Blog
Changes in tax law, estate planning strategies, investment and insurance products and general flucuations in the markets can all affect your investment strategy and retirement plan. Meyer Minutes is our weekly blog that will provide everything that you need to know to help keep you current and on track to make your your long-term financial plan a success.
"FIDUCIARY" IS NOW A MARKETING HOT BUTTON IN FINANCE
Anyone can call themselves a financial advisor these days, but who are fiduciaries and what makes an advisor a fiduciary 100% of the time?
Read MoreThat's A Wrap
After 3,210 blog posts this will be my final one. I am not leaving just reallocating resources and evolving our communications process. You can still connect with us on many social media platforms such as: Twitter LinkedIn YouTube...
Read MoreTracking Inflation
The price of lumber is +220% year-over-year. The price of ONE sheet of plywood is up to $50 from $15 year-over-year. As you can see in the Chart of the Day, producer prices are rising FAST: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...
Read MoreSellers Market
In residential real estate we have seen an rush to buy homes throughout the country especially in suburbs of larger cities. In the Chart of the Day, there are on average 4.1 offers on each home sold in January versus the average of 2.6...
Read MoreShow All
Investors Buy What They Wished They Owned
This is one of the unfortunate maxims in the investment landscape. Read another way: buyting what has already gone up! The drawback can be seen when looking at the largest companies. In the Stats of the Day from AMG, we look at...
Read MoreHappy Anniversary...Part II?
A year ago the VIX (volatility index for the S&P 500) closed at a record high: 82.69. Yesterday it moved down to 19.23, its lowest level since the pandemic began and back below its historical average (19.50). Stay Tuned, Disciplined &...
Read MoreHappy St. Patrick's Day
It is also the official start of stimulus payments. Yes some have started to receive on March 12 which was the first phase of payments and sent to those with direct deposit information on file with the IRS. Today is the official...
Read MoreHappy Anniversary?
It depends on how you look at it. One year ago the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell 12.9%! This was the 4th worst decline in history after WWI, 1929 and 1987. Fast forward to today: New All-Time Highs Currently Up 7 Days...
Read MoreHigher Interest Rates...III
To continue my theme of trying to discredit certain dogma’s let us continue down this path. We saw the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 both hit an all-time highs, while at the same time interest rates on the US 10-year also rose to...
Read MoreTracking the Bank of Japan (BoJ)
With its massive buying of equity assets drawing criticism for distorting markets, the BOJ will make its purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETF) similar to currency intervention: stepping in only when a shock event triggers market...
Read MoreTracking Inflation
US inflation rates are running ahead of other world economies. Watch what the Fed does to stoke then combat inflation not what they say. Remember, the “FOMC Meeting Minutes” are not actually minutes of what was discussed...
Read MorePandemic Stimulus Totals
According to JT Taylor, here are the latest totals on the stimulus front since the start of the pandemic: 6 Bills Passed $5.5 Trillion In Stimulus During World War II Inflation-Adjusted There Was ~$4 Trillion in Stimulus Infrastructure...
Read MoreThe American Rescue Plan
The details on the latest stimulus package: The American Rescue Plan is the Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus rescue package designed to facilitate the United States’ recovery from the devastating economic...
Read MoreTracking National Debt
Hint: after three Covid-inducted stimulus packages it continues to grow – by trillions! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember...
Read MoreHigher Interest Rates...Part II
To continue on my previous post, please do not let financial media give you a narrative without fact checking: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
Read MoreHigher Interest Rates...
…Is Not Always Bad For Stocks The narrative in the financial media lately is that since interest rates rise stocks will fall. As you can see in the Chart of the Day, when there is a 2 standard deviation move in the US 10-year...
Read MoreChart of the Day
While down ~50% (a topic for another blog), the US still holds a wide advantage over other major countries: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
Read MoreTracking Fed Bond Buying
As part of the Federal Reserve bond market intervention in 2020 is that it bought a lot of inflation-protection securities via TIPS. This raised its share of market holdings to a staggering rate from 8 to 20.4%. They may not believe...
Read MoreWhat's Another ~$1.9 Trillion
Over the weekend the House passed their version of another pandemic stimulus package called the American Rescue Plan. Expect renewed weakness in the US dollar. Here are some of the details: $1,400 checks per adult & child (phaseout at...
Read MoreToo Funny!
With the push for ESG vehicles and preferential treatment, this particular pick-up truck decided his color determined who gets the spot closest to the entrance: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation...
Read MoreWorld Stock Market Weightings
According to Bianco Research & Bloomberg, the U.S. stock market now accounts for roughly 41% of world’s stock market value. China is second. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R...
Read MoreVaccine Update
The world’s fight against coronavirus has hit a milestone: the number of people vaccinated now outnumbers the total confirmed cases, according the the Financial Times. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor &...
Read MoreESG & Board Updates
I thought this research note from Gitterman Asset Management on corporate board of director adoption of ESG proposals: While interest in sustainability and ESG is on the rise within the financial services and broader investor community...
Read MoreNot So High Yield
The average yield on U.S. junk bonds dropped below 4% for the first time ever, according to Bloomberg. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease...
Read MoreTracking Factors
Between GDP growth rising year-over-year and massive stimulus still in the system you get returns such as these – regardless of fundamentals: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S +...
Read MoreThought of the Day
Christopher Cole: In modern markets, the price of risk is set by liquidity/flows, NOT solvency/fundamentals. In theory, Fed supplies liquidity to support the Jenga tower of credit risk until either/or: 1) Stagflation/Corporate...
Read MoreESG Drawbacks
One of the unintended consequences of the big move into wind energy has been deforestation in Ecuador. Balsa wood is used in the turbine blades and the country provides 75% of the world’s supply but the scramble has led to...
Read MoreTracking High Yield
Well it is not really “high yield” at these record low yields: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past...
Read MoreThe Knowledge Economy
As you can see in the Chart of the Day, this is not a short-term trend. This is the “Knowledge Economy” at work: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT...
Read MoreTracking Rents
In January, rents fell -21.5% in San Francisco, -17.8% in San Jose & -15.5% in NYC; while less-populated cities like Riverside, Memphis & Phoenix saw rents jump. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character...
Read MoreTracking Earnings
While earnings “beats” for S&P 500 companies remains elevated the more important number is the year-over-year rate-of-change. So far, 189 S&P 500 companies have announced earnings and earnings growth is +3.91%. Stay Tuned,...
Read MoreTracking Factors
It is important to track the factors that are outperforming. According to Goldman Sachs, non-profitable tech stocks are up significantly over the last 3 months with a return of +60%. This is off the peak from the summer of 2020 but...
Read MoreInvestor Beware
Sell Stop Loss Edition Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results....
Read MoreFed vs. GDP
The Fed’s balance sheet is now nearly half of U.S. GDP. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be...
Read MoreTracking Credit Card Debt
Where do you fall versus the national average: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of...
Read MoreTracking Inflation
New Cycle Highs Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types...
Read MoreTracking Home Prices
ATH = All Time Highs Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different...
Read MoreTracking Short Squeezes – II
Here is a note from Goldman Sachs on the topic of the day in the markets: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past...
Read MoreTracking Short Squeezes
According to Bloomberg, the most-shorted stocks (a bet an investor makes if they believe a stock will fall in value) have surged. That group is now up +278% from March 2020 lows. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor &...
Read MoreTracking Poverty - II
Some good news on this front. The lowest fifth of individuals (by income bracket) benefited substantially from government aid in 2020 relative to other quintiles: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character...
Read MoreTracking Poverty
As per the US Census Bureau, the US poverty rate increased by 2.4% in the latter half of 2020, nearly double largest annual increase since 1960s. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R...
Read MoreInvestor Beware
As they say things are rarely FREE. The Robinhood trading app that allows you to place transactions on your phone for no costs is making money other ways: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE)...
Read MoreTracking Inflation
One of the first areas that inflation rears itself is in input costs. As you can see from the IMF chart below this trend higher has already started. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S +...
Read MorePresident Biden's First 100 Days
CNN reports there will be a total of 17 executive actions, at least 15 of those will be executive orders targeting a range of issues, while Biden pushes his immigration package and a raft of immigration legislation. Of these 17 actions...
Read MoreTracking Country Inflation
As the US is on the verge of year-over-year CPI eclipsing 3% in the second quarter of 2021, that pales in comparison to the below countries: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
Read MoreMartin Luther King Jr.
This is one of my favorite quotes and dovetails beautifully into The Investor & Character Equation: “The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of...
Read MoreTracking The Wealth Gap
It is not good. Here is an article from Bloomberg on this topic and below are two unsettling quotes and a chart depicting this widening gap. “The Rich Are Minting Money in the Pandemic Like Never Before” “There Has...
Read MoreStat of the Day
According to recent filings, the average hold time for a Bitcoin position on the Coinbase custodian platform is 77 days. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
Read MoreTracking Savings
According to a recent Bank of America report, 65% of low-income households (income <$50k) have <$1,000 in savings. While 69% of high-income (income>$125k) reported savings >$5,000…similar trends on assets including...
Read MoreTracking Employment
As you can see in the Chart of the Day, the jobs recovery has hurt low wage employees the most. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease...
Read MoreTracking Inflation
When the Federal Reserve says there is little to no inflation they may be looking in the rear-view mirror. Just a sample from December: Fuel oil +10% Gasoline +8% Clothing +1.4% Motor vehicle insurance +1.4% New vehicles +0.4% Stay...
Read MoreTracking Penny Stocks
According to Bloomberg, companies with the lowest share prices are outperforming so far this year; particularly, those trading for < $1/share. And just SIX companies made up nearly 1/5 of the overall volume this Monday. Stay Tuned,...
Read MoreTracking Zombie Companies
These companies earn this nickname for their tendency to just get by, unable to earn enough to dig out from under their obligations. But thanks to easy monetary policy, they survive. According to Arbor, these firms have racked up...
Read MoreBreaking Down Returns
The S&P 500 would be DOWN 3.2%, instead of UP 45.1%, had it not been for a 48.3% rise in the P/E ratio in 2019 and 2020. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
Read MoreTracking Jobs
We are still missing 9.8 million jobs relative to pre-pandemic as of Friday’s report from the BLS: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
Read MoreTracking Small vs. Large
The smallest stocks in the Russell indices have lagged the largest stocks over past 15 years. However, within S&P 500, smallest 10% have outperformed largest 10% by annualized 1.2%. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor...
Read MoreTracking Traffic
In & Around New York City Vehicle traffic is coming back but trains and busses still lag. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that...
Read MoreNew Year Clean Up
Often to my wife’s dissatisfaction this time of year is a great time to purge and donate/recycle/shred/trash all of those items that keep piling up. I came across this via a LinkedIn post by Joe Hays. Use these guidelines as you...
Read MoreStory of the Day
This is from one of my must read authors Morgan Housel. It is an essay on money lessons from Bill Gates. In short, SAVE like a PESSIMIST and INVEST like an OPTIMIST. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character...
Read MoreTracking Growth vs. Value
In the Chart of the Day from J.P. Morgan it shows that value underperformed growth by the most on record in 2020. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
Read More21 Resolutions for '21
Here is a great list from Daniel Crosby: Spend less than you make, period Work with an advisor to get a formal financial plan Own the world: diversify within and between asset classes Splurge, but only infrequently to maximize...
Read MoreTravel Tracker
Despite there being far fewer travelers than last year, the days leading up to Christmas 2020 still saw upwards of 1 million passengers flying daily in the US. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation...
Read MoreTracking The Big 5
In the Chart of the Day provided by Liz Ann Sonders, the relationship between the Big 5 and the other 495 over various time periods associated with the pandemic and market cycle are highlighted. Although not an extreme, since September...
Read MoreBig vs. Small Business
Big Businesses Amazon: profit up 100% Walmart: profit up 80% Target: profit up 80% Lowe’s: profit up 74% Microsoft, Facebook, Apple & Google: Stock at or near Record Highs Small Businesses 21% Closed Revenue DOWN 30% Stay Tuned,...
Read MoreTracking Jobs
A total of more than 16 million workers will have lost CARES Act benefits by the end of the year. This is in addition to the 12 million workers who will see their CARES Act benefits expire on December 26. Therefore, it should come as...
Read MoreTracking Vaccine Effectiveness
Very high efficacy rates for vaccines are not uncommon: Pfizer = Preliminary Reported of 90% Moderna = Preliminary Reported 94.5%. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT...
Read MoreTracking The Big 5
As you can see in the Chart of the Day, with the rally in stocks last week the 5 largest stocks by market capitalization reached an all-time high as a percentage of the S&P 500 at 23%. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...
Read MoreTracking Bitcoin Volaility
According to Peter Brandt, during the 2015-2017 bull market in Bitcoin, there were 9 significant corrections with the following averages: 37% decline from high to low 14 weeks from one All-Time High to the next All-Time High. Since the...
Read MoreTracking Multiple Expansion
In the Chart of the Day, you can see how the S&P 500 has gotten much more expensive this year as measured by the P/E ratio. This is even after the crash we experienced in February/March. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...
Read MoreStat of the Day
In less than a year, a vaccine has been discovered. The previous record for the fastest time to develop a vaccine occurred during the late 1960s when it took four years to develop a vaccine for the mumps. ~Goldman Sachs Stay Tuned,...
Read MoreVeterans Day
“A veteran is someone who, at one point in their life wrote a blank check made payable to ‘The United States of America,’ for an amount up to and including their life.” ~Unknown We are the land of the free,...
Read MoreTracking S&P 500 Returns
I have blogged about this before but wanted to highlight again, especially after the price action post the Pfizer news on a potential vaccine. The cumulative After-Hours return since the March 23 bottom just hit +50%. Meanwhile the day...
Read MoreTracking Negative Yields
Although after the rally in the stock market and the rise in yields globally, this may slip back to below $16 Trillion! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
Read MoreTracking Fund Flows
In the past 10 years, passive equity funds have enjoyed inflows of more than $2 trillion, even as traditional, active ones have suffered outflows of over $1.5 trillion, per The Financial Times. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM}...
Read MoreThe Masters & Investing
In the Chart of the Day, I wanted to share this gem as we are on the verge of The Masters from Augusta National Golf Club. The list of invitees to this years tournament if very similar to the breakdown of the MSCI ACWI Index. Stay...
Read MoreCartoon of the Day
From Election Day via Hedgeye cartoonist Bob Rich. Regardless who is President the stock market wants Fed Chairman Powell to continue to provide stimulus, even though markets are near all-time highs! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient!...
Read MoreElection Update
I found this unbiased and data-driven chart that I thought I would share with everyone this morning: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease...
Read MoreThe Current Electoral Map
As drawn by a toddler. I know this is a very serious matter, but I had to bring some levity to the conversation. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
Read MoreSustainability Stories
I know today is Election Day but we won’t know much until (hopefully) this evening but most likely later this week. This is a great look at how a couple from Columbia saw an opportunity and has capitalized on pineapple waste and...
Read MoreThe Electoral Process
On the eve of the election, I wanted to provide to you a timeline of events from BlackRock: After election day, states have until December 8 to count ballots, conduct recounts and settle any disputes in accordance with the “safe...
Read MoreTracking Global Stock Weightings
Since 1899…some things have changed/evolved over time: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be...
Read MoreWhen To Start Counting
While there is some nuance to this such as early ‘in-person’ voting and ‘mail-in’ voting it give you a general idea why we may need a standardized process going forward. Arizona has been voting by mail since...
Read MoreNo Surprise Here
Between the pandemic, taking classes remotely, taking gap years or simply not being able to find a job, young adults are doing the wise thing and moving back home to re-set and save money. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...
Read MoreTracking Small Cap...
…Sector Breakdowns versus the S&P 500: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of...
Read MoreTracking Energy
Blue Wave / Green Deal or not the energy sectors weight in the S&P 500 has dropped to under 2% from 6% in 1990. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
Read MoreTracking S&P 500 Returns
It looks like Buy at the Close and Sell at the Open wins! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be...
Read MoreTracking FAAMG - Again
The market capitalizations of the FAAMG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft & Google) now exceeds that of the 7 largest European countries COMBINED: U.K., Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Russia, and Poland Stay Tuned, Disciplined...
Read MoreTracking Debt & Projections
“Regardless of the election’s outcome, I believe we are looking at the prospect of rising debt levels as far as the eye can see.” ~Jurrien Timmer Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character...
Read MoreTracking The Swiss National Bank
While the US Federal Reserve does not buy stocks (yet – just wait for the next crash), the Swiss National Bank does. Here is a look at their top portfolio holdings: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor &...
Read MoreTracking Manhattan Retail Rents
Hint: Not good! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types...
Read MoreWhen You Chase Yields...
…This Can Happen Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results....
Read MoreTracking Delinquencies
Late-stage mortgage delinquencies rose to 1.4 percent among borrowers in July, the highest level since 1999, according to a new report from CoreLogic. The July numbers represent the latest available data and stand in contrast to...
Read MoreTracking Poverty
8 million Americans slipped into poverty amid coronavirus pandemic, new study says. Researchers looked at the devastating financial effect the pandemic has had on Americans, with Blacks, Latinos and children faring the worst. Although...
Read MoreTracking Corporate Bonds
Vanguard looked at about 2,700 companies, grouped them into ratings buckets, and then compared their earnings in the first half of this year with earnings in the first half of 2019. “The results generally suggest that the higher...
Read MoreTracking Greece Bonds
Greece is issuing 10 year government bonds with a yield of less than 1%! This is down from 11% over winter of 2015/6. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
Read MoreTracking Economic Policies of the Candidates
A good reminder as we approach election day: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of...
Read MoreTracking The Whale
In the investment circles the whale is the Bank of Japan (BOJ). The BOJ is the “whale in the pond” of Japanese financial markets, as they own huge swaths of markets: ~70% of ETFs ~40% of Government Bonds ~20% of Commercial...
Read MoreTracking Negative Interest Rates
This is from Grant’s Interest Rate Observer: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative...
Read MoreTracking Mortgage Payments
In the US, as of August, total homeowners in active forbearance were 7.4% of all active mortgages: GSE: 5.4% FHA/VA: 11.5% Private Label: 7.9% Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
Read MoreTracking Central Banks
While the US Central Bank has ballooned their balance sheet to 36% of GDP to north of $7 trillion. Norway has the world beat in terms of size of central bank balance sheet relative to GDP at 422%. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient!...
Read MoreTracking Small Businesses
More than half of small businesses never came back after the lockdowns compared to last year. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember...
Read MoreTracking Insider Selling
Insider Selling Reached All-Time Highs in August In August, daily filings for company insider stock purchases reached an all-time high of 152 purchases per day. The weekly numbers, following a few slow weeks in July, skyrocketed in...
Read MoreTracking Inequality - IV
The 50 richest Americans are worth as much as the poorest 165 million, says new data from the Federal Reserve. Yet they members of the board continue to state their actions to pump stimulus into the markets doesn’t create...
Read MoreTracking Inequality - III
Feeding America, an organization that runs 200 food banks, says 17 million more people lack consistent access to enough food compared to last year, a leap of nearly 50%. Yet according to new reports, the world wastes twice as much more...
Read MoreTracking Inequality - II
As you can see in my Chart of the Day, those in the lowest earning rung have still not fully recovered. And this is with massive monetary stimulus via the Fed and monetary stimulus from Congress. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient!...
Read MoreTracking Inequality
The Federal Reserve continues to insist their policies absolutely do not add to inequality. The Top 1% own 52.4% of corporate equities and mutual funds. The bottom 50% own just 1.9%. And they are trying to reflate asset prices, not...
Read MoreTracking Biden's Plan
Former Vice President Biden’s plan to raise corporate taxes would reduce expected S&P 500 corporate earnings by 9.2%, according to Bank of America Global Research estimates. It would result in much bigger profit drops for big...
Read MoreTracking Credit
As the old saying goes ‘credit leads stocks’ so something has to give. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past...
Read MoreTracking Data
An Internet Minute: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different...
Read MoreWas PPP Effective?
One in ten firms surveyed by LendingTree received what they needed. Maybe the late former President Reagan was right when he said, ” The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: I’m from the government, and...
Read MoreTracking NYC Commuting Trends
As you can see in my Charts of the Day, subway ridership is still down dramatically year-0ver-year, while Bridge & Tunnel Crossings have almost completely rebounded. This is due to single driver volume heading into the city. Stay Tuned...
Read MoreUS Treasury 10-Year Yields
The trend is not the savers friend! US 10-Year Treasury Yields: September 1980: 11.6% September 1985: 10.4% September 1990: 8.9% September 1995: 6.2% September 2000: 5.9% September 2005: 4.3% September 2010: 2.8% September 2015: 2.2%...
Read MoreVaccine Update
In the Chart of the Day, Alliance Bernstein outlines the timetable for vaccines to hit the market. It is a race, but will it beat the election? Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R =...
Read MoreElection Year Charts - XIII
The size of the tax increase proposed by Joe Biden as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) would be one of the largest ever and rival President Lyndon B. Johnson’s (LBJ) tax increases in the late 1960s. Let’s...
Read MoreElection Year Chart - VII
How the US dollar does ahead of the election has been a great indicator of which party might win in November. If the dollar is weak three months before the election, this bodes well for the incumbent party, while the incumbent party...
Read MoreElection Year Charts - XI
S&P 500 Index earnings are expected to jump close to 23% in 2021 according to FactSet, as the global economy recovers. Presidential nominee Joe Biden has made it very clear he will likely hike taxes, which could potentially cut 10% off...
Read MoreElection Year Charts - X
Gallup poll approval ratings have done a nice job of predicting how many votes a president up for re-election might get. With a 42% Gallup approval rating currently, this comes out to 49% of the total votes for President Trump, which...
Read MoreElection Year Charts - IX
If real per capita disposable income is higher, the incumbent president usually wins. Conversely, if wages are weak, that bodes well for someone new in the White House. Given real per capita disposable income is up more than 7% this...
Read MoreElection Timetable
8 Days to the First Presidential Debate 42 Days to Election Day And most importantly: 101 Days Until 2020 Is Over Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
Read MoreElection Year Charts - VIII
Here is what the S&P 500 historically has done during re-election years. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance...
Read MoreElection Year Charts - VII
If President Donald Trump is going to win, right about now is when the S&P 500 Index should start to outperform. Of course, if it weakens, it could mean we will be looking at a President Joe Biden soon. Stay Tuned, Disciplined &...
Read MoreElection Year Charts - VI
How stocks perform three months before the election has a stellar track record of predicting who will win in November. If stocks are higher, the incumbent party tends to win, while if stocks are lower, the incumbent party tends to lose...
Read MoreElection Year Charts - V
Stocks historically have done much better when there isn’t a lame duck president. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that...
Read MoreElection Year Charts - IV
Looking at the four-year presidential cycle shows that stocks haven’t been down during a year the president was up for a re-election since FDR in the 1940s, another bullish tailwind for 2020. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient!...
Read MoreElection Year Charts - III
The best scenario under a Republican president is a split Congress, a potential positive for 2020 that has played out after the massive reversal in the stock market since March. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor &...
Read MoreElection Year Charts - II
A split Congress historically has been one of the best scenarios for investors. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past...
Read MoreElection Year Charts - I
It is that time of year and that time of the election cycle that means plenty of client questions on the election. Well for the next few days I will be posting Charts of the Day on this very topic. Here’s how the S&P 500 Index...
Read MoreMurder Hornets or 490 Companies?
In this busy Chart of the Day, you can see that just 10 stocks accounted for half of the return of the S&P 500 in the month of August. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
Read MorePatriot Day
“September 11 impressed upon us that life is a precious gift… And I think we all have a duty to devote at least a small portion of our daily lives to ensuring that neither America nor the world ever forgets September 11...
Read MoreThought of the Day
On The Elections Jonathan Lemco, Ph.D., Vanguard Investment Strategy Group “It’s important that investors not lose sight of their own goals and their own long-term strategies. Financial markets are incredibly complex...
Read MoreTracking Mortgage Activity
In my Chart of the Day, the mortgage market recorded its best quarter in years this past spring, reflecting how housing market has boomed in 2020 even as much of rest of economy stumbled. With the Federal Reserve buying more than $1...
Read MoreChart of the Day
This is an amazing and completely coincidental chart of the Shanghai Composite Index overlaid on a map of Virginia! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
Read MoreTracking Insider Selling
While I do not believe in one factor models, it is hard to ignore when insiders of US listed companies are dumping stock. Insiders unloaded $6.7 billion worth of their own company stock during market’s rally to new highs in...
Read MoreThought of the Day
Citi’s Matt King: “Stimulus is going into asset price inflation, not CPI. And the build-up of ever larger asset price bubbles itself pins down the rates market. This combination creates a dangerous environment where...
Read MoreWhere Are They Going?
After my entry on Leaving New Jersey (NY, CT & IL as well), I wanted to follow-up with where folks are moving to: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
Read MoreTracking 18-29 Year Old's
Due to the COVID-19 this will not be a surprise: 52% of 18-29 year old’s live with their parent(s). The highest value ever recorded. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
Read MoreTwo COVID Economies
Second homes, luxury cars, boats and pools are selling fast. Meanwhile, the percent of U.S. households that didn’t have enough to eat in the previous seven days is more than double what it was in 2018. Ben Eisen outlines in his...
Read MoreLeaving New Jersey - Faster
Bloomberg: Based on recent data from United Van Lines, 7 out of every 10 moves in New Jersey are households LEAVING the state – accelerating a distinct trend over the past five years [also included in that trend are New York and...
Read MoreTracking NYC EZ Pass Usage
As you can see in the Chart of the Day more people are coming back into New York City. However, it is still down nearly 25% year-over-year. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
Read MoreTracking US Stock Volatility
As you can see in the Chart of the Day below, with the S&P 500 hitting all-time highs, the volatility of the S&P 500 is also nearing all-time highs. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S +...
Read MoreTracking US Stock Valuations
To dovetail on my previous entry on Forward P/E ratios of US equity markets, the appended Chart of the Day looks back even further. The trailing PE of US stocks has only been higher on two occasions: December 1921 June 1999 Stay Tuned,...
Read MoreChart of the Day
Market Capitalization comparison: 2005 vs. 2020 Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of...
Read MoreCartoon of the Day
Yesterday, the BEA revised 2nd quarter GDP to -31.7% from the original estimate of 32.9%. This is the worst number on record. However, on the heels of the “better than expected’ revisions to 2nd quarter GDP, Hedgeye’s...
Read MoreTracking Lumber Prices
Can you say overbought! No wonder builders are having a difficult time finding supplies. Homebuilders are on a tear as home prices outside of urban areas drive higher. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character...
Read MoreTracking the ECB
The European Central Bank (ECB) balance sheet hit fresh ALL TIME HIGHS (ATH) at $6.024 Billion as Chairwomen Lagarde keeps the printing press rumbling. Total assets rose by €19.4 Billion on Quantitative Easing (QE) efforts, while...
Read MoreApple Facts of the Day
It took Apple 38 years to get to their first trillion in market capitalization. From October 19th to August 20th it took them 0.8 years to go from $1 trillion to $2 trillion in market cap. Data from the last four years: Price = +350%...
Read More7 vs. 2000
Fact of the Day Mega-cap technology stocks continue to push major US stock markets higher. Last week, the collective market capitalization of Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Google owner Alphabet (GOOGL), and Facebook...
Read MoreTracking the Disconnect - II
The folks at Visual Capitalist to a great job with charts! Here is a great visual representation of the disconnect between the stock market and consumers. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE)...
Read MoreTracking the Disconnect
Wall Street via the S&P 500 vs. Main Street via Index of Consumer Sentiment As you can see from the Chart of the Day, the actions of the Federal Reserve have absolutely helped Wall Street and stock owners recovery. But that is a small...
Read MoreTracking Divergences
Basket of 5 largest stocks in S&P 500 made new high yesterday; looking at returns since beginning of 2018, just those mega-cap names are +100%, while broader market is +25.6%, according to Liz Ann Sonders and Bloomberg. Stay Tuned,...
Read MoreTracking Home Inventory
In this ‘Great Experiment’ of Work From Home (WFH) certain cities are feeling the pinch from homeowners to begin the remote work reshuffle. I am looking at you San Fran! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor...
Read MoreTracking US Stock Valuations - II
Price-to-Sales Ratios: Tesla: 13x Microsoft: 11x Facebook: 10x Netflix: 9.6x Twitter: 8.9x Apple: 7.4x Google: 6.6x Amazon: 5.0x GM: 0.3x Ford: 0.2x Data via @ycharts Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character...
Read MoreTracking US Stock Valuations
The S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio now sits at highest since mid-2000. While you can’t fake price you can overestimate future earnings. Source: Liz Ann Sonders Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character...
Read MoreRecord Low High Yield
Yes is sounds like an oxymoron but it happened last week. Last week Ball Corp. (BLL) priced $1.3 Billion of 10-Year Notes at a RECORD low yield of 2.875% – the lowest-ever for a US junk bond with a maturity of five years or...
Read MoreCounter Trend Rally
Last week was a prime example of this concept: High Beta stocks bounced +3.5% last week to down -23.2% YTD High Short Interest stocks bounced +2.6% last week to down -12.4% YTD Low Market Cap stocks bounced +2.5% last week to down -22...
Read MoreTracking Commodities
Below in the Chart of the Day is the price of Commodities versus the Dow Jones Industrial Average and commodities are as cheap as they have every been. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) |...
Read MoreValue vs. Growth
Look Away! My Chart of the Day looks at what is another terrible year for value stocks. As with most trends in finance, mean reversion will have its way – I just don’t know when! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...
Read MoreTracking Divergences...
…Between US Stocks and International Stocks – II Not only have US stocks outperformed on a relative basis, but from a valuation perspective International stocks are trading near historic discounts versus US stocks. Stay...
Read MoreTracking Divergences
…Between US Stocks and International Stocks As you can see in the Chart of the Day, International equities have underperformed their US counterparts for nearly a decade. This relative underperformance is now at extreme levels....
Read MoreTracking the US Dollar
As you can see in the Chart of the Day, coming into 2020 the US Dollar looked to be historically overvalued based on Purchasing Power Parity of a basket of foreign currencies. Thanks to the Federal Reserve’s myriad stimulus...
Read MoreTracking FAAMG Earnings
In the Stat of the Day, Goldman Sachs highlights the “haves” and “have nots” in the market today: “In aggregate, FAAMG EPS grew by 2% year/year in 2Q compared with an aggregate decline of -38% for the...
Read MoreTracking Apple
In the Chart of the Day, Apple’s market cap is 89% of the market cap of the Russell 2000 (small cap stock index): Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
Read MoreAbout Time SEC
The SEC is launching an investigation surrounding trading of Eastman Kodak Co’s (KODK) shares before and after it was announced that the government is loaning the company $765 million. The money will help Kodak manufacture drugs...
Read MoreTracking Global Restaurants
Restaurant reservations have been acting as a daily real-time gauge of the monthly consumer confidence readings. Stronger rebound in Europe vs North America. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation...
Read MoreNo Surprise Here
At the end of last week, Fitch Ratings revised the U.S. Outlook to Negative to reflect the ongoing deterioration in the U.S. public finances and the absence of a credible fiscal consolidation plan. This is the latest in a long line of...
Read MoreTracking ADP Jobs Data
Not the ‘V-Shaped’ recovery seen in the Largest 5 companies in the S&P 500. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that...
Read MoreTracking Concentration
The Top 5 vs. The Deadweight 495 Since 2010 Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of...
Read MoreTracking Residential Housing
No “V-shaped” recovery was even necessary! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be...
Read MoreTracking The Disconnect
I have mentioned in several posts the outperformance of a handful of megacap stocks. I also continue to read and hear of the growing disconnect between these few stocks and just about everything else. These sectors offer a glimpse into...
Read MoreHeard This Before
According to SoFi, stock market activity this year reveals that a company’s name may have a significant impact on its stock price. Companies with the words “technology” or “technologies” in their names...
Read MoreKeep Calm & Diversify
In my Chart of the Day, AMG provides an great visual of how diversified portfolios behave during bear markets. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
Read MoreLending Standards
Tightening lending standards at the exact time many small businesses and consumers need them. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember...
Read MoreTracking US Restaurants
Recovering. Not Recovered. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results....
Read MoreTracking US Air Travel
Recovering. Not Recovered. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results....
Read MoreTracking Concentration
Again! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of...
Read MoreTracking Business Status
To dovetail on my entry yesterday, this Washington Post article expands to look at a wider range of industries. The picture is still not good. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
Read MoreTracking Restaurants
According to Yelp, more than half of restaurants temporarily closed are now permanently shuttered. As you can see from this chart from Johns Hopkins, as confirmed COVID cases grow, restaurant revenues decline: Stay Tuned, Disciplined &...
Read MoreTweet of the Year
…If you are parents of kids “going” back to school in the fall: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past...
Read MoreTracking Concentration
If you EXCLUDE the Top 10 Stocks out of 500, the S&P 500 would be -7%: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance...
Read MoreImage of the Year
We finally have clarification as to why 2020 is turning out the way it is: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past...
Read MoreTracking COVID
This is not a political punch of any sort. As a matter of fact, the best investors I know are apolitical. This is data from Johns Hopkins and the COVID Tracking Project put together by Morgan Stanley. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient!...
Read MoreTracking Credit Outlooks
As Lisa Abramowicz points out: “Moody’s “currently has no positive industry outlooks, the first time that has happened, and the outlook for North American business conditions remains broadly negative.”...
Read MoreTracking Inflation
Well in this case it is actually stagflation. This is when economic growth is SLOWING and inflation is RISING. U.S. Consumer Prices Climb by Most Since 2012 on Higher Gasoline Here is just a sample of items we NEED: Medical Care...
Read MoreTracking Restaurants
Whether they are local business or publicly traded entities they are facing the same challenges, especially as COVID cases hit their highest reported daily levels of ~71,000 in the US. On top of the demand problem is the debt problem....
Read MoreTracking Re-Openings
The trend continues with the download of video conferencing and fitness apps, as well as buying groceries and good on-line! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT...
Read MoreTracking Valuations
Needless to say with this earnings season set to be one of the worst in history, stock market valuations look…extended! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT...
Read MoreA Tech Bubble?
While Technology stocks have outperformed year-to-date and some stocks have exploded to the upside, investors are asking about a potential bubble. However, in looking at the Chart of the Day, Morgan Stanley notes the increase in tech...
Read MoreTracking NY State Tax Revenue
Hint: As expected – terrible! New York Statewide Local Sales Tax Collections – by Month as measured by year-over-year changes: March: -3%, April: -24%, May: -32% … Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...
Read MoreTracking Housing Payments
As you can see in the Chart of the Day, the share of nonpayments/partial payments (32%) for housing (rent & mortgage payments) continues to grow each month. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation...
Read MoreTracking Credit Card Debt
This is actually good news for consumers and bad news for credit card companies. I guess this is what happens during a ‘shelter-in-place’ order! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation...
Read MoreTracking Retail Bankruptcies
With the announcement from Lucky Brands earlier this week, we are at 26 retail bankruptcies year-to-date. This surpasses last year’s record count. And still six months of the year left to go. SOURCE: Brian McGough Stay Tuned,...
Read MoreTracking Jobs
Permanent job losses are now rising at a pace consistent with the fastest pace seen during the Great Financial Crisis. Inclusive of June’s 4.8 million in job gains we are only 34% towards recovering the 22.1 million jobs lost....
Read MoreSand Castle of the Day
Texas Sand Castle Contest Winner – 2019. As with most things in the Upside Down World the contest was cancelled this year. But still an apt image. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) |...
Read MoreTracking Chinese IPO's
One of the topics not discussed as much as it should be is the rising tension between the US and China and the real possibility of new cold war: The CCP’s insertion into Hong Kong independency and upcoming election; potential...
Read MoreTracking Covenant-Lite Loans
First, what is a Cov-Lite Loan? According to Investopedia, a covenant-lite loan is a type of financing that is issued with fewer restrictions on the borrower and fewer protections for the lender. By contrast, traditional loans...
Read MoreTracking Global Debt Levels
As you can see in the Chart of the Day, they continue to hit All-Time High’s in both absolute terms and relative to GDP. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT...
Read MoreRetail Trading Army
There is speculation about small, retail traders moving the market. While that is only part of the story, they have dramatically increased their activity so far this year: 2020 Q2 = 7,148,000 daily average revenue trades. 2020 Q1 = 5...
Read MoreOpportunity Cost
It happens to the best of us! In 1966, Warren Buffett bought 5% of Disney for $4 million. That position is worth $12 billion today A 3,000-bagger! Unfortunately, Warren sold that position for $6 million in 1967. Even the greatest...
Read MoreTrading Checklist
For all of you stock traders reading, here is a fantastic collection on checklists from various managers assembled by Jonathan Tepper. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
Read MoreThe Biggest Bluff
I am going to start to take this opportunity to share with my readers key passages from various books and white papers that come across my desk. Today’s entry is from the book The Biggest Bluff by Maria Konnikova: After spending...
Read MoreThe Long Spaghetti Trade
Six months ago = $1.29 Today = $2.79 Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future...
Read MoreEducation Matters
Yes there is a $1.7 Trillion outstanding in student loans; however, as you can see in the Chart of the Day, education does still matter. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
Read MoreTweet of the Day
@EpsilonTheory | Ben Hunt The “us” that COVID-19 is killing and the “us” that the Federal Reserve is keeping afloat are two completely different things. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor &...
Read MoreTracking Travel
As you can see in the Chart of the Day, there has been a rebound in air travel through TSA gates, but not really a V-shaped recovery. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
Read MoreTracking Bankruptcy
As you can see from the Chart of the Day, US weekly filings of bankruptcies of mid-to-large companies is at the highest rate since the Global Financial Crisis. This chart does not even pick-up all of the small businesses that have...
Read MoreEverybody FANG Plus Tonight
The FANG+ Index is back at a peak: Here is a breakdown of the FANG+ Index: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past...
Read MoreFAAANM Update - II
Chart of the Day – Valuations Well this chart excludes Netflix: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance...
Read MoreFAAANM Update - I
Chart of the Day Returns of FAAANM: Facebook Alphabet Amazon Apple Netflix Microsoft Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past...
Read MoreTracking Reopening
Here is an updated chart from Goldman Sachs: Back-to-Business vs. Stay-at-Home Percentage Change Year-over-Year for Week Ending June 17th: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
Read MoreSelling Out
According to a recent report 31% of investors at Fidelity between the ages of 65-69 sold all of their stocks between February and May. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
Read MoreThis Is Crazy - VI
In the Headlines/Chart of the Day, I still can’t fathom who would put their own money into buying stocks of bankrupt companies when historically, the recovery rates are near zero! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...
Read MoreThis Is Crazy - V
Thought of the Day “There is scarcely an instance of a man who has made a fortune by speculation and kept it.” ~Andrew Carnegie Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
Read MoreThis Is Crazy - IV
In the Chart of the Day, I continue with the retail trading and speculation that has taken the place of sports betting during this market rally. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R =...
Read MoreThis Is Crazy - III
Bankrupt Hertz Wants to Sell Up to $1 Billion in New Shares Bankrupt Hertz is now trying to put in place a $1 billion at-the-market equity offering to sell its WORTHLESS stock to investors bagholders to enhance recovery for lenders....
Read MoreThis Is Crazy - II
From a recent Wall Street Journal article: Dave Portnoy, founder of Barstool Sports, has turned to day trading. “Stocks only go up, this is the easiest game I’ve been part of!” he said in a video on June 4th, with...
Read MoreThis Is Crazy
Should we tell these retail traders that when FAANG is a acronym of several leading technology stocks not Fangdd Network Group (DUO) a Chinese real estate firm that was up 389% yesterday. Whoever bought the stock at that price is now...
Read MoreSomething Is Wrong With This
At the end of trading yesterday there were 141,973 accounts on the Robinhood stock trading app holding Hertz (HTZ) that has filed for bankruptcy protection. Yet the stock is up over 650% since that announcement. The Robinhood User...
Read MoreGood Job Britain
In the Chart of the Day, Britain has gone a record two months without burning coal, the longest the dirtiest fossil fuel hasn’t been used for power since the start of the Industrial Revolution. For those history buffs, I am sure...
Read MoreTracking State Fiscal Health
A report from researchers at Arizona State and Old Dominion universities found that tax collections will fall by more than 30% in at least 10 American states due to Covid-19. On average, states will suffer a 20% decline in tax revenue....
Read MoreHow Robinhood Makes Money
The Robinhood app has allowed investors traders to buy and sell stocks and options for no commission off of their easy-to-use client application. Well you have to make money somehow. Robinhood sells their order flow to outside services...
Read MoreTracking Small Cap Stock Profitability
Not quite a record number of profit-less small cap companies but still a discouraging data point. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease...
Read MoreTracking Global Valuations
Hint: The US is the MOST Expensive Stock Market in the World Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be...
Read MoreTracking Small Cap Valuation
Hint: Most Expensive Ever Although this is based on forward estimates which can be unpredictable, especially this year! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
Read MoreTracking FAAAM
A main theme this year is growing divergences: whether between high and low-income families or stronger and weaker companies. In stocks, this translates as a 16% gain for Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft versus a 12%...
Read MoreTracking June Historical Returns
While history doesn’t repeat it rhymes. However, this is 2020 so who knows! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past...
Read MoreTracking Price Targets
% of Stocks Trading > Average Analyst Price Target via Strategas 2020: 61% 2019: 26% 2018: 19% 2017: 29% 2016: 28% 2015: 25% 2014: 35% 2013: 39% 2012: 18% 2011: 21% 2010: 39% 2009: 46% 2008: 22% 2007: 30% 2006: 32% 2005: 30% 2004:...
Read MoreFact of the Day
During the 1987 “Portfolio Insurance” Crash: “S&P futures lost 28% on 19-Oct-1987 [Friday close of 281.50 to Monday’s close of 203]. That day, 2210 trades were reported to the tape – today, that number...
Read MoreTracking Corporate Debt Markets
Hint: Liquidity Can’t Overcome Insolvency The S&P downgrade/upgrade ratio on levered loans hit 43.2! That’s not a percentage. That’s 43.2 downgrades for 1 upgrade. The peak during eh Global Financial Crisis of 2008...
Read MoreTweet of the Day
“We’re only down 15% from the all-time high of February 19, and it seems to me that the world is more than 15% screwed up.” ~Howard Marks Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation...
Read MoreTracking the Bank of Japan
According to the latest research from Deutsche Bank, the Bank of Japan owns almost 80% of all ETFs domiciled in Japan. Is the US Federal Reserve heading in this direction? Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor &...
Read MoreTracking China
Now this is on the heels of China removing their guidance for GDP – even though much of the world knows they make up the numbers. The below heatmap of the real-time Chinese economy actually shows some green shoots. However, we...
Read MoreTracking FAAANM
As you can see stock market leadership and performance has been been focused on six stocks over the last five years: Facebook Apple Alphabet Amazon Netflix Microsoft Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character...
Read MoreThe Federal Reserve Can't...
…Do the following: Provide solvency for consumers and businesses Provide demand for goods and services Print jobs Print cash flows Yes they can provide liquidity and massive amounts, but there is a limit to what they can do. And...
Read MoreTracking The Fed's Balance Sheet
Unprecedented Policy Support Over the past two months, the Federal Reserve’s metamorphosis from the traditional and passive ‘lender of last resort to today’s central planning leviathan has been on full display. Stay...
Read MoreSustainability Stories
Yesterday, scientists published a study showing that daily global greenhouse gas emissions dropped by 17% between January and April. The sharp decrease was linked to the pandemic’s stay-at-home orders, which have forced millions...
Read MoreTracking Earnings Estimates - II
“All but one of the seven postwar recessionary bear markets have seen double-digit declines in S&P 500 Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) EPS from their respective cycle peaks to their respective bear market trough dates.”...
Read MoreTracking Earnings Estimates
Hint: Cliff => Mountain First quarter earnings were just reported and it showed a loss of ~ 8%. This is only incorporating two-three weeks of COVID-19 shutdowns. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character...
Read MoreTracking Retail Sales - II
The Hedgeye Cartoon of the Day says it all: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of...
Read MoreTracking Retail Sales
Hint: Cliff Diving! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different...
Read MoreTracking FAAAM
These are: Facebook Amazon Apple Alphabet Microsoft The Big 5 (FAAAM) make up well over 40% of NASDAQ (QQQ) and over 20% of S&P 500 (SPY). The rest of the US stock universe, including the equal-weight S&P 500, has sagged YTD while...
Read MoreTracking Divergences
Within Income & Wealth In The US Income Growth Wealth Accumulation Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may...
Read MoreTracking Divergences
Between the S&P 500 Prices and the S&P 500 Earnings Estimates. Either Earnings Estimates are about to spike or the S&P 500 is about to pike. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
Read MoreTracking Traffic
In Europe: Flat-Lined, Except For Berlin In the US: An Uptick Off All-Time Lows Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past...
Read MoreTracking The V-Shaped Recovery
Hint: We need a new letter. While it is still earlier and only a few states are slowly relaxing stay-at-home mandates, it will take time to get back to pre-Covid-19 levels. The Chart of the Day looks to three states and the Open Table...
Read MoreTracking IPO's
Hint: Falling Off A Cliff In a report by Renaissance Capital, they noted the 2020 US IPO market just experienced its slowest March and April in nearly a decade, “as volatility essentially shut the IPO window.” It said only...
Read MoreTracking Central Bank Balance Sheets
It appears that similar to previous surges in the size of global central bank balance sheets, central banks have the backs of stock investors – again! The Great Wealth Transfer continues! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM}...
Read MoreTracking Service Employment
Hint: Worst Month-over-Month Decline Ever Recorded No wonder there is ~$841 BILLION in mortgage loans in foreberance. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
Read MoreTracking Earnings Estimates
ACTUAL EARNINGS The US is catching up to the rest of the world. So far this quarter, EPS for S&P 500 companies is -8.9% with 60% of companies reported. But remember, COVID-19 really only effected the last 2-4 weeks of the quarter....
Read MoreTracking (Dis)Inflation
It appears – if history is a guide – we are set for a period of deflation. As you can see in the Chart of the Day, Core CPI usually tracks US Real GDP with a six month lag. If that trend holds, we should see Core CPI...
Read MoreTracking Mobility Trends
Hint: Less Bad As you can see in New York City both Driving and Walking are improving. However, Transit across the board continues to languish. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R =...
Read MoreTracking Live Sports
This latest Sports Illustrated cover says it all. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative...
Read MoreTracking Fed Bond Buying
The Federal Reserve bought more Treasury securities in the past 6 WEEKS than the whole foreign sector bought in the past 6 YEARS. They have purchased a total of $2 Trillion since January. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...
Read MoreTracking (Un)Employment
Hint: Terrible On the heels of my earlier note on perverse incentives regarding the CARES Act and supplemental jobless benefits, we get the usual Thursday morning update on initial jobless claims. There are 30 million people –...
Read MorePerverse Incentives In Action
The CARES Act has disincentivized employees from going back to work. With the enhanced unemployment benefits of an additional $600 per week as part of the CARES Act on top of standard weekly unemployment benefits creates a run-rate of...
Read MoreTracking Capital Expenditures
Hint: No V-Shaped Recovery Predicted If company managements thought COVID-19 was temporary and were they confident in future revenue streams coming back immediately, secondary effects such as Planned CapEx would not still be falling...
Read MoreTracking Gasoline Demand
Again Hint: As you can imagine. Research says that in just over three weeks the world will run out of space to store oil at this pace of production. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S +...
Read MoreCartoon of the Day
Sisyphus & Ground Hog Day Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results....
Read MoreTracking The Recovery
Hint: No “V-Shaped” Recovery In this new normal it will take time to acclimate to this environment. Yes this is a poll and could be skewed but ask yourself these questions. Reopening the economy is just the start and you...
Read MoreTracking (Un)Employment
Hint: Still Historic After today’s Initial Jobless Claims report, total employment is back to 1998 levels. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
Read MoreTracking Travel
Hint: Major Declines Across The Globe A survey by IATA in April shows that 60% of passengers will be willing to travel 1 to 2 months after the lock down while 40% will delay travelling by 6 months or more. One benefit of the lock down...
Read MoreConcentrated At The Top
Another Record As you can see from the Chart of the Day, the Top 5 companies in the S&P 500 have NEVER accounted for this much of the index. Just like income inequality, we are seeing FAAAM (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet &...
Read MoreTracking (Un)employment
Hint: See cartoon appended below. Here are the numbers: Total jobs created since Great Recession: 22,088,000. In one month, 10 years of job creation wiped out…as ~21,500,000 Americans have filed for first time unemployment...
Read MoreTracking Gasoline Demand
Hint: As expected since I personally haven’t driven my car more than a few miles in the last four plus weeks. Per the EIA, US fuel demand falls to LOWEST LEVEL EVER in weekly data. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...
Read MoreTracking Economic Reality
Hint: Not improving. According to Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity, the market seems to be in a state of suspended animation, with price moving in the opposite direction from fundamentals. Economic data and earnings are in free fall, but the...
Read MoreTracking Vacation Rentals
Hint: Not good: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types...
Read MoreTracking Restaurant Traffic
Hint: As expected: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different...
Read MoreTracking Earnings
Hint: Not Good. Hint #2: Earnings were slowing before COVID-19 began wreaking its cataclysmic havoc. According to Bloomberg: 36% of companies in the Russell 2000 had negative pre-tax income. 27% of S&P 500 companies with a market cap...
Read MoreTracking Spending
Hint: Not Good! Second Hint: It was tracking down 25% prior to California issuing the countries first stay-at-home order on March 19th. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
Read MoreFunny...Not Funny
I will just leave you with the Chart of the Day: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative...
Read MoreVolatility Rules The Day
Volatility records are being SHATTERED: 22 days in the past 7 weeks have seen the S&P move more than +/- 3%. The previous records were – not surprising – in October 1932 and November 2008. In those 2 cases, the S&P staged...
Read MoreJobs Update
While there is a rally in the stock markets, it is not because of the current jobs situation. As you can see in the Chart of the Day, in just two weeks, ~47% of the job gains created during the record employment expansion are gone....
Read MoreTracking Restaurant Traffic Pre-COVID-19
Hint: Slowing before the official shutdown. OpenTable bookings had declined 70% before restaurant closures. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
Read MoreCredit Card Rates
Consumers are paying higher credit card interest than they were 20 years ago despite rates being pancaked back to 0% by the Fed. They have to make money as cross-border transactions and volumes have cratered globally over the past six...
Read MoreMany Superlatives
I am glad March and the first quarter are behind us. We just ended the worst quarter since 2008 and the worst 1st quarter in the history of the markets. We experienced the fastest and largest decline into a bear market from all-time...
Read MoreNo Cushion
In my most recent blog I mentioned the rush for cash by US corporations. Well it is not so easy for small business owners. According to Womply and AARP, 55% of small businesses could not survive a 3 month shutdown of the economy. This...
Read MoreRush For Cash
It is no surprise that large corporations have been rushing to husband any sources of cash due to the global economic shutdown. Since this is an unprecedented situation it is difficult to model outcomes. Therefore, companies are...
Read MoreBad Analogy
“It feels like strapping on a flak jacket and jumping on hand grenades going off every day,” said the head of one US hedge fund. “And it feels like I’ve lost some body parts.” STOP This was the recurring...
Read MoreBeware of...
…Bear Market Bounces – II This Chart of the Day shows previous bear markets and the largest bear market bounces within each: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
Read MoreBeware of...
…Bear Market Bounces Bear markets are often punctuated with short and sharp bounces higher before resuming their trend lower. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT...
Read MoreContra Indicators
I hope but not likely. The Economist ran two covers near the all-time high and then near the current lows. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
Read MoreA Record Day
On Tuesday the S&P 500 +9.4% making it one of the Top 10 best days ever. However, most best days come along side the largest down days in a phenomenon called volatility clustering. This is not necessarily the sign of a bottom as you...
Read MoreWake Up Congress
As the Fed holds their 3rd Emergency Meeting and announces a slew of new programs to alleviate stress in the bond markets, Congress is doing what it does best. Here are two pictures of the current situation: The first chart is the...
Read More60/40 Update
You know its bad when a basic 60/40 portfolio is in a bear market in less than one month. The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBIAX) is a 60% Stock and 40% Bond mutual fund. Since February 20th to Friday March 20th it is -21.69%! Stay...
Read MoreSay What? - Part II
As a follow-up to my entry from yesterday, here is my Chart of the Day: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance...
Read MoreCorrelations Move Higher
The main reason for diversification is that you want to own various investments that will act differently during market environments. For example, you own bonds to provide income and diversify. However, during the last month of trading...
Read MoreThe Numbers Are Staggering
Just a few Facts of the Day to remind you of the history we just experienced: The S&P 500 moved by over 9% over three straight days. Over 18 trading days, the S&P 500 lost 29.5%. In one six-day stretch, the S&P 500 fell 20.7%....
Read MoreThe Ripple Effects
By now I am sure you have heard directly from someone you know or read a story of the unimaginable effect COVID-19 has had on small business owners. In my Chart of the Day, Goldman Sachs outlines the potential effect of the slowing...
Read MoreIs This Capitalism?
Since 2010, the top 4 US airline companies bought back $45 BILLION of their own stock. Now they are asking for a $50 BILLION bailout. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
Read MoreDo The Five
1. HANDS – Wash Then Often 2. ELBOW – Cough Into It 3. FACE – Don’t Touch It 4. FEET – Stay More Than 3 Feet Apart 5. SICK – Stay Home. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor &...
Read More-9%, 5%, -5%, -10%, 9%
Those were the daily returns of the US stock market last week. This is not normal. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past...
Read MoreNot Much To Say...
…About My Chart of the Day We just experienced the fastest 20% drawdown EVER. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past...
Read MoreThought of the Day
On this historic day, I wanted to share this note from one of the best investors of his generation. “Everyone has the brain power to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.” ~Peter Lynch If you can’t sleep...
Read MoreThought of the Day
“Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.” ~Winston Churchill | Former British Prime Minister Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) |...
Read MoreHistorical Drawdowns
Short, Sharp & Scary In my Chart of the Day from Bespoke Investments, they outline annual drawdowns annually dating back to 1928. After trading today, we have exceeded the median drawdown. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...
Read MoreNot All Bear Markets Lead To Recession
While this is a true statement, it is important to gauge your risk tolerance. Can you emotionally handle losing between 24-37% of your investment funds? Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) |...
Read MoreHigher Yielding Bonds
If history is any indication we may see high yield bonds become higher yielding bonds as credit conditions worsen. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
Read MoreEuropean Bank Stocks
Not good! The index of the largest European bank stocks are -25% in 13 days. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past...
Read MoreAn Update From China
As you can see in the Chart of the Day, car sales in China were slogging through due to an economic slowdown. Then they fell off a cliff due to the coronavirus. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation...
Read MorePowell Panic
In the Cartoon of the Day, Bob Rich pinpoints why the Federal Reserve Chairman cut interest rates by 50 basis points in between meetings this morning. Between equity markets, high yield/levered loan markets and the President, he was...
Read MoreFollow The Bond Market
There is a mantra on Wall Street to follow the actions in the bond market over the stock market as bonds historically have done a better job at sniffing out changes in underlying economic fundamentals. In the Chart of the Day, you can...
Read MoreReasons To Sell
There is one reason to buy: you feel that your investment will go up in value. However, there are many reasons to sell: Although for the long-term investor, this entry could be entitled Reasons to Buy! Stay Tuned, Disciplined &...
Read MoreStats of the Day
Global Bond Yields With the recent Coronavirus catalyst forcing a flight to safety, fully 23% of all bonds trading in the world have a negative yield. This is ~$14 TRILLION in the value of global bonds with negative yields. Stay Tuned,...
Read MoreFact of the Day
Here’s how much money you need to be among the richest 10% of people in the world via @CNBCMakeIt: $93,170. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
Read MoreTweet of the Day
This is not to downplay this strain of the coronavirus but is to serve an historical perspective and frame the recent bout of volatility: @ReformedBroker 17,000 Americans died of H1N1 in 2009, but it barely registered on Wall Street...
Read MoreCartoon of the Day
When stocks AND gold go down together! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future...
Read MoreExperience Pays
This is an interesting Chart of the Day that highlights the increase in average age for new CEO hires. Another sign of the graying of America. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
Read MoreMad Mad World
Has the ‘financial world’ has gone mad? The Financial Times reported last week that sub-1% yielding Greek and Italian 10-year government bonds are now considered safe havens! As a point of reference the US 10-year...
Read MoreNothing To See Here
In the Chart of the Day, we take a gander at asset bubbles over the past 40 years. This is based on asset price appreciation. Clearly, valuation is in the eye of the buyer. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor &...
Read MoreAll Time Is A Long Time
According to the Chart of the Day from @sentimentrader, the NASDAQ 100’s 20-day Moving Average has gone up 88 DAYS IN A ROW. This is the most extreme in history. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character...
Read MoreEarnings Update - II
In my Chart of the Day, I continue on the path of dissecting corporate earnings growth. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that...
Read MoreConcentration At The Top
For anyone that wants to gripe about the concentration of the U.S. market (like me here), here’s some context: The US stock market indices in comparison to the rest of the world are not as concentrated. Stay Tuned, Disciplined &...
Read MoreWealth Transfer
In the Chart of the Day, the Pew Research Center outlines how only the Highest Quintile and the Top 5% are the only groups to have gained wealth since the Global Financial Crisis. Again, all of the maneuvers by Global Central Banks has...
Read MoreEarnings Update
Exclude the Big 5 (Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon and Facebook) based on market capitalization, S&P 500 earnings were down 7.5% in the 4th quarter of 2019 per SocGen. As you can also see in the Chart of the Day, the reported...
Read MoreSustainability Stories
We can do better than this: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results....
Read MoreTweet of the Day
@HedgeyeDDale “Remember, most investors’ conviction levels are most highly correlated with the quality of the narratives they’ve concocted in their head, rather than the rising or falling probabilities of fundamental...
Read MoreBad Breadth
“Stock markets are strongest when they are broad, and weakest when they are narrow.” ~Bob Farrell Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
Read MoreAll Time Is A Long Time
Central Banks providing liquidity is nothing new. The Chart of the Day outlines the 12-month Rate of Change dating back to 1969. As you can see over the past 12 months the Fed provided the largest liquidity boost in history. Result?...
Read MoreSimple Is Better
Most of the time. In my Charts of the Day, we see that most endowments regardless of size fail to beat the standard 60/40 model over the long-term. As Ben Carlson outlines in his article, most of the times simple is better than complex...
Read MoreThoughts of the Day
From Seth Klarman – January 2020 “How ought one navigate an environment such as today’s? With great patience and strict discipline. Every position in the portfolio must offer the prospect of compelling rewards for the...
Read MoreSustainability Stories
According to a new report from research firm Waste Business Journal (yes I subscribe), the United States is estimated to have 18 years of remaining landfill capacity left in 2020. The need for cost-effective, sustainable and...
Read MorePeak Dot.com Performance
Unbelievable update on this Chart of the Day. High P/E stocks beat Low P/E by MORE in the last 10 years than they did in the 10 years to the Dot.com. In short, this comes down to owing Financials & Healthcare VS. Technology and...
Read MoreStats of the Day
It only costs $10,000 to purchase a Chick-fil-A franchise, but here is the rub: According to Chick-fil-A, 60,000 people apply to be operators every year — and only ~80 are selected. With a 0.13% acceptance rate, it’s harder...
Read MoreDividend Seekers
This Chart of the Day is not intended to be direct investment advice, but an update on global stock yields: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
Read MoreStats of the Day
Per Goldman Sachs: The S&P 500 market capitalization is currently concentrated in its five largest stocks to a degree not witnessed since the peak of the Tech bubble. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Facebook collectively account...
Read MoreSuper Bowl Recipes By State
This special football edition of Chart of the Day is from Google Trends. It monitored the most searched terms by state leading up to last year’s Super Bowl. My wife makes the best buffalo chicken dip. Stay Tuned, Disciplined &...
Read MoreChart of the Day
With volatility rearing its head this past week, here is one of my favorite charts. It outlines how in the near-term investments have a wide range of outcomes. However, over a truly long-term time frame the volatility of returns is...
Read MoreAwesome Videos of the Day
An advance copy of the Budweiser Super Bowl commercial… Budweiser ✔@budweiserusa America, look beyond the labels. You might be surprised by what you find.Watch Budweiser’s #SuperBowlLIV commercial now. #ThisBudsForYou 46...
Read MoreBy The Numbers
SARS broke out in 2002; MERS spread across the world in 2012. Late in 2019, a third deadly coronavirus began to radiate out from Wuhan, a city of 11 million: 2019-nCoV. Six to eight weeks after the outbreak is believed to have begun,...
Read MoreOutbreak Update
In 2003, when the SARS outbreak struck China, the nation accounted for 4.3 percent of world economic output. Last year, it was 16.3 percent, so the coronavirus outbreak and subsequent reaction MAY have world-impacting economic effects...
Read MoreIt Finally Happened
After 71 relatively calm trading days, the S&P 500 finally closed with a move bigger than 1% on Monday. Although this is one of the longest streaks in history, it is quite interesting that we’ve seen a cluster of long streaks...
Read MorePerspective
Can you guess how many US citizens have died from the flu this season? New data from the CDC released on Friday estimates that so far this season, at least 6.4 million people have caught the flu, 55,000 people have been hospitalized...
Read MoreStats of The Day
“Today 50 percent of the investment-grade market is rated BBB, and in 2007 it was 35 percent,” Scott Minerd noted in a letter to clients this week. “More specifically, about 8 percent of the investment-grade market...
Read MoreYears Ending In '0'
They typically are not good for the US stock market. However, I would not and do not put any stock into this regarding the management of client portfolios. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation...
Read MoreThis Is A Test
This is a great Thought Experiment from Meb Faber who has done extensive research on valuations across countries. Which of the below investment options in the chart would you choose to invest in today? Most would opt for the...
Read MoreParty Like It's 1999
Presented without comment: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results....
Read MoreStick To Your Process
This is great Chart of the Day from The New York Times. It outlines why building models isn’t the hardest part. It is having the discipline to follow the models and actually utilize them. Case in point, football. You can see what...
Read MoreMartin Luther King Jr.
This is one of my favorite quotes and dovetails beautifully into The Investor & Character Equation: “The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of...
Read MoreWhat A Run
Not just the San Francisco 49ers and their run to the Super Bowl but also the stock market of late. As you can see in my Chart of the Day, over 87% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day moving average. What does that mean?...
Read MoreThis Is Not New
In the Chart of the Day (O’Shaughnessy Asset Management), you can see that historically going back to 1963, the Top 20% of stocks have historically represented roughly 80% of Market Capitalization and Sales. Stay Tuned,...
Read MoreSustainability Stories
Aggregated from JUST Capital: WORKERSDelta plans to pay out $1.6 billion in profit sharing to its employees this year, marking the 6th year it has paid more than $1 billion back to its workers. – Kavya Vaghul Taco Bell, a Yum...
Read MoreStock Lull
The S&P 500 is on one of its longest streaks without a 1% daily move in the past five decades, highlighting how the latest leg of the stock-market rally has been a gradual climb rather than a euphoric surge. The broad equity gauge...
Read MoreThought of the Day
With the continued move higher across most asset classes, overconfidence is a major risk for investors. When investing seems easy, please be reminded it is not. It can continue uninterrupted for some time, but reversion to the mean is...
Read MoreGoodbye...
It should come as no surprise that when you chronically raise income and property taxes you will have a groundswell of movement to lower tax areas. Case in point. Over the past decade we have seen residents move from such states to...
Read MoreTweet of the Day
This is not a solicitation to buy or sell any security! This is from @DKThomp regarding the upcoming IPO of mattress company Casper. This appears to be Casper’s business: Buy mattress at $400. Sell at $1,000. Refund/return 20% of...
Read MoreThought of the Day
“It is impossible to produce superior performance unless you do something different from the majority.” ~John Templeton Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT...
Read MoreA Pattern Is Revealed
So exclaimed a headline in Barron’s. It is as if they found the key to the markets. As they outlined: A week does not a year make, but it may offer some clues as to where the market will end 2020. History shows that the S&P 500...
Read MoreHow Do You Stack Up?
In my Chart of the Day we examining how the typical Family Offices allocates their assets. The average household size in this study is $1.2 billion. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S +...
Read MoreHow Did The Big Get Bigger
Sales! Revenue generated in past decade: Apple = $1.9 trillion (Largest Driver of S&P 500 Returns Last Decade) Samsung = $1.8 trillion Amazon = $1.2 trillion (3rd Largest Driver of S&P 500 Returns) IBM = $898 billion Microsoft = $888...
Read MoreThe Big Get Bigger
Want to know what drove returns in the S&P 500 in 2019 and for the last decade? Take a look at my Chart of the Day and you won’t be surprised: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S +...
Read MoreCan They Ever Go Back?
The Bank of England has data on its balance sheet and GDP back to 1700. So how “extraordinary” has central bank activity been the last 10-years Consider the Chart of the Day: All global Central Banks have done something...
Read MoreChart of the Day
CNBC looked back at the market reactions of the last 20 Middle East crises and to no surprise the big winner was Oil: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
Read MoreThought of the Day
As Warren Buffet reminds us: “Forecasts usually tell us more of the forecaster than of the future.” Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
Read MoreForecasting Follies
I told you there would be more! These are been provided by RP Seawright: There always seems to be a bull market in bearish predictions – predictions that are often spectacularly wrong. Note the following huge errors during the...
Read MoreWhen Predicting...
…Predict Often and Don’t Use a Date It is that time of year when we get everyone’s 2020 outlook. I will save you your most precious commodity which is time: ignore most if not all of them. Here is a sample and there...
Read MoreLow Starting Yield
Congratulations! The Effective Yield on US Corporate BBB-rated bonds have never been lower, as you can see in the Chart of the Day. This does not bode well for future bond returns as historically you earn a similar rate of return as...
Read MoreHappy New Year 2020
Here is a great list from Vala Afshar to start the new year: Don’t be impressed by: Money Job title Appearances Experience Affiliations Imitation Big words Be impressed by: Kindness Trustworthiness Unselfish generosity Humility...
Read More2019 In One Chart
No caption necessary! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different...
Read MoreDiminishing Returns...
…When Measured In Points As you can see in the Chart of the Day, a 1,000 point move when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was at 1,000 equates to a 100% return. However, a 1,000 point move when the DJIA starts at 19,000...
Read MoreCollege Cost Inflation
This Chart of the Day from dshort.com says it all: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative...
Read MoreStudent Loans vs. Other Investments
Student loans may be a liability on the consumer balance sheet, but they constitute an asset for Uncle Sam. Just how big? It’s about 50.7% of the total Federal assets. This is 10.8 times larger than the 4.7% for the Total...
Read MoreQuestion of the Day
What line item below is the largest asset in Uncle Sam’s financial accounts? A) U.S. Official Reserve Assets B) Total Mortgages C) Taxes Receivable D) Student Loans The correct answer, as of the latest quarterly data, is …...
Read MoreMerry Christmas
To all of my readers who celebrate Christmas, I wish you a wonderful day filled with family and friends! To those who don’t celebrate Christmas, I wish you a day of rest and relaxation! To all of you, the markets will reopen...
Read MoreWhy The Markets Rallied?
Easy! Global Central Banks around the globe continued easing monetary policy: Fed: easing ECB: easing BOE: easing BOJ: easing SNB: easing Denmark: easing Australia: easing Brazil: easing Russia: easing India: easing China: easing...
Read MoreThe Wealth Gap
“By the time Boomers had reached a median age of 35, they collectively owned 21% of the nation’s wealth—versus just 8% for Gen-Xers at age 35 and maybe even less for Millennials when they reach that age.” ~Neil...
Read MoreStats of the Day
Once again, the best performing equity market this year was Venezuela with a more modest GAIN of 3,667%. Unfortunately, when converted to US dollars that becomes a LOSS of ~50%, making it the worst performing market, followed by...
Read MoreTrade Deal Thoughts
While we are still waiting on the finalization of Phase I, I want to look back on the continued nonsense of how many times we were ‘close’ to a deal. The President probably has three more months of gaming the stock market...
Read MoreTweet of the Day
Via @EconomPic Annualized returns for the 35 years ending yesterday (12/17/1984 – 12/17/2019): Russell 1000 Growth: 11.34% Russell 1000 Value: 11.21% On 12/17/1984: #1 movie was Beverly Hills Cop #1 single was Out of Touch by...
Read MoreThe Chase For Yield
As you can see in my Chart of the Day, junk bonds are now paying the least extra yield over investment-grade bonds of the same maturity since November 2018. And that was when the junk bond market had no issuance and no liquidity due to...
Read MoreGrowth Over Value
In my Chart of the Day, Dan Rasmussen highlights how Deep-value portfolios of any size in 2019 were about 26% behind the most expensive decile of the market, with the smaller half of deep value performing even worse. He also end his...
Read MoreReversion To The Mean - II - Explained
After posting this chart yesterday, I found this Stat of the Day to share. The S&P 500 is now very tail heavy, as the 10 largest members represent a quarter of the index. That level of concentration in momentum stocks is similar to the...
Read MoreReversion To The Mean - II
As you can see in my Chart of the Day, we are seeing a record divergence between the price movement in the S&P 500 and corporate profits. Over a long period of time you can see that earning drive stock market returns. However, we are...
Read MoreReversion To The Mean
This gap will close eventually. Either by investors buying CCC bonds and catching-up or BB bonds selling off and catching-down. What is interesting to note is that this flare-up started around the same time as the issues in the Repo...
Read MoreRecord Duration
US Investment Grade Corporate bond market duration has never been longer – ever. With interest rates near all-time lows it makes sense that corporations have accessed the debt market with low coupons and longer maturities. Just...
Read MoreQuestion of the Day
Did Millenials really buy Berkshire Hathaway stock or were they gifted shares? The Chart of the Day outlines the Top 10 equity holdings as percentage of assets held in equities across all generations, according to a Schwab report: Stay...
Read MoreAfraid of Heights?
Based off of my Fact of the Day regarding this being the first decade in modern history without a “recession,” it is worth mentioning that jobs data is a late-cycle data point. As you can see in the Chart of the Day,...
Read MoreStat of the Day
In a recent Wall Street Journal article, they highlighted the growing share of companies in the S&P 500 that are experiencing a slowdown in earning: A third of S&P 500 companies have posted a yoy decline in earnings in 2019. The last...
Read MoreFact of the Day
This will be the first decade in modern economic history (since 1850) that the US won’t experience a single recession. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT...
Read MoreWhere Is The Money Going?
According to a recent article in The Wall Street Journal, “Investors have pulled $135.5 billion from U.S. stock-focused mutual funds and exchange-traded funds so far this year, the biggest withdrawals on record.” Stay Tuned...
Read MoreWhat Inflation - II?
College Education: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different...
Read MoreWhat Inflation?
US medical insurance premiums are up sharply – this will be a headwind for consumption next year: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease...
Read MoreCartoon of the Day
Around and around we go… Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results....
Read MoreIt's Not QE?
I will let these charts speak for themselves. The bottom of the V in the chart above coincides with the spike in the chart below. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT...
Read MoreUpward Trend Resumes
When interest rates are near all-time lows and you need cash to buyback stock just leverage your balance sheet. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
Read MoreThoughts of the Day
“I had a considerable passion to get rich. Not because I wanted Ferraris — I wanted the independence. I desperately wanted it. I thought it was undignified to have to send invoices to other people. I don’t know where...
Read MoreCostly Venture
Since we are less than a year from the 2020 election I thought this Chart of the Day was relevant especially with self-made billionaire Mike Bloomberg entering the fray on the Democratic side. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM}...
Read MoreHappy Thanksgiving
I wanted to wish all of you a wonderful Thanksgiving! One of my other passions outside of my family and investing is lacrosse/personal development. This is a great day to breakdown the meaning of Thanksgiving into two parts: Thanks and...
Read MoreReal Estate Sub-Sector Returns
In my Chart of the Day, I wanted to highlight the divergences even within a specific sector over time. Below are total returns of publicly traded real estate sectors over the past 10 years: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...
Read MoreHistorical Interest Rate Visual
With the US 10-Year Treasury Bond yielding 1.79% (which is attractive compared to other sovereign bonds), I thought this Chart of the Day from Visual Capitalist was interesting. As you can see it really has been a ‘Race To The...
Read MoreHistorical Interest Rate Visual
With the US 10-Year Treasury Bond yielding 1.79% (which is attractive compared to other sovereign bonds), I thought this Chart of the Day from Visual Capitalist was interesting. As you can see it really has been a ‘Race To The...
Read MoreFamily Office Allocations
Interesting note from UBS Wealth Management: Family offices are planning to increase their exposure to private equity — the second biggest allocation in their portfolios — amid doubts that hedge funds can protect their...
Read MoreSign Me Up
According to a recent piece in The New York Times: Companies that make up the S&P 500 index had an average effective tax rate of 18.1% in 2018, down from 25.9% in 2016. As a result, they have spent nearly three times as much on...
Read MoreWatch This Space
With the yield curve flattening again and high yield spreads widening again, keep an eye on the overall health of the bond market and its liquidity going into 2020. Specifically, in today’s Chart of The Day, we are seeing...
Read MoreLooong Dated Bonds
For those thinking about the very long-term, Austria has bonds maturing in September, 2117. As interest rates around the world fell, sovereign issues took advantage of investor thirst for positive yield and started offering some...
Read MoreFacts of the Day
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has increased $300 billion in less than two months. If the “repo funding” continues at this pace, the January 2015 high will be taken out by late February of 2019. It will be $800...
Read MoreKey Drivers of Stock Returns
Just two stocks, Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL), have now a combined market cap larger than the Russell 2000 and the entire German stock market. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S +...
Read MoreHeadline Comparisons
Here is a truthful headline and quote from a story in the FT: US and China struggle to finalise ‘phase one’ trade deal. “One person with knowledge of the discussions said that China was ‘absolutely’...
Read MoreWatch Reversion To The Mean
Sentiment in the global stock markets is a bit frothy. No this does not mean we are about to enter into some sort of black hole sell-off e.g. this time last year. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is at 90% which historically is not a...
Read MoreVeteran Day - II
I read the below quote last night and was reminded of this incredible story. Douglas A. Zembiec, who was often known as the “Lion of Fallujah” was an officer in the United States Marine Corps and a member of the CIA’s...
Read MoreVeterans Day
“A veteran is someone who, at one point in their life wrote a blank check made payable to ‘The United States of America,’ for an amount up to and including their life.” ~Unknown We are the land of the free,...
Read MoreWhat Is He Waiting For?
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on an every growing mound of cash and short-term investments – in BILLIONS: 2018: $130B 2018: $116B 2017: $92B 2016: $53B 2015: $64B 2014: $49B 2013: $31B 2012: $41B 2011: $37B...
Read MoreStarting Earlier Every Year
Yes my personal consumption of Peppermint Mocha is now a year-round undertaking – although you can only get the lower calorie version during the holiday season. In the Chart of the Day, you can see consumers are hunting for DEALS...
Read MoreExperiment of the Day
Microsoft found that implementing a four-day workweek led to a 40% boost in productivity, the company announced as part of the results of its “Work-Life Choice Challenge.” The summer project examined work-life balance and...
Read MoreCEO - Chief Exit Offiers
As a follow-up to my note on Lapses in Judgement it has been a record your for CEO departures. McDonald’s, Under Armour, Nike, and WeWork all lost their leaders last month. 2008 previously set the record for most CEO departures,...
Read MoreLapses In Judgement
On the heels of the McDonald’s news this past week where CEO Steve Easterbrook was forced to resign due to a relationship with an employee, Jessica DiNapoli of Reuters dug deeper into this issue. In 2018, fully 39 percent of CEOs...
Read MoreThoughts of the Day
David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs after being stung by losses in Uber and WeWork, he told Bloomberg that profits matter more in this bifurcated market we are seeing in both private equity, venture capital and bond markets. After...
Read MoreOne Year From Today
We will elect a President. Here is the Calendar of Events to follow along at home. Here are the latest polls – three in fact – on the Democratic front runners. Here is an animated Candidate Field Guide. Stay Tuned,...
Read MoreSustainability Stories
Who emits the most CO2 today? Appended below are the highlights of a recent report by Our World In Data. China is, by a significant margin, Asia’s and the world’s largest emitter: it emits nearly 10 billion tonnes each year...
Read MoreDon't Call It QE
As a follow-up to my entry entitled Is It QE or Not I wanted to provide a better visual on the reversal of Fed policy of Quantitative Tightening (QT). As you can see there has been $258 billion of Fed money printing in just two months!...
Read MoreReversion To The Mean
In case you have not held any deep value stocks, the Chart of the Day is here to highlight the fact that the last decade of Value underperformance vs. Growth is the second worst since 1937. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...
Read MoreStats of the Day
Happy Halloween The average trick-or-treater hauls in between 3,500 and 7,000 calories worth of candy on Halloween night. Tt takes 44 hours of walking to burn that off! Earning Quality “NIPA profits have been flat for the last...
Read MoreWho Is Next?
The Economist Chart of the Day appended below shows how much wealth has been made in technology over the last decade. You’re not a genius for predicting that (eventually) this trend corrects. What sector is next to see this kind...
Read MoreWhere Will We End
As we are close to wrapping up this decade, some perspective on stock returns. Average Real Returns (After Inflation) per Decade were 6.6% per year. Worst was -3.4% (2000s) Best was 16.7% (1950s) We’re currently ending the top 5...
Read MoreCheap Money
Some things never change. The below is from The Economist – 1858 (Hat Tip Jamie Catherwood): “It is equally beyond doubt that every speculative mania which has run its course of folly and disaster has derived its original...
Read MoreIs It QE Or Not?
Semantics. But either way with the issues within the plumbing of the repo and money markets of last month, they ARE EXPANDING their balance sheet. Call it what you will. By the looks of the above Chart of the Day, an increase in the...
Read MorePublic Over Private
The tables have turned and my take on WeWork exemplifies the excess capital swimming in the private equity / venture capital pool. While this is just an estimate of private market multiples and is not a ‘signal’ it is more...
Read MoreLet's Play A Game
How many private planes does it take to run a $40 billion industrial company whose stock price is at the same level it was at the end of 2013? If you guessed EIGHT you would be correct! Oh and don’t forget the one helicopter. The...
Read MoreThoughts of the Day
From Howard Marks in this latest Memo – Mysterious: Negative interest rates are nothing short of a mystery; they’re likely to throw off whatever we knew about the financial world and how things worked in the past. With more...
Read MoreSustainability Stories
As it turns out, the average American wastes 900 cups of water every week from leaving the water running while they brush their teeth — a guilty action that 42% of people admit to doing, according to a survey conducted by Red...
Read MoreHow Much Money Will Make You Happy?
A Harvard survey of 4,000 millionaires found that the millionaires worth $1 million were approximately as happy as the millionaires worth $8 million. This finding — that at the end of the day, $7 million is worth basically $0...
Read MoreWhat Is The 1%
Based on recent IRS data, anyone making more than $515,371 in annual adjusted gross income is in the Top 1% of all earners in the US. This is a rise of 7.2% from the year prior, even after adjusting for inflation. Since 2011, when the...
Read MoreActively Passive
The 20 largest ETFs now have $1.556 trillion in assets. While the indexes they track are passive, their users are anything but. Over the previous twelve months, the total trading volume in these products was a whopping $11.529 trillion...
Read MoreThe Stealth War
How China Took Over While America’s Elite Slept is a new book by Robert Spalding, Brigadier General. I have highlighted a few of the salient, concerning points regarding our relationship with China. “Having served as Chief...
Read MoreDon't Call It QE
The Fed announced last week that it will begin to buy Treasury bills today an initial pace of $60 billion a month and continue those purchases into the second quarter of 2020, marking a pivot for the central bank. “In light of...
Read MoreThought & Question of the Day
The “Trade Deal” summed up in one sentence from 1688: “The expectation of an event creates a much deeper impressionon the exchange than the event itself.” – Jose de la Vega, 1688 So, how will the markets...
Read MoreThe Trade Deal
Let’s be honest and not political. The “Best Ever Trade Deal” isn’t awesome. The trade Bean Deal “Phase One” is nothing. China buys a ton of soybeans (as 1/3 of their herd is killed by Swine Flu)...
Read MoreIvy League Performance Update
This week’s Bloomberg column from Barry Ritholtz looks at the lackluster collective performance of Ivy League university endowments: Harvard: 6.5%, Yale 5.7%; University of Pennsylvania 6.5%; Dartmouth 7.5%; Brown 12.4% (Smallest...
Read MoreStat of the Day
China’s debt levels are unsustainable. China’s private nonfinancial sector credit is roughly 2x its nominal GDP. That ratio compares to 1.6x for the US and Japan and 1.5x for the Eurozone. Moreover, four-fifths of all...
Read MoreCracks In Private Equity
In looking at the below Chart of the Day, you have to wonder if this image via @SoberLook serves as a warning to the Private Equity managers and General Partners (GP.’s) who are sitting atop a record $2.5 trillion in dry powder?...
Read MoreIs The Fed Out To Lunch
We will see in a few weeks. The Fed Funds Futures (FFF) implied probability on a rate cut at the end of October is now 84.2%. Only a few days ago the probability was sub-40%. There is a 0% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut and...
Read MoreGet It While It Lasts
Money for nothing. Spain sold €2.18bn of 10-year bonds at record low yield of 0.115% vs 0.21% at the last auction in September. Although, with a debt ratio of almost 100%, the country is one of the most heavily indebted nations in...
Read MoreThe jobs Report
Headline was a +136,000 growth in payrolls with a positive revision to August and July. The five-month stretch of downward revisions has been arrested. We have a fresh low in the unemployment rate and the underemployment rate fell as...
Read MoreClassic Late Cycle
For the past year, we have seen a steady decline in US consumers’ interest in buying large household goods, i.e. washers, dryers, computers, TVs, furniture etc. This sentiment indicator has historically been a very good leading...
Read MoreISM Manufacturing PMI Update
US Manufacturing (PMI) below 50 for 2 months. US PMI data this week gave the market a wake-up call to what I have been saying for months: the economy in the US is slowing, This is the 2nd consecutive monthly reading below 50,...
Read MoreUnicorns Don't Exist
Well they may in the world of private equity. There are often referred to as companies that are worth over $1 billion and still private enterprises. Eventually they go public, unless your are WeWork. However, the public markets have...
Read MoreStat of the Day
According to The Kauffman Foundation: From 1986-1999, 29 top venture capital (VC) funds invested 21 billion and returned $85 billion. Over the same time period, the rest of the VC universe invested $160 billion and returned a scant $85...
Read MoreA Tale As Old As Time
We are seeing this in the GM worker strike. As companies make more in profits, labor wants their share of the pie. This dynamic has a ripple effect we see in the later part of the cycle. As explained by Christian Drake: “If...
Read MoreThought of the Day
“You can, of course, pay too much for even the best of businesses…. Investors making purchases in an overheated market need to recognize that it may often take an extended period for the value of even an outstanding...
Read MoreRate Cuts Are No Panacea
This is your daily reminder that as the 4th quarter gets underway economic cycles still matter. More than tweets, “trade deals” and any other headlines CNBC throws at you. As you can see in my Chart of the Day, the last two...
Read MoreEven Returns
In my Chart of the Day, you can see that after several years of the stock market being driven by only a handful of companies, this divergence has reverted back to the mean. While this does not factor in the last two quarters, it gives...
Read MoreRight on Cue
Jefferies’ merchant banking unit wrote down the value of its investment in We Co. by $146 million. As I posted my thoughts on WeWork IWork, the largest monetary losers in this will not be the buyers of the IPO (aka the retail...
Read MoreMore Like IWork...
…Instead of WeWork On the heels of his resignation termination, WeWork founder Adam Neumann today stated, “Too much focused has been placed on me.” Oh really…you only mentioned yourself 169 times in the S-1....
Read MoreData Points
Whether you have spent time with me talking about my investment process or when I was a lacrosse coach, you would know I am a believer in data points and process. I have been sounding the drumbeat on our view of an earnings slowdown....
Read MoreComing To A Screen Near You?
In all honesty, I have no idea. However, we do use history as a guide. As you can see in the Chart of the Day, in pre-election years, the markets tend (but not always) have a move to the downside. As I have been stating, I tend to...
Read MoreThought of the Day
It is amazing what one week of rising interest rates does! This Chart of the Day comes from LPL Research chief strategist John Lynch and it looks at the phenomenon of negative-yielding debt. Lynch notes that “Unfortunately, the...
Read MoreThought of the Day
“Things are never clear until it’s too late.” ~Peter Lynch This is why it is imperative to have an investment process. You have to make decisions with incomplete information. However, you want to be able to tilt the...
Read MoreAbout Those FedEx Numbers
In the Chart of the Day, I wanted to highlight why we should pay attention to the financial health of the largest freight company in the world. Concurrent with my outlook for a year-over-year slowdown in US GDP, the chart seconds this...
Read MoreInteresting Federal Reserve Observation
Unless I fell asleep for a few minutes during Chairman Powell’s press conference yesterday, I don’t recall him being asked about the Fed’s Dual Mandate of achieving full employment and containing inflation. Although,...
Read MoreAdd Fuel To The Fed Fire
Chart of the Day, Courtesy of the New York Fed The index for future business climate declined 11 points to -18.6, its lowest level since 2009, indicating that firms expected the business climate to worsen in the months ahead. Add this...
Read MoreQuote of the Day
“Our performance continues to be negatively impacted by a weakening global macro environment driven by increasing trade tensions and policy uncertainty,” FedEx Chief Executive Frederick W. Smith said in a statement. If...
Read MoreGuess The Return
At first glance this chart looks very bullish. From the 1929 peak to the 2019 peak—90 years—inflation-adjusted capital gains (no dividends, taxes, or fees) the S&P gained 1.9% annualized. This shows how important income is...
Read MoreHome Country Bias
Morningstar has the Chart of the Day as it outlined Domestic Revenues for each country. The Chinese index leads the way with 87.26% of revenues coming from Chinese companies. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor &...
Read MoreFact of the Day
Passive US equity funds have finally surpassed active US equity funds in assets under management. By the end of August, passive US funds had total net assets of $4.27 trillion, compared with $4.25 trillion in active US equity funds,...
Read MoreWatch Corporate Earnings
In my Charts of the Day, I focus on the RoC in earnings. That is the Rate of Change on a year-over-year basis. In the first chart, even though the absolute earnings levels will be positive, they are set to slow by 3.6% on a...
Read MorePatriot Day
“September 11 impressed upon us that life is a precious gift… And I think we all have a duty to devote at least a small portion of our daily lives to ensuring that neither America nor the world ever forgets September 11...
Read MoreYield Curve & Recessions
First, let me start by saying my capital allocation process and signals do not focus on recessions but Rate of Change. Second, you don’t need a recession to lose 20% of your money. Just look back to the 4th quarter of 2018 when...
Read MoreDelinquency Update
No surprise borrowers are paying down their mortgages and Home Equity Lines of Credit with the drop in interest rates. In my Chart of the Day, we are seeing a steady borrower, but are experiencing some fissures in the auto loan market...
Read MoreSmart or Greedy
In my Chart of the Day, I am pondering if banks are getting smarter or staying greedy? Banks are in the business of borrowing short and lending long. Meaning they borrow from the government at short-term, lower rates and then lend to...
Read MoreClimb The Mountain
Not sure how long this will last, but the iron clad reversion-to-the mean rule in investing says it won’t be forever. This Chart of the Day highlights the relative outperformance of US stocks vs. European stocks. This is an...
Read MoreSustainability Stories
It looks like China is already winning one war: recycling batteries for electric cars. “Deployment of about 140 million electric vehicles by 2030 will require: 3 million tons more copper a year 1.3 millions tons more nickel 263...
Read MoreThe Trend Is Not Your Friend
In the Chart of the Day, you can see Global PMI’s have experienced one of the longest slowing streaks in decades. Beware of FOMO! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
Read MoreUnique Chart of the Day
In my Chart of the Day, you can see that an hour of work buys more alcohol today than any time in history. Is that due to the amount of spiked seltzers on the market or the collective stress levels of US workers? Stay Tuned,...
Read MoreWhere Did My Money Go?
In my Chart of the Day, you can find out! This is a snapshot of what the average American household made and where it was spent. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT...
Read MoreChina Clamps Down
Specifically on capital flight out of the Yuan after the currency weakens to 11 year lows. Here is an example from the Nikkei Asian Review article: “If a parent wishes to pay school expenses for a student studying abroad, an...
Read MoreAlligator Jaws
At some point in time the jaws close! This could have been titled Reversion to the Mean. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that...
Read MoreThought of the Day
Dr. Michael Pilsbury’s perspective on Chinese strategy is an important one to consider when factoring in the trade deal saga: “China’s Marathon strategy depends heavily on goodwill from other countries, especially the...
Read MoreThought of the Day
“Good investment advice is repetitive and boring. There is nothing exciting about it.” ~D. Muthukrishnan So tune out CNBC and read! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R =...
Read MoreThought of the Day
The silly season in software IPO’s will only get worse from here. According to Ami Joseph, there are ~300 companies in the private realm worth more than $1 billion, aka unicorns. It would be hard to ignore taking money from...
Read MorePerspective: Long-Term Returns
With volatility increasing and set to continue for the foreseable future, I thought this updated Chart of the Day would be beneficial. As you can see on any given day the S&P 500 has a 53% chance of going up. However, when you have a...
Read MoreChart of the Day
As mentioned previously and with the move to historical lows recently in US Treasury bonds, your mortgage broker may see an uptick in business. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R =...
Read MoreNothing To See Here
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published the preliminary annual benchmark revision for the national employment data this morning. The estimate revisions occur on an annual basis and cover the April to March period (so, April...
Read MoreSearch For Safe Havens
In my Chart of the Day, I outline how the markets responded last week while in the throes of the biggest flight to safety in decades. Treasuries, gold and the Japanese yen are clocking ‘the largest number of outsized...
Read MoreSearch For (Positive) Yield...
…Means you must come to America! As you can see in my Chart of the Day, the US bond market represents ~94% of the yield you can capture in all of global bonds. Between ~$17 trillion in negative yielding bonds and bonds that...
Read MoreInverted Yield Curve - III
As you can see in the Chart of the Day, as the yield curve flattens, banks historically have a lower willingness to lend to consumers. This would be carried out via higher credit scores necessary to borrow, higher rates levied for...
Read MoreInverted Yield Curve - II
In this Chart of the Day courtesy of Macrobond, we see that over 53% of all yield curves globally are inverted. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
Read MoreInverted Yield Curve
When you hear me use the term ‘Macro Tourists’ my below Chart of the Day is why. Investors have a tendency to lock-on to a new phrase/term when the market volatility increases, like it has this week. In the above chart, the...
Read MoreSustainability Series
According to a new study published in Nature Energy, there are 344 cities in China with solar energy generation that is cheaper than the energy coming from the overall grid. There are another 75 cities where the price of solar can even...
Read MoreBuy The Unloved
Morningstar Research recently published a report on how a contrarian strategy of buying unloved, out-of-favor sectors based on fund outflows performed. The looked into the 3 Categories with the Largest Outflows in the Prior Year Since...
Read MoreThe Negative Bond Yield Matrix
Appended below is a great visual highlighting all of the negative sovereign bond yields across the globe: 50-Years: Switzerland 30-Years: Germany, Netherlands 20-Years: Denmark 15-Years: Japan, Austria, Finland, Sweden, France, Belgium...
Read MoreA Benefit of Lower Rates
Yes it is true that lower rates and a flat yield curve hurt savers; however, one main advantage of lower rates is on mortgages. As I have mentioned lending standards tend to increase when the yield curve flattens, but if you are in...
Read MoreFinancial Planning Process
I wanted to take a moment to switch gears with this post. In my Chart of the Day, I wanted to highlight a flow chart from Michael Kitces on the Financial Planning Process. It is very important to start with a realistic budget and begin...
Read MoreTweet of the Day
Via @ValaAfshar 52% of Fortune 500 companies have disappeared since year 2000. In the Fourth Industrial Revolution, every company is a technology company. Every company is a data company. Every company must operate like software...
Read MoreMarket Musings
Why do investors make irrational decisions? Daniel Kahneman is spot on with his assessment: “Because the long term is not where life is lived.” Especially in this era of instant gratification, having patience is paramount...
Read MoreThought of the Day
“As the velocity of information consumption increases, the ability to separate the significant from the meaningless becomes more important.” ~Shane Parrish It is imperative you get your information sources correct. You...
Read MoreFact of the Day
Actually a reminder, now that banks are starting to report earnings for the 3rd quarter. In 2008, Bank of America got $45 billion in TARP funds, yet it paid out $3.3 BILLION in BONUSES, including 28 bonuses over $3 million. Merrill...
Read MoreTweet of the Day
From: @behaviorgap The concept…the very idea…of retirement is dumb. Waiting until some arbitrary age to enjoy life PLUS stopping all meaningful work all at once…DUMB. I will never retire. I will just do more of...
Read MoreWhy The Markets...
…Are Not Always Efficient Because HUMANS and their EMOTIONS are involved! “The market is fond of making mountains out of molehills and exaggerating ordinary vicissitudes into major setbacks.” – Benjamin Graham...
Read MoreWelcome to August
The month of August is the worst performing month for the S&P 500 since 1994. The stock index has suffered an average loss of 0.6% (total return) during August over the last 25 years (1994-2018). The best performing month since 1994...
Read MoreEquifax Data Breach
What do you need to do? 147 million American's data was stolen from Equifax in 2017. The data maintained by a credit bureau is immense and put all people affected by this breach at serious risk of Identity Theft. Identity Theft is when...
Read MoreThe Best Investors Are...
…Known To: Read nonstop about everything Seek to understand opposing views Refrain from following the crowd Be comfortable appearing wrong for long periods of time Have the courage to act when others are scared These are Simple...
Read MoreGlobal Yields
For 10-Year Sovereign Bonds as of July 25th: USA = 2.05% Great Britain = 0.681% Germany = -0.374% Swiss = -0.67% Japan = -0.147% Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT...
Read MoreThought of the Day
With US stock markets overbought and global economic data languishing, this mantra will be critical to keep in mind over the next few months: Risk is not volatility. Risk is permanent loss of capital. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient!...
Read MoreMarket Morsels
The Chinese economy grew by 6.2% in the 2nd quarter 2019, i.e., year-over-year growth rate, the lowest growth rate reported by China in records maintained since March 1992. The last time the United States reported a growth rate of at...
Read MoreMarket Morsels
The stock market has produced a total return of +14.7% per year over the last 10 years through 6/30/19. The worst quarter over the last decade was a drop of 13.9% in the 3rd quarter of 2011. The S&P 500 was used as the stock...
Read MoreThought of the Day
“A wealth of information creates a poverty of attention.” ~Herbert Simon Just because you have an endless reservoir of information in your pocket doesn’t mean it makes you smarter. Endlessly scrolling and only...
Read MoreThoughts of the Day
Peter L. Bernstein, the famous investor, on how to make better decisions when investing and in life: “You have to keep reminding yourself: We don’t know what’s going to happen with anything, ever, over any period. And...
Read MoreTweet of the Day
From @RudyHavenstein Attention young people: Today I made my own avocado toast, saving $5. If I did this every day for 2,920,548 years, I’d have as much money as Citigroup’s 2008 bonus pool. Stay Tuned, Disciplined &...
Read MoreHead Scratcher
In my Thought of the Day, the veteran CEO of CSX can almost be heard scratching his head on the earnings call as the stock slides 12% in two days: “The present economic backdrop is one of the most puzzling I have experienced in...
Read MoreProbabilities of Fed Rate Cut
As of this writing the options market is pricing in a 100% probability of a some level of rate cut in two weeks: 65% chance of 25 basis point cut 35% chance of 50 basis point cut Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor &...
Read MoreTrump Tweet-O-Meter
I couldn’t resist and this is not political. SentimentTrader sent this chart out earlier this morning and I couldn’t resist in posting it. There seems to be a high correlation to President Trumps tweets about...
Read MoreRecession Risk Rising
Based on the Chart of the Day, the risk of a recession has risen considerably according to the New York Federal Reserve Bank Recession Probability Indicator. This uses the yield curve slope as a primary input. Several parts of the...
Read MoreFace The Facts
I recently read a disheartening but accurate assessment of how the combination of continued historically low interest rates plus future obligations creates a dangerous alchemy of reaching for yield. The paper is authored by Danielle...
Read MoreAdvice of the Day
I come across so much good content and sometimes the author puts it all together making my research that much easier. In this case Daniel Crosby has cobble together his Big List of Money Wisdom: The Joneses aren’t as rich or...
Read MoreTweet of the Day
@CheapInvesting Behavior > StrategyProcess > OutcomeDiscipline > KnowledgePrice > StorySimple > ComplexChecklists > MemoryAvoid Permanent Loss of Capital > Minimize volatility Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient!...
Read MoreWhy Stock Buybacks Are So Important
In the upcoming non-stop political season, we could see a showdown over stock buybacks by corporations, especially if Elizabeth Warren ascends to the top of the Democratic field. I believe some sort of action will be taken but doubt a...
Read MoreChart of the Day
As you can see in the chart below, most trading happens in the last and first half an hour of each trading day. Also, ~85% of each day’s activity has to do with indexes, quants and rules-based options strategies. Stay Tuned,...
Read MoreStat of the Day
Since 2009, the level of global nonfinancial companies rated as speculative, or junk, has surged by 58%, to the highest ever. Fully 40% are rated B1 or lower, the point that Moody’s considers “highly speculative,” as...
Read MoreThought of the Day
“The laws of probability, so true in general, so fallacious in particular.” ~Edward Gibbon Keep this succinct quote in mind when watch financial news media. If all we needed to do is look at history, I would not be typing...
Read MoreThe View From Fort McHenry
Happy 4th of July! Here is my annual post on the birth of our national anthem. Being a native of Baltimore I thought I would take this July 4th as an opportunity to again provide you with the background on our national anthem: The year...
Read MoreInvestors Want Municipal Bonds...
…But Issuance Is Rare Investors have poured a net $47 billion into municipal bond funds during the first six months of 2019. This a record for the first two quarters, according to Lipper data from Refinitiv. But this surge in...
Read MoreTrade Truce?
Who is keeping track? Is it 90%? or 85%? In December of 2018, it was ‘amazing and productive’ with 90% complete. In June of 2019, it was ‘excellent, right back on track’ with 90% complete. And you mean to tell...
Read MoreThought of the Day
Financial Literacy vs. Investment Suitability: Which Matters More? “In Australia they have a robust, mandatory savings program. Guess which country, after Switzerland, has the highest per capita household wealth?” You got...
Read MoreChart of the Day
Most investors in the US state the main reason for placing ~80% of their stock exposure in the US is because US companies have a high % of foreign revenue exposure. Not So Fast My Friends: Out of 23 developed countries guess where the...
Read MoreSustainability Stories
A new paper found that realistically electric scooter fleets are hardly carbon-free, given the cost of manufacturing all those scooters with mediocre durability, as well as the cost of paying people to drive around to collect them and...
Read MoreThought of the Day
“Equities and Bonds roles have been reversed. People buy stocks for income (since bond yields are so low and going lower as the economy and inflation slows globally) and bonds for capital appreciation (why else would you buy...
Read MoreAdvice: Peter Lynch
In 1997, Peter Lynch wrote a great article entitled, Use Your Edge. I’ve posted an excerpt of it below.: So, what advice would I give to someone with $1 million to invest? The same I’d give to any investor: Find your edge...
Read MoreStat of the Day
The world’s largest economies by 2030: China India United States Japan Indonesia Russia Germany Brazil Mexico United Kingdom Just keep this in mind when building a globally diversified stock portfolio. Stay Tuned, Disciplined &...
Read MoreSustainability Stories
I wanted to start a new series on the ESG front. As a refresher ESG stands for: Environmental, Sustainable and Governance. I have often mentioned initiatives/projects that I have found interesting or may be investable, but I want to...
Read MoreChart & Question of the Day
Here is one of the biggest drawbacks to Alternative strategies. As you can see below after a 10 year bull market nothing will compare to pure stock market exposure. My Question(s) of the Day is, where to now and how do you want your...
Read MoreWhat Are You Trying To Say
In my Chart of the Day and with some stock markets near all-time highs, I just wanted to present a bit of history – post FOMC meetings. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
Read MoreA Red AND Blue Issue
Note: This blog is not political, just stating facts according to the US Treasury Department. The national debt increased +86% during George W. Bush’s 8 years as president, reaching $10.63 trillion as of 1/20/09. The national...
Read MoreChart of the Day
There is currently ~$13 TRILLION in global bonds that trade at a negative yield. This is really not that healthy and a sign of deflation and lower interest rates. Courtesy of Hedgeye Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...
Read MoreWhen Predicting...
…Predict Often …Don’t Provide a Timeline …Or Don’t In the 12/31/17 issue of USA Today, writer Adam Shell wrote of “18 stocks to Consider for 2018: All of the 18 names are seen rising +25% or more,...
Read MoreWill The Fed Be Dovish Enough
Sentiment has changed dramatically from one month ago. FED RATE CUT PROBABILITY On May 19th, 2019: June meeting: 9% July meeting: 22% Sept meeting: 47% Oct meeting: 56% Dec meeting: 73% On June 19th, 2019: June meeting: 23% July...
Read MoreUseless Chart of the Day
If you turn on CNBC today or tomorrow, you will see plenty of useless charts and data. If you see this cool looking chart it is best to turn the channel, hit mute, etc. if you have not already done that. Here’s every event since...
Read MoreMarket Morsels
1,777 Americans filed with the Federal Election Commission to run for president in 2016, a requirement for candidates who raise or spend at least $5,000 of contributions and expenditures. 45% of the world’s population (3.4...
Read MoreMarket Morsels
The US bond market (including treasury, municipal, corporate, mortgage and asset-backed debt) was worth $43.1 trillion as of 3/31/19. Treasury debt ($15.9 trillion) makes up the largest piece of the US bond market, according to the...
Read MoreVisual of the Day
This interesting diagram from Visual Capitalist breaks down all U.S. energy use by both source and industry, and everything that happens in between. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S +...
Read MoreMarket Morsels
Mount Everest in Nepal is making history this climbing season having issued 381 permits–the highest number ever. Anyone who pays the $11,000 cost is eligible for a permit to climb Mount Everest in Nepal. Additional costs of...
Read MoreCoffee Margins & Migration Trends
Coffee as a commodity is inherently volatile, but the past ten years have been particularly bad for coffee farmers. Right now according to a recent article by Kevin Seiff in The Washington Post, coffee sells at $0.89 per pound, which...
Read MoreMarket Morsels
According to IAB (Internet Advertising Bureau) and PwC (Pricewaterhousecoopers), internet advertising revenues in the U.S. hit $107.5 billion last year, the first time the figure made it past $100 billion. Over 3,500 mergers were...
Read MoreMarket Morsels
MONEY – The top 10% of taxpayers received 47% of the $10.2 trillion of adjusted gross income (AGI) earned nationwide in tax year 2016. The bottom 90% of taxpayers received the other 53% of AGI (source: IRS). SUBJECT TO A TARIFF?...
Read More...Even If Historically Rare
Based on my earlier entry on BlackRock’s Capital Market Assumptions of forward 10 year returns for US Stocks and Bonds, I thought it very interesting that these low level of returns rarely happen. When measured over rolling 10...
Read MorePrepare For Low Returns...
BlackRock recently put out a research piece outlining their Capital Markets Assumptions for the next 10 years. They are underwhelming but appropriate based on current valuation levels and interest rates. They predict US Stocks will...
Read MoreUp & To The Right...
…Is Not Always A Good Thing Non-Financial companies continue to pile on debt. This level is approaching $6.5 trillion. What happens when credit spreads widen and new bond issuance slows as the economy and profits slow? A...
Read MoreOperation Overlord
D-Day. June 6, 1944. The Eyes of the World Are Upon You By The Numbers 7,000 Ships 132,000 Men on the Beaches 23,000 Airborne Troops Dropped Behind Enemy Lines 12,000 Allied Aircraft 10,000 Allied Vehicles 4,414 Allied Troops Confirmed...
Read MoreThe Definition of Correlation
In a picture at least! In my Chart of the Day, you can see the absolute positive, meaningful correlation to the expansion of Global Central Bank Balance Sheets to the recovery and expansion of the S&P 500. As I have said many times...
Read MoreChart of the Day
In what is no surprise, especially since every part of the yield curve – except the 30 Year US Treasury bond – is trading BELOW the Fed Fund Rate, we should expect to see the Fed cuts rates. As the Chart of the Day,...
Read MoreDid You Know?
There is a lot to digest in the Chart of the Day, so here is a synopsis: Market-cap weighted benchmarks like MSCI World UNDERPERFORM equal & GDP weighted country allocation. Investors who balanced all countries to the same weight...
Read MoreAvailability Bias
From the @OurWorldInData, a chart that should be printed, cut out, and taped to every computer monitor and TV screen in the world: Causes of Death What People Search on Google What the Media Covers Annie Duke on Availability Bias: Take...
Read MoreBond Market Returns
In my Chart of the Day, I provide you evidence that the bond market is anticipating lower rates. Long-term corporate bonds are the best performer, returning more than the MSCI AWCI Index, which measures global stocks. Stay Tuned,...
Read MoreDid You Know?
May 29th is College Savings Plan Day. This is a day to recognize the tax-advantaged account that allows families to save for their children’s educational expenses. That plan is called the 529 Plan. As in 5/29! Stay Tuned,...
Read MoreChart of the Day
States ADD to string of tax revenue gains, per Pew. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be...
Read MoreMemorial Day
On what is now a tradition on my blog, Memorial Day is a time to reflect on the brave men and women who sacrificed the ultimate gift – life – to protect our freedoms. This is the story of Travis Manion and Brendan Looney....
Read MoreChart of the Day
BAA (Junk Bond Proxy) vs. 10-Year Spread Jon Krinsky, Managing Director and Chief Market Technician at Baycrest Partners, looks at a few of the technical red flags that exist for the US stock market as we head into the summer. The BAA...
Read MoreChart of the Day
Awesome Infographic from the folks at Visual Capitalist on a brief history of US Trade Wars: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember...
Read MoreChart of the Day
Our economy finds a way to consume – even at a slower rate as I am predicting. As you can see in the chart below US importers have been finding alternatives to China since the end of last year. So who feels the effects of a...
Read MoreChina's Rebuttal
Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) warns of ‘global economic uncertainties brought by trade frictions with the United States.’ “We are preparing for a protracted trade war with the United States.” ~President Xi...
Read MoreInternational Conundrum
When you study asset allocation and diversification there is always a sleeve for International stocks as they historically diversified a portfolio of only US stocks and improved overall returns. Well that what the text books say! It is...
Read MoreQuestion of the Day
The amount of bonds with a negative yield is higher than $10 trillion, according to Bloomberg. This means that by the end of 2019, almost 20% of the Global Government Bond Index will have negative rates. Who buys these bonds and why?...
Read MoreBeware of Mean Reversion
Otherwise know as Alligator Jaws! I don’t know when, but it will happen! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past...
Read MoreSouring Auto Loans
Serious auto-loan delinquencies – 90 days or more past due – jumped to 4.69% of outstanding auto loans and leases in the first quarter of 2019, according to New York Fed data. This put the auto-loan delinquency rate at the...
Read MoreChart & Thought of the Day
“Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.” ~Warren Buffett We are currently at 68%! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT...
Read MoreChart of the Day
The below chart is from Daniel Crosby that does a phenomenal job of outlining the historical occurrences of market moves lower. You need to prepare yourself mentally for at least one 10% plus correction each year. Therefore when it...
Read MoreTrade Tantrum
Yes we have seen a pullback in stocks over the past two weeks on fear of an escalating trade war. In reality, we have seen broad weakness in Far East stock markets prior to headlines and non-confirming moves in commodities such as...
Read MoreHappy Mother's Day
“Sometimes the strength of motherhood is greater than natural laws.” ~Barbara Kingsolver By the time you move out of your parents’ home, you’ve already spent 93% of the time that you will ever spend with them....
Read MoreChart of the Day
With the much anticipated IPO of UBER (UBER), I thought I would provide you with a word chart of caution: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
Read MoreBerkshire Hathaway - II
Last weekend was the annual pilgrimage for value investors to Omaha, NE from the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. I am going to have a series of entries recapping the salient points from the six hour sit down interview with Warren...
Read MoreBerkshire Hathaway - I
Last weekend was the annual pilgrimage for value investors to Omaha, NE from the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. I am going to have a series of entries recapping the salient points from the six hour sit down interview with Warren...
Read MoreSummer Is Coming
And you know what that means for folks from Maryland? Steamed Blue Crabs! Great news from the Chesapeake as the population of crabs has rebounded from a rough streak to the highest levels in seven years. The 2019 count of spawning-age...
Read MoreWhy The Rich Don’t Get Audited
The IRS is completely outgunned by the ultra-rich, according to a piece in the Sunday New York Times. One study of income hidden from the IRS found that it’s the richest who hide it the most effectively: the top 0.5 percent of...
Read MoreCharts of the Day
While this is not close to the earnings losses of IPO’s, ~35% of the Russell 2000 companies are not profitable. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
Read MoreReturn Quilt of the Month
Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments...
Read MoreGood "Behavioral" Investors
Daniel Crosby put together an initial list to distill the fundamental building blocks of what makes good investor behavior: Accept Responsibility Embrace Pain Develop Patience Welcome Uncertainty Relish Simplicity Measure with Purpose...
Read MoreChart of the Day
As you can see below current Fed Chairman Powell may want to dial back the rhetoric, press conferences, dot plots, etc. I can’t imagine his boss President Trump is too happy with lower prices and higher volatility! Stay Tuned,...
Read MoreThought of the Day
Morgan Housel Undervalued: An asset you just bought. Overvalued: And asset you wish you bought. Bubble: An asset with performance so great that jealously/curiosity causes you to investigate who owns it which makes you realize how many...
Read MoreTrillion Dollar Curse?
Barron’s had an interesting note this weekend on companies that hit the proverbial trillion dollar market cap. Microsoft was the latest company to eclipse this exclusive hurdle, only to fade in the afternoon to close at a measly...
Read MorePaper or Plastic - II
12 Minutes Estimated time of use for a single-use plastic bag, compared with the 500 to 1,000 years it takes for that bag to break down. Meanwhile, nearly 100 municipalities had straight-up banned such bags as of last March. Stay Tuned...
Read MorePaper of Plastic
New York recently became the second state to ban plastic bags, joining more than 240 cities and counties that have banned or put a tax on bags since 2007. The issue is that taxing bag use may be a more effective use of resources than...
Read MoreRhetorical Question of the Day
In the Chart of the Day we outline tax revenue that each OECD country collects as a percentage of its GDP. I guess I shouldn’t complain about the crumbling infrastructure or giant slalom roads here in the Garden State. Stay Tuned...
Read MoreNow That Is A Commitment
California is giving 100% a go! The governor signed a new bill to get CA to use 100% clean energy by 2045. This means that all electricity used by the state needs to come from things like wind and solar power. This new bill is...
Read MoreMap of the Day - II
After my entry yesterday on the salary needed to buy a home in the largest metropolitan areas in the US, I wanted to share with you the Cheapest and most Expensive areas, according to HSH.com. The Cheapest Metro Area Pittsburgh, PA...
Read MoreMap of the Day
This is a great representation from Visual Capitalist on how much salary is needed to buy a home in 50 US metro areas: As a reference point, the median home price in the US is ~$257,000, according to the National Association of...
Read MoreEarnings Recession
As you can see in my Chart of the Day, consensus forecasts now point to a 0.4% drop in earnings per share for the second quarter. That follows estimates of a 4.6% decline in the first quarter which would earn the label of an earnings...
Read MoreMagazine Cover Jinx
Two weeks ago it was Barron’s with their ‘Is This Bull Unstoppable‘ cover. This week it is Bloomberg BusinessWeek: If you recall BusinessWeek nailed a low in equities in 1979 with its now infamous cover entitled...
Read MoreHow Are You Incorporating ESG?
According to a recent study from Allianz Global, 71% of investors aim to manage all of their portfolios in an ESG-conscious way by 2030. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
Read MoreTrump Begging For Stimulus
According to President Trump, “if the Fed had done its job properly” the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) would have been up an additional 5,000-10,000 points and GDP would be plus +4%. Maybe so, but the domestic equity...
Read More$1.8 Billion
While Goldman Sachs and many other financial services companies are reporting earnings beats (read: on a year-over-year basis earnings are lower, but Wall Street analysts have very low estimates so we “beat” quarterly...
Read More