stage matches and attending his soccer tournament. Appended below is a cool chart on market rates of return when certain countries win. Vive...

 

Friday, June 15, 2018

After posting a few highlights from Mary Meeker’s Internet Trends report, I keep coming back to this chart. US adults now spend 5.9 hours a day on-line. This will soon overtake sleep. And it doesn’t register today’s...

 

Thursday, June 14, 2018

After posting a note on San Francisco real estate, here is a $1 million gem in downtown Vancouver: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O DisclosurePlease remember that past...

 

Wednesday, June 13, 2018

Chart of the Day New Government? No Worries. Total Number of Governments Since 1945 Just The Facts The State of New Jersey It is the worst-funded public pension of any U.S. state, the second-lowest credit rating, lagging economic...

 

Tuesday, June 12, 2018

It has been an adventurous few days as my hard drive decided to stop working and I am now getting back on track so expect a flurry of posts. Pictured below is a beautiful 6,350 square foot home in San Fransisco. 2219 Stock Street Any...

 

Monday, June 11, 2018

We continue on the example through the same lense to analyze Large Caps. Here is an example from Fuller & Thaler Asset Management: Asset Class: Large Caps Time Period: 20 Years Ending September 30,2016 Measure: Percent of 3-Year...

 

Sunday, June 10, 2018

How about both? The debate rages on as to your school of thought: buy and index and set it and forget it to obtain the average return of the index or allocate capital to active managers that are trying to outperform the index. We say,...

 

Saturday, June 9, 2018

These are the largest 25 companies by market capitalization starting in 1927. The yellow highlights the top 25 or their offspring. Follow the yellow brick road! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation...

 

Friday, June 8, 2018

All too often investor look at investments as just a piece of paper. If you are a TRADER, this is a fair assessment. A means to an end. If you are an INVESTOR you should alter your mindset. If you are looking to allocate long-term...

 

Thursday, June 7, 2018

Her much anticipated annual report was released last week. In came in at 294 slides and is chock full of data. If you are so inclined here is the video of her presentation. Don’t fret I parsed some highlights and insights for...

 

Wednesday, June 6, 2018

D-Day. June 6, 1944. The Eyes of the World Are Upon You General Dwight D. Eisenhower's 'Letter In-Case of Failure' It reads: “Our landings in the Cherbourg-Havre area have failed to gain a satisfactory foothold and I have...

 

Tuesday, June 5, 2018

Charts of the Day Quantitative Tightening (QT) Has led to a rise in interest rates via the 10-Year US Treasury bond: It is not just QT in the US but globally: So what does this mean? With the rapid expansion in private sector leverage...

 

Monday, June 4, 2018

I saw a fascintating article on Bloomberg BusinessWeek recently that detailed how subprime mortgages are being originated and backed by the government. Getting Rich on Government-Back Mortgages Yup you read that right. Check out his...

 

Sunday, June 3, 2018

Chart of the Day How many times have you turned on financial news media and heard the following phrase: The Easy Money Has Been Made If your financial advice is free – you get what you pay for! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient!...

 

Saturday, June 2, 2018

Charts of the Day I have opined the this week on the Federal Reserve and their actions regarding future interest rate moves and Quantitative Tightening (QT): Wall of Maturities, Emerging Market Currency Crisis and A Thought Experiment....

 

Friday, June 1, 2018

While your thoughts this Friday morning may be turning to the weekend (or a two day soccer tournament in the rain), I want to offer some data to chew on. There was a formula developed by Larry Jeddeloh at TIS Group to attempt to gauge...

 

Thursday, May 31, 2018

An update: The recent turbulence in emerging markets (EM) has so far prompted a pause on rate cuts from Brazil, triggered the first rate hike since 2014 from Bank Indonesia, prompted multiple dramatic rate hikes from Argentina’s...

 

Wednesday, May 30, 2018

Since 2009, the level of global nonfinancial companies rated as speculative, or junk, has surged by 58%, to the highest level ever. With 40% rated B1 or lower, the point that Moody’s considers “highly speculative,” as...

 

Tuesday, May 29, 2018

Chart of the Day While many corporate balance sheets are solid thanks to low interest rates and a nine year growth spurt, there is a ‘mountain’ of bonds maturing over the next 10 years. This is yet another factor that the...

 

Monday, May 28, 2018

On what is now a tradition on my blog, Memorial Day is a time to reflect on the brave men and women who sacrificed the ultimate gift – life – to protect our freedoms. This is the story of Travis Manion and Brendan Looney....

 

Sunday, May 27, 2018

The Vatican released a 15-page document attacking global capitalism, calling for greater regulation of the financial system: “The spread of [credit default swaps] without proper limits has encouraged the growth of a finance of...

 

Saturday, May 26, 2018

I wanted to refresh my Investor Character Equation of Stimulus + Reaction = Outcome with some research from The Behavioral Edge by Fuller & Thaler. Traditional finance and investing techniques are based on one key variable: that...

 

Friday, May 25, 2018

Ego. From his book The Most Important Thing: The sixth key influence is ego. It can be enormously challenging to remain objective and calculating in the face of facts like these: Investment results are evaluated and compared in the...

 

Thursday, May 24, 2018

Ironically, AEI put together this list on the heels of my Netflix vs. Blockbuster post. Only 53 US companies have been on the Fortune 500 since 1955, thanks to the creative destruction that fuels economic prosperity. Stay Tuned,...

 

Wednesday, May 23, 2018

Blockbuster vs. Netflix Today in market history, 2002: Netflix raises $82.5 million in its initial public offering, with a total valuation of $300 million. Blockbuster Video had raked in about $800 million in late fees that same year....

 

Tuesday, May 22, 2018

The Fed Is On The Wall I don’t know if you’ve seen this but Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic has just walked back some of the hawkish rhetoric from the Fed. Bloomberg quoted him last week as saying, “I have had...

 

Monday, May 21, 2018

This past issue of Barron’s had an interesting article on the Father of Index Investing, Jack Bogle. While the creation of index funds revolutionized the capital allocation process, there is a difference in how to effectively...

 

Sunday, May 20, 2018

The details of this program sound more like a Sci-Fi movie than real life! Here is the headline: China Turns to Tech to Monitor, Shame, Rate Citizens By 2020, China plans to give all of its 1.4 billion citizens a personal score, based...

 

Saturday, May 19, 2018

Sorry to put a damper on your Saturday – actually more of a damper if you live in the northeast with the amout of rain we have had this week. However, after my updates on the need for saving more and the looming retirement crisis...

 

Friday, May 18, 2018

On the heels of my Chart of the Day yesterday, I wanted to drive home the point of why it is so important to save. This is something that is firmly within your control. unlike the short-term movements of stocks, bonds and commodities....

 

Thursday, May 17, 2018

Today in market history, 1792: The Buttonwood Agreement is signed, forming the New York Stock & Exchange Board. I saw this neat chart in a recent Fidelity presentation on retirement and saving. While it makes sense to start saving and...

 

Wednesday, May 16, 2018

Borrowers in the U.S. are defaulting on subprime auto loans at a higher rate than during the financial crisis, according to Fitch Ratings. Lenders are responding by pulling back on financing to applicants with shaky credit histories...

 

Tuesday, May 15, 2018

I had to do a double take when reading this story in The Wall Street Journal. Residential Transition Loans Borrowers of residential transitional loans—or flip loans, as they are better known—use the money to buy a property,...

 

Monday, May 14, 2018

This is not a buy or sell recommendation just a prime example of how culture wins not only on the field of play but in business. Costco pays incredibly good wages relative to competitors. Costco pays employees an average of 72% more...

 

Sunday, May 13, 2018

David Tepper Expected To Buy The Carolina Panthers Of The NFL For An Unprecedented $2.2 Billion As a hedge fund manager he know about the Investor Charater Equation | S + R = O “If I go through my career, there’s a lot of...

 

Saturday, May 12, 2018

Think about this for a few moments: 7 out of 10 children entering elementary schools today will have jobs that don’t exist today. Here are some jobs invented just in last 10 years: App developer (This is not a short-order cook)...

 

Friday, May 11, 2018

According to data from the Federal Reserve, the total amount of student debt in the United States is now $1.5 trillion. That’s more than the estimated $1.3 trillion in direct costs that the government spent fighting the War in...

 

Thursday, May 10, 2018

Appended below is an interesting chart of historical stock market performace during and after mid-term elections – courtesy of Liz Ann Sonders. As you can see the average drawdown is 17%. This compares to an average drawdown of...

 

Wednesday, May 9, 2018

On Learning “Any place you can find somebody that gives you insights into things you didn’t understand before—and maybe makes you a better person than you would have been before—that’s very lucky and you...

 

Tuesday, May 8, 2018

This time he answers questions on CNBC post-shareholder meeting with additional details: On the market: Stocks aren’t in a bubble now. Though said some private deal valuations are getting high and it’s harder to find...

 

Monday, May 7, 2018

I wanted to save you 8 hours and highlight a few of Warren Buffett’s answers during the annual Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting: On Bitcoin: “It’s probably rat poison squared.” On the tax cuts: “It is...

 

Sunday, May 6, 2018

On the heels of the pilgramage to Omaha, NE for the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting this past weekend, I found it interesting that the this metric received little fan fare during Warren Buffett’s (age 87) 8 hours of Q&A with...

 

Saturday, May 5, 2018

If you would like to follow along, you can view the livestream in real time. The event kick-off this morning at 9:45 AM EST. Enjoy! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Friday, May 4, 2018

The montly Non-Farm Payroll report was released today. While this is always a big headliner in the financial markets, it is reporting on the past month and does not give an indication of future employment trends. However, it is hard to...

 

Thursday, May 3, 2018

With the calendar turning to May, the economic expansion officially hit 107 months. This ranks as the 2nd longest expansion since WWII: May ’91 – 120 months June ’09 (current) – 107 months Feb ’61 –...

 

Wednesday, May 2, 2018

Yes there is some ‘click-bait’ in this but after reading the story I thought I would share. Legendary investment banker Richard Jenrette passed away last week. At his office within his desk they found his List. What I...

 

Tuesday, May 1, 2018

Spring – you are welcome to arrive at any time! Historically, May stock market returns are mixed to positive. The average positive S&P 500 Midterm May has been up +3.3%. However, the average negative S&P 500 Midterm May has been...

 

Monday, April 30, 2018

Why Protect The Downside? MATH! One way to potentially execute downside protection – outside of cash? Long/Short equity strategies. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Sunday, April 29, 2018

It is unbelievable but Americans lost track of more than $7.7 billion in retirement savings in 2015, according to the National Association of Unclaimed Property Administrators (NAUPA). If you have lost track of old 401(k) or other...

 

Saturday, April 28, 2018

Inflation or Deflation Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O DisclosurePlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments...

 

Friday, April 27, 2018

77% According to FactSet, 77% of S&P 500 companies reported actual sales above estimated sales for Q4 2017—the highest percentage since FactSet began tracking this data in 2008. 88% 88% of the companies on the Fortune 500 list in...

 

Thursday, April 26, 2018

…To Determine The Next Recession No I am not referring to an inverted yield curve – although that is one. Researchers at Notre Dame have found another: fertility rates. “Many papers show that aggregate fertility is...

 

Wednesday, April 25, 2018

And not just as a hedge against rising interest rates, but also against stock gyrations. For today’s note we are going to focus on how hedge funds perform versus stocks during periods of sustained Fed tightening, like the one we...

 

Tuesday, April 24, 2018

You know my thoughts on forecasting – it’s hard and rarely useful. Below is a chart from the Atlanta Fed outlining their predictions of GDP. In the span of two months they have gone from 5.4% to 2%. This is what I call...

 

Monday, April 23, 2018

And not just as a hedge against declining stock prices, but also rising interest rates. For today’s note we are going to focus on how hedge funds perform versus bonds during periods of sustained Fed tightening, like the one we...

 

Sunday, April 22, 2018

Earth Day turned 48 on Sunday, April 22. Senator Gaylord Nelson (D-WI) founded Earth Day in 1970. His hope was to make the environment a political issue in an era when US rivers caught on fire and thick smog choked cities. One of the...

 

Saturday, April 21, 2018

While the domestic stock markets have levitated higher over the past few weeks, I am here to remind you that we appear to be BACK in a more normalized regime for volatility. What does that mean you ask? Since 1930, US stocks have...

 

Friday, April 20, 2018

Here is the 2017 Amazon shareholder letter for your weekend consumption. “High standards are contagious…The opposite is also true.” People are mirrors of their environments. Culture is an invisible force that is...

 

Thursday, April 19, 2018

Be Very Skeptical…of CEO’s and managment teams telling you they know the future. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O DisclosurePlease remember that past performance...

 

Wednesday, April 18, 2018

…Move Along Do you think the nations infrastructure needs repairs? Spectrum News NY1 ✔@NY1 More subway waterfalls. This was one commuter's view when the subway doors opened at 42nd Street-Bryant Park. (Video courtesy @BretHyde)...

 

Tuesday, April 17, 2018

Happy Tax Day!?!? By the way…the IRS does not accept checks over $100 million FYI! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O DisclosurePlease remember that past performance may...

 

Monday, April 16, 2018

With the US Postal Service in the news as President Trump takes aim, I can’t believe this law was ever passed: Just another jobs program. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R =...

 

Sunday, April 15, 2018

In my latest post I referenced the concentrated nature of the return stream of domestic equities. While it is nice to have exposure to these names, as you can imagine it typically does not end well. As of the end of February 2018, the...

 

Saturday, April 14, 2018

It paid to hold these stocks for the last few years! As a reminder: Facebook Apple Amazon Microsoft Google All data through 03/31/2018 FAAMG Returns YTD = 4.1% S&P 500 Returns YTD = -0.8% S&P 500 Excluding FAAMG’s YTD = -1.4%...

 

Friday, April 13, 2018

On this day in 1970 those words were spoken from Apollo 13. “New Jersey, we have a problem.” If our current politicians have any say, those words will never be uttered by them. It will be kicked to someone else to deal with...

 

Thursday, April 12, 2018

According to PGIM, you should: Stick To Your Allocation During Times of Volatility. I have been telling you that, but they have some data! PGIM evaluated a 68-year time period with 26 volatility spikes and 25 post-peak events....

 

Wednesday, April 11, 2018

Below you will see that 108 consecutive months of global central bank easing has come to an end. This chart provided by Liz Ann Sonders outlines the fact that financial conditions are tightening across the globe. The issue to watch...

 

Tuesday, April 10, 2018

Later in his letter, Dimon admits that the US is facing some serious economic headwinds today. For one, he’s concerned the unwinding of quantitative easing (QE) could have unintended consequences on the economy. Remember- QE was...

 

Monday, April 9, 2018

But first here is an awesome video of a Noelle Lambert, a women’s lacrosse player from UMass-Lowell scoring her first goal of the season after lossing a leg in a moped accident in 2016. Awesome! To continue on my comments...

 

Sunday, April 8, 2018

After Friday’s 2% sell-off, I wanted to highlight two masters and their thoughts on volatility: “As long as the odds are in our favor and we’re not risking the whole company on one throw of the dice or anything close...

 

Saturday, April 7, 2018

Along with Warren Buffett and the investment managers we utilize for clients, Jamie Dimon’s annual letter to JP Morgan shareholders is a must read for me. He is an excellent writer and opines on broad topics from his perch atop...

 

Friday, April 6, 2018

Asset Class returns updated through March 31, 2018 I challange you to review and find a pattern that you can invest in now to capitalize on what asset class will be at the top next quarter. One interesting stat is the MSCI Emerging...

 

Thursday, April 5, 2018

I thought when the Masters started it was the real start of spring? I guess Mother Nature didn’t get the memo this year. The Masters at Augusta is a perfect segway to the Golden Bear and my S+R=O Investor Equation: “Success...

 

Wednesday, April 4, 2018

Thus far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had 11 sessions when it rose by at least 1%, including Monday, in addition to another 13 where it fell by at least that much, counting Tuesday. While swings of that magnitude are...

 

Tuesday, April 3, 2018

Below are exerpts from the blog Safal Niveshak and in just two paragraphs he outlines to a client the NEED for volatility: “If you study Nassim Taleb, markets are organic and complex systems, not machines to be fixed. And by...

 

Monday, April 2, 2018

Easter Monday Money Fact: Americans spend about $2.4 billion strictly on Easter candy. I ate my fair share of any sort of chocolate/peanut butter combo over the weekend! According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, April has...

 

Sunday, April 1, 2018

It’s a bird. It’s a plane. It’s an uncontrollable international Chineses space station. A 9.4-ton Chinese space station will soon begin falling to Earth and New Jersey is part of a swath of the planet where debris...

 

Saturday, March 31, 2018

The first quarter of 2018 had a negative total return for both the S&P 500 and Barclays US Aggregate. This is the first time since the 3rd quarter of 2008. And only the 8th time in the last 30 years. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient!...

 

Thursday, March 29, 2018

A new volatilite regime is upon us. Here is the proof: For the S&P 500, the 1st quarter of 2018 will finish with at least five -2% days (no matter what happens today). Since 1985, there have only been 4 other years with at least five...

 

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

After yesterday massive intraday swing and on the heels of a few manic months, it appears we are in a new risk regime. Meaning we will be locked in a battle of major market swings both high and low, which will lead to a grinding out of...

 

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Caveat: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any individual securities mentioned below. Sometimes I am just not sure what our government is thinking. The latest example is the blocking of the AT&T and Time Warner merger. While...

 

Monday, March 26, 2018

Thought of the Day There are few things an investor can control and the movement of the markets certainly are not one of them. This is why my concept of the Investor & Character Equation applies to all facets of life, especially...

 

Sunday, March 25, 2018

Yes another chart, but this one fits squarely into my S+R=O equation. They outline Cognitive Biases that can be mapped over to investing. I will go out on a limb and say virtually ever investor suffers from many of these. One of the...

 

Saturday, March 24, 2018

I absolutely love the daily e-mails I get from Visual Capitalist. They range in subject matter from OBOR (China’s Most Ambitious Megaprojecy) to Autonomous Vehicles. Today’s visual is a crash course on personal finance....

 

Friday, March 23, 2018

One of the latest Wall Street gimmicks was that unconstrained, flexible bond funds would allow you to maintain exposure to bonds, provided diversification with bond-like returns without the worry of higher interest rates. Exactly...

 

Thursday, March 22, 2018

It has only been one press conference but it appears the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jay Powell may be a bit more realistic and straight forward than his predecessors. First, his press conference actually ended 15 minutes...

 

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Another risk to investing in bonds is reaching for yield. This is something investors have struggled with since interest rates were slashed to zero a decade ago. While it is nice to pick-up additional income, it does come with risk....

 

Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Tomorrow the Federal Reserve will most likely raise interest rates by 0.25% as it continues to tighten monetary conditions. This will be the sixth rate increase since the Fed lowered rates to zero during the Global Financial Crisis....

 

Monday, March 19, 2018

Elizabeth Holmes, the CEO and founder of “game-changing blood testing company” Theranos, has seen her profile and company implode. She, along with the former president and the company itself, has been charged by the SEC for...

 

Sunday, March 18, 2018

Helping a young person fund an IRA—especially a Roth IRA—can be a great way to give them a head start on saving for retirement. This is mainly due to the power of compounding over a longer the timeline and taking advantage...

 

Saturday, March 17, 2018

FAANG Update First, a reminder of the players: Facebook Apple Amazon Netflix Google The details: The 5 FAANG names collectively have a ~12% weighting in S&P 500 as of Friday’s close The Cap-Weighted total return from that 12%...

 

Friday, March 16, 2018

Dr. Richard Thaler “The crazy thing is thinking humans always act logically.” This is a key pillar of my Investor & Character Equation and why it is so important that investors realize their short comings and what they can...

 

Thursday, March 15, 2018

According to the US Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, investors have borrowed a record $642.8 billion against investment portfolios. The leverage from this margin debt is a bid to increase returns. However, it leaves investors...

 

Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Stephen Hawking “Intelligence is the ability to adapt to change.” I hope the mysteries of the universe have been revealed to this visionary physicist! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character...

 

Tuesday, March 13, 2018

Researchers studied a sample size of 235,000 vasectomies in the U.S. across a 2-year span. On average, 279.5 vasectomies were performed each week. However, during the first week of the NCAA Tournament? 364. A 30% increase! Some credit...

 

Monday, March 12, 2018

We have just experienced the second longest US expansion in history. Well, actually it is a tie. The current U.S. economic expansion has continued now, uninterrupted, for 106 months with no recession. The average U.S. expansion lasts...

 

Sunday, March 11, 2018

It is not just individual investors who reach for yield. Bond managers often reach for yield thinking they can outsmart the market on rates and increase the income without sacrificing volatility and/or potential losses. According to...

 

Friday, March 9, 2018

On this day 9 years ago, the stock market bottomed marking the low of the Global Financial Crisis. To celebrate, Nerd Wallet highlighted 9 Facts for 9 Years: 1. Day 1 starts with a bang On Wall Street, bear markets are periods of...

 

Thursday, March 8, 2018

In support of all of the wonderful women, including my wife and daughter, I thought I would post an interesting note on women in finance. Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) recently compiled data on this topic. And what they found...

 

Wednesday, March 7, 2018

Danielle Lacalle “If a technology is viable, it does not need subsidies. If it is unviable, no subsidies will change it.” Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Tuesday, March 6, 2018

First to (Almost) Worst The #1 performing stock in the S&P 500 during 2017 was ranked # 491 during January 2018, down 8.7% last month after gaining +132.3% last year, according to BTN Research. Exclusive Club What does it take to get...

 

Monday, March 5, 2018

Emerging Markets, Volatility & Valuations Great insights into the above three themes from WisdomTree. Emerging Markets Outperform During The Correction One thing we found interesting was that during the height of the correction, the...

 

Sunday, March 4, 2018

In a short nine day period US stocks dropped into correction territory which is defined as a loss of 10% from recent highs. By the end of the month, the S&P 500 had rebounded by 5.1% from their February 8th lows. This monthly loss was...

 

Saturday, March 3, 2018

Where have all of the publicly trades companies gone? Data courtesy of Credit Suisse The Wilshire 5000 is made up of 3,492 publicly traded companies. Total listed domestic companies fell from 7,322 at its peak in 1996 to 3,671 in 2016,...

 

Friday, March 2, 2018

Great brief by Vishal at Safal Niveshak on the first page of the Berkshire Annual Report. Losing Less = Making More Long-Term Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O DisclosurePlease...

 

Thursday, March 1, 2018

After my post on the underperformance of Warren Buffett, I wanted to provide a bit more context. In the short-term, his stock picks have underperformed 8 of the last 10 years. However, dating back to 2000, his stock picks have...

 

Wednesday, February 28, 2018

On the heels of Warren Buffett’s annual letter release, I wanted to highlight an interesting fact. Warren Buffett has underperformed the S&P 500 by 30% over rolling 1-year time periods 5 times! Yes – you read that correctly...

 

Tuesday, February 27, 2018

This chart at the end of Vanguards 2018 Outlook dovetails perfectly into my Investor + Character Equation of S + R = O. Vanguard also realized that their 35 page outlook will not have nearly the same effect on your long-term goals as...

 

Monday, February 26, 2018

$12 Billion That’s how much NBC paid for the rights to broadcast the Olympics from 2014 through 2032. That enormous investment is doing fine, but a ratings slide may be making some at Comcast a little skittish. Viewership of the...

 

Sunday, February 25, 2018

This is my Chart of the Day: As we mentioned previously Warren Buffett is bullish...on America. He should have added...bullish on America over the long-term. Because in the near-term his favorite valuation metric (shown above) is not...

 

Saturday, February 24, 2018

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway annual letter was released on Saturday. I am going to be highlighting certain sections for my readers throughout the next few weeks. While he didn’t touch upon in detail his succession...

 

Friday, February 23, 2018

Facts of the Day Amazon (AMZN) has accounted for ~30% of the S&P 500 gains year-to-date. Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX) and Microsoft (MSFT) together have contributed close to 50% of the index gains. And the Technology sector overall...

 

Thursday, February 22, 2018

The team at Chenmark Capital recently spoke of the great nuance to managing business growth with a long-term perspective. It’s not that growth is as inherently good or bad as it may seem when looking at things through the lens of...

 

Wednesday, February 21, 2018

Charts of the Day Going back to 1871 when the data set begins, the average CAPE Ratio is 16.79. At its current value of 31.09, the CAPE is 85% above that average, meaning the S&P 500 would need to drop 46% tomorrow for valuations to...

 

Tuesday, February 20, 2018

There seems to be a divergence in market returns but unless you are a day trader you probably didn’t notice. Bespoke Research separated the daytime and the after-hour returns and calculated them cumulatively. As it turns out that...

 

Monday, February 19, 2018

As I have opined in prior writings, valuations are not catalyst to move the market in either direction. And no it did not cause the 10% sell-off earlier this month. The U.S. stock market today has only been this expensive just before...

 

Sunday, February 18, 2018

Pick a side: Team A Amazon Apple Facebook Team B Best Buy Blackberry Hawaiian Airline Team A right? Right? Nope. Team B outperformed Team A over the last 5 years. It is not always about the headlines and the big names. Stay Tuned,...

 

Saturday, February 17, 2018

Charlie Munger “It takes character to sit with all that cash and to do nothing. I didn’t get to where I am by going after mediocre opportunities.” Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character...

 

Friday, February 16, 2018

By Howard Marks February 2016 “My buddy Sandy was an airline pilot. When asked to describe his job, he always answers, “hours of boredom punctuated by moments of terror.” The same can be true for investment managers,...

 

Thursday, February 15, 2018

Dating back to 1945, the S&P 500 has had 27 declines of between 10-20%. We did eclipse 10% this month. The average decline in those periods was 14%. The average length of the decline was 4 months, so this may not be over. So…...

 

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

The last few weeks have been a roller coast up AND down. If you feel your mood being dictated by the moves of the market, you need to step back and turn off the TV. Unless you are a day trader and need to know every tick of a stock or...

 

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

So very true! Don’t fall for the click-bait. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O DisclosurePlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results....

 

Monday, February 12, 2018

I am not saying the resent move lower will not leave a mark, I am just trying to stress that it is all part of the process. Human beings are not wired to be rationale investors, thus like any physical task you must practice training...

 

Sunday, February 11, 2018

In the 75 years from 1943-2017, the S&P 500 had 28 declines of at least 10% but less than 20% or once every 2.7 years. A correction is defined as a stock market decline of at least 10% but less than 20% The bottom line is this –...

 

Saturday, February 10, 2018

One of the questions most posed last week by clients was why did the market fall and who is to blame. As expected everyone is looking for definitive answers but as is always the case with the stock market, many factors were at play....

 

Friday, February 9, 2018

It’s All Relative After the nine year bull market we have seen since the end of the Global Financial Crisis, a point decline in absolute terms is equating to a much smaller percentage drop. For example, the Dow shed 1,175 points...

 

Thursday, February 8, 2018

While any correction is typically Short, Sharp & Scary, we need to realize this is part of the PROCESS and is NORMAL. As the chart below outlines, this correction is no different. This is the 22nd pullback greater than 5% since the...

 

Wednesday, February 7, 2018

…Not the placid markets we experiences for nearly two years without a 5% drop. That period was the anomaly. The research team at DFA and JP Morgan produce great work on Intra-Year Declines. In examining calendar year returns for...

 

Tuesday, February 6, 2018

Psychologist Daniel Kahneman “If owning stocks is a long-term project for you following their changes constantly is a very, very BAD IDEA. It’s the worst possible thing you can do, because people are so sensitive to...

 

Monday, February 5, 2018

The Philadelphia Eagles win the Super Bowl with a former back-up NFL QB as head coach (Pederson) and former back-up NFL QB as offensive coordinator (Reich) and back-up NFL QB (Foles) as the Super Bowl MVP! The Eagles are NFL champions...

 

Sunday, February 4, 2018

As I stated my case yesterday, if history is any indication let’s hope the Patriots lose tonight. As many of my readers know I often intertwine sports and performance into my writings. Just like the Investor Character Equation...

 

Saturday, February 3, 2018

Yes I have adopted the Eagles since my Baltimore Ravens missed the playoffs (again). How can I not with the euphoria here in south Jersey. But there is an ulterior motive: Stocks perform better in years when NFC teams wins the Super...

 

Friday, February 2, 2018

One of the biggest concerns investors have today is when will the markets drop and by how much. I tell them that the next bear market catalyst is predicated on the rate of change of US growth (GDP and Profits) and Inflation. However,...

 

Thursday, February 1, 2018

As you can see from the chart embedded below, the stock market has been overvalued for a long period of time. In this example, the red portion is when the CAPE Ratio trades BELOW its long-term average. So dating back to 1990, it has...

 

Wednesday, January 31, 2018

Yes the stock market can go down and on back-to-back days! Even this recent parabolic move higher needs to take a breather. Here are the Stats of the Day: First 1% drop in 112 days. This ties for the longest stretch since 1985. First...

 

Tuesday, January 30, 2018

In January alone, Bitcoin lost as much in market cap as the entire value of Ford (F). It is currently estimated that 4% of Bitcoin owners own 95% of all Bitcoin. So, even if estimates are true that 1 in 20 Americans have exposure to...

 

Monday, January 29, 2018

The amount of income leaving CT and NY is roughly double the amount of people leaving the state, according to AEI. For example, while net migration in 2016 was negative to the tune of -0.80% in CT, the % of AGI (adjusted gross income)...

 

Sunday, January 28, 2018

As you can see in the chart below, in the last 100 years the red highlights the amount of time the CAPE ratio (Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings ratio) is ABOVE current levels. Exactly – not often. That was during the Technology...

 

Sunday, October 1, 2017

In what turned out to be one of the most docile Septembers in history, October is typically maniacal.The 3 best gain days (by percentage) for the S&P 500 in the last 67+ years (i.e., dating back to January 1950) all occurred during...

 

Friday, September 29, 2017

To dovetail on yesterday's musing, here is a chart outlining pullbacks and frequencies: We did have a ~10% correction to start off 2016; however, we have not had a 5% correction since.It has been 41 weeks since the last time the S&P...

 

Thursday, September 28, 2017

Chart and Stat of the DayChart courtesy of Michael Batnick:We’ve NEVER had a full year with an S&P 500 max drawdown this small. Full Stop.However, the year is not yet over.As a reminder, since 1980, the average annual drawdown is...