Tuesday, July 16, 2019
I couldn’t resist and this is not political. SentimentTrader sent this chart out earlier this morning and I couldn’t resist in posting it. There seems to be a high correlation to President Trumps tweets about...
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Monday, July 15, 2019
Based on the Chart of the Day, the risk of a recession has risen considerably according to the New York Federal Reserve Bank Recession Probability Indicator. This uses the yield curve slope as a primary input. Several parts of the...
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Saturday, July 13, 2019
I come across so much good content and sometimes the author puts it all together making my research that much easier. In this case Daniel Crosby has cobble together his Big List of Money Wisdom: The Joneses aren’t as rich or...
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Tuesday, July 9, 2019
As you can see in the chart below, most trading happens in the last and first half an hour of each trading day. Also, ~85% of each day’s activity has to do with indexes, quants and rules-based options strategies. Stay Tuned,...
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Friday, July 5, 2019
“The laws of probability, so true in general, so fallacious in particular.” ~Edward Gibbon Keep this succinct quote in mind when watch financial news media. If all we needed to do is look at history, I would not be typing...
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Thursday, July 4, 2019
Happy 4th of July! Here is my annual post on the birth of our national anthem. Being a native of Baltimore I thought I would take this July 4th as an opportunity to again provide you with the background on our national anthem: The year...
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Tuesday, July 2, 2019
Who is keeping track? Is it 90%? or 85%? In December of 2018, it was ‘amazing and productive’ with 90% complete. In June of 2019, it was ‘excellent, right back on track’ with 90% complete. And you mean to tell...
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Wednesday, June 26, 2019
The world’s largest economies by 2030: China India United States Japan Indonesia Russia Germany Brazil Mexico United Kingdom Just keep this in mind when building a globally diversified stock portfolio. Stay Tuned, Disciplined &...
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Tuesday, June 25, 2019
I wanted to start a new series on the ESG front. As a refresher ESG stands for: Environmental, Sustainable and Governance. I have often mentioned initiatives/projects that I have found interesting or may be investable, but I want to...
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Monday, June 24, 2019
Here is one of the biggest drawbacks to Alternative strategies. As you can see below after a 10 year bull market nothing will compare to pure stock market exposure. My Question(s) of the Day is, where to now and how do you want your...
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Sunday, June 23, 2019
In my Chart of the Day and with some stock markets near all-time highs, I just wanted to present a bit of history – post FOMC meetings. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
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Saturday, June 22, 2019
Note: This blog is not political, just stating facts according to the US Treasury Department. The national debt increased +86% during George W. Bush’s 8 years as president, reaching $10.63 trillion as of 1/20/09. The national...
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Friday, June 21, 2019
There is currently ~$13 TRILLION in global bonds that trade at a negative yield. This is really not that healthy and a sign of deflation and lower interest rates. Courtesy of Hedgeye Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...
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Thursday, June 20, 2019
…Predict Often …Don’t Provide a Timeline …Or Don’t In the 12/31/17 issue of USA Today, writer Adam Shell wrote of “18 stocks to Consider for 2018: All of the 18 names are seen rising +25% or more,...
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Wednesday, June 19, 2019
Sentiment has changed dramatically from one month ago. FED RATE CUT PROBABILITY On May 19th, 2019: June meeting: 9% July meeting: 22% Sept meeting: 47% Oct meeting: 56% Dec meeting: 73% On June 19th, 2019: June meeting: 23% July...
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Tuesday, June 18, 2019
If you turn on CNBC today or tomorrow, you will see plenty of useless charts and data. If you see this cool looking chart it is best to turn the channel, hit mute, etc. if you have not already done that. Here’s every event since...
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Monday, June 17, 2019
1,777 Americans filed with the Federal Election Commission to run for president in 2016, a requirement for candidates who raise or spend at least $5,000 of contributions and expenditures. 45% of the world’s population (3.4...
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Sunday, June 16, 2019
The US bond market (including treasury, municipal, corporate, mortgage and asset-backed debt) was worth $43.1 trillion as of 3/31/19. Treasury debt ($15.9 trillion) makes up the largest piece of the US bond market, according to the...
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Saturday, June 15, 2019
This interesting diagram from Visual Capitalist breaks down all U.S. energy use by both source and industry, and everything that happens in between. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S +...
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Friday, June 14, 2019
Mount Everest in Nepal is making history this climbing season having issued 381 permits–the highest number ever. Anyone who pays the $11,000 cost is eligible for a permit to climb Mount Everest in Nepal. Additional costs of...
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Thursday, June 13, 2019
Coffee as a commodity is inherently volatile, but the past ten years have been particularly bad for coffee farmers. Right now according to a recent article by Kevin Seiff in The Washington Post, coffee sells at $0.89 per pound, which...
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Wednesday, June 12, 2019
According to IAB (Internet Advertising Bureau) and PwC (Pricewaterhousecoopers), internet advertising revenues in the U.S. hit $107.5 billion last year, the first time the figure made it past $100 billion. Over 3,500 mergers were...
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Tuesday, June 11, 2019
MONEY – The top 10% of taxpayers received 47% of the $10.2 trillion of adjusted gross income (AGI) earned nationwide in tax year 2016. The bottom 90% of taxpayers received the other 53% of AGI (source: IRS). SUBJECT TO A TARIFF?...
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Sunday, June 9, 2019
Based on my earlier entry on BlackRock’s Capital Market Assumptions of forward 10 year returns for US Stocks and Bonds, I thought it very interesting that these low level of returns rarely happen. When measured over rolling 10...
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Saturday, June 8, 2019
BlackRock recently put out a research piece outlining their Capital Markets Assumptions for the next 10 years. They are underwhelming but appropriate based on current valuation levels and interest rates. They predict US Stocks will...
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Friday, June 7, 2019
…Is Not Always A Good Thing Non-Financial companies continue to pile on debt. This level is approaching $6.5 trillion. What happens when credit spreads widen and new bond issuance slows as the economy and profits slow? A...
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Thursday, June 6, 2019
D-Day. June 6, 1944. The Eyes of the World Are Upon You By The Numbers 7,000 Ships 132,000 Men on the Beaches 23,000 Airborne Troops Dropped Behind Enemy Lines 12,000 Allied Aircraft 10,000 Allied Vehicles 4,414 Allied Troops Confirmed...
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Wednesday, June 5, 2019
In a picture at least! In my Chart of the Day, you can see the absolute positive, meaningful correlation to the expansion of Global Central Bank Balance Sheets to the recovery and expansion of the S&P 500. As I have said many times...
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Tuesday, June 4, 2019
In what is no surprise, especially since every part of the yield curve – except the 30 Year US Treasury bond – is trading BELOW the Fed Fund Rate, we should expect to see the Fed cuts rates. As the Chart of the Day,...
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Monday, June 3, 2019
There is a lot to digest in the Chart of the Day, so here is a synopsis: Market-cap weighted benchmarks like MSCI World UNDERPERFORM equal & GDP weighted country allocation. Investors who balanced all countries to the same weight...
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Sunday, June 2, 2019
From the @OurWorldInData, a chart that should be printed, cut out, and taped to every computer monitor and TV screen in the world: Causes of Death What People Search on Google What the Media Covers Annie Duke on Availability Bias: Take...
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Friday, May 31, 2019
In my Chart of the Day, I provide you evidence that the bond market is anticipating lower rates. Long-term corporate bonds are the best performer, returning more than the MSCI AWCI Index, which measures global stocks. Stay Tuned,...
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Wednesday, May 29, 2019
May 29th is College Savings Plan Day. This is a day to recognize the tax-advantaged account that allows families to save for their children’s educational expenses. That plan is called the 529 Plan. As in 5/29! Stay Tuned,...
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Tuesday, May 28, 2019
States ADD to string of tax revenue gains, per Pew. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be...
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Monday, May 27, 2019
On what is now a tradition on my blog, Memorial Day is a time to reflect on the brave men and women who sacrificed the ultimate gift – life – to protect our freedoms. This is the story of Travis Manion and Brendan Looney....
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Sunday, May 26, 2019
BAA (Junk Bond Proxy) vs. 10-Year Spread Jon Krinsky, Managing Director and Chief Market Technician at Baycrest Partners, looks at a few of the technical red flags that exist for the US stock market as we head into the summer. The BAA...
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Friday, May 24, 2019
Awesome Infographic from the folks at Visual Capitalist on a brief history of US Trade Wars: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember...
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Thursday, May 23, 2019
Our economy finds a way to consume – even at a slower rate as I am predicting. As you can see in the chart below US importers have been finding alternatives to China since the end of last year. So who feels the effects of a...
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Wednesday, May 22, 2019
Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) warns of ‘global economic uncertainties brought by trade frictions with the United States.’ “We are preparing for a protracted trade war with the United States.” ~President Xi...
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Tuesday, May 21, 2019
When you study asset allocation and diversification there is always a sleeve for International stocks as they historically diversified a portfolio of only US stocks and improved overall returns. Well that what the text books say! It is...
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Monday, May 20, 2019
The amount of bonds with a negative yield is higher than $10 trillion, according to Bloomberg. This means that by the end of 2019, almost 20% of the Global Government Bond Index will have negative rates. Who buys these bonds and why?...
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Saturday, May 18, 2019
Otherwise know as Alligator Jaws! I don’t know when, but it will happen! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past...
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Friday, May 17, 2019
Serious auto-loan delinquencies – 90 days or more past due – jumped to 4.69% of outstanding auto loans and leases in the first quarter of 2019, according to New York Fed data. This put the auto-loan delinquency rate at the...
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Thursday, May 16, 2019
“Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.” ~Warren Buffett We are currently at 68%! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT...
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Wednesday, May 15, 2019
The below chart is from Daniel Crosby that does a phenomenal job of outlining the historical occurrences of market moves lower. You need to prepare yourself mentally for at least one 10% plus correction each year. Therefore when it...
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Tuesday, May 14, 2019
Yes we have seen a pullback in stocks over the past two weeks on fear of an escalating trade war. In reality, we have seen broad weakness in Far East stock markets prior to headlines and non-confirming moves in commodities such as...
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Sunday, May 12, 2019
“Sometimes the strength of motherhood is greater than natural laws.” ~Barbara Kingsolver By the time you move out of your parents’ home, you’ve already spent 93% of the time that you will ever spend with them....
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Friday, May 10, 2019
With the much anticipated IPO of UBER (UBER), I thought I would provide you with a word chart of caution: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
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Wednesday, May 8, 2019
Last weekend was the annual pilgrimage for value investors to Omaha, NE from the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. I am going to have a series of entries recapping the salient points from the six hour sit down interview with Warren...
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Tuesday, May 7, 2019
Last weekend was the annual pilgrimage for value investors to Omaha, NE from the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. I am going to have a series of entries recapping the salient points from the six hour sit down interview with Warren...
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Monday, May 6, 2019
And you know what that means for folks from Maryland? Steamed Blue Crabs! Great news from the Chesapeake as the population of crabs has rebounded from a rough streak to the highest levels in seven years. The 2019 count of spawning-age...
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Sunday, May 5, 2019
The IRS is completely outgunned by the ultra-rich, according to a piece in the Sunday New York Times. One study of income hidden from the IRS found that it’s the richest who hide it the most effectively: the top 0.5 percent of...
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Saturday, May 4, 2019
While this is not close to the earnings losses of IPO’s, ~35% of the Russell 2000 companies are not profitable. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
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Friday, May 3, 2019
Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments...
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Thursday, May 2, 2019
Daniel Crosby put together an initial list to distill the fundamental building blocks of what makes good investor behavior: Accept Responsibility Embrace Pain Develop Patience Welcome Uncertainty Relish Simplicity Measure with Purpose...
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Wednesday, May 1, 2019
As you can see below current Fed Chairman Powell may want to dial back the rhetoric, press conferences, dot plots, etc. I can’t imagine his boss President Trump is too happy with lower prices and higher volatility! Stay Tuned,...
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Tuesday, April 30, 2019
Morgan Housel Undervalued: An asset you just bought. Overvalued: And asset you wish you bought. Bubble: An asset with performance so great that jealously/curiosity causes you to investigate who owns it which makes you realize how many...
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Monday, April 29, 2019
Barron’s had an interesting note this weekend on companies that hit the proverbial trillion dollar market cap. Microsoft was the latest company to eclipse this exclusive hurdle, only to fade in the afternoon to close at a measly...
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Sunday, April 28, 2019
12 Minutes Estimated time of use for a single-use plastic bag, compared with the 500 to 1,000 years it takes for that bag to break down. Meanwhile, nearly 100 municipalities had straight-up banned such bags as of last March. Stay Tuned...
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Saturday, April 27, 2019
New York recently became the second state to ban plastic bags, joining more than 240 cities and counties that have banned or put a tax on bags since 2007. The issue is that taxing bag use may be a more effective use of resources than...
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Friday, April 26, 2019
In the Chart of the Day we outline tax revenue that each OECD country collects as a percentage of its GDP. I guess I shouldn’t complain about the crumbling infrastructure or giant slalom roads here in the Garden State. Stay Tuned...
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Thursday, April 25, 2019
California is giving 100% a go! The governor signed a new bill to get CA to use 100% clean energy by 2045. This means that all electricity used by the state needs to come from things like wind and solar power. This new bill is...
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Wednesday, April 24, 2019
After my entry yesterday on the salary needed to buy a home in the largest metropolitan areas in the US, I wanted to share with you the Cheapest and most Expensive areas, according to HSH.com. The Cheapest Metro Area Pittsburgh, PA...
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Tuesday, April 23, 2019
This is a great representation from Visual Capitalist on how much salary is needed to buy a home in 50 US metro areas: As a reference point, the median home price in the US is ~$257,000, according to the National Association of...
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Sunday, April 21, 2019
As you can see in my Chart of the Day, consensus forecasts now point to a 0.4% drop in earnings per share for the second quarter. That follows estimates of a 4.6% decline in the first quarter which would earn the label of an earnings...
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Saturday, April 20, 2019
Two weeks ago it was Barron’s with their ‘Is This Bull Unstoppable‘ cover. This week it is Bloomberg BusinessWeek: If you recall BusinessWeek nailed a low in equities in 1979 with its now infamous cover entitled...
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Friday, April 19, 2019
According to a recent study from Allianz Global, 71% of investors aim to manage all of their portfolios in an ESG-conscious way by 2030. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
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Wednesday, April 17, 2019
According to President Trump, “if the Fed had done its job properly” the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) would have been up an additional 5,000-10,000 points and GDP would be plus +4%. Maybe so, but the domestic equity...
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Tuesday, April 16, 2019
While Goldman Sachs and many other financial services companies are reporting earnings beats (read: on a year-over-year basis earnings are lower, but Wall Street analysts have very low estimates so we “beat” quarterly...
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Monday, April 15, 2019
Here is a very good summary of what the tax law changes from late 2017 have meant to you, corporations and the government. And here is a reminder from the Stoic – Seneca in Moral Letters, 96.2: Nothing will ever happen to me that...
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Sunday, April 14, 2019
While I have mentioned this previously, the IPO market this year has seen its fair share of hot trends and high valuations. As an example, Zoom trades at 60 times sales. While the S&P 500 trades at 3 times sales. {This is not a...
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Saturday, April 13, 2019
For my Chart of the Day, the NPR podcast Planet Money spoke of the benefits and problems with the dollar stores. Four new dollar stores will open in the U.S. every single day of 2019. That’s a new dollar store every six hours....
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Thursday, April 11, 2019
No I am not talking about the fantastic infrastructure in the Garden State, but the amount of money the two largest tax preparation firms spent on lobbying last year. Intuit and H&R Block spent a combined $6.6 million last year in a...
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Wednesday, April 10, 2019
After my post on Herman Cain yesterday, I found yet another sponsored e-mail from Casey Research dated March 30th. The e-mail claimed: “It’s my sincere hope you and your family survive what’s coming. But only those...
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Tuesday, April 9, 2019
As rumors continue to swirl about a Herman Cain nomination to the Federal Reserve Board, the President Trump loyalist release this sponsored e-mail suggesting readers could turn “$1,000 into $800,000” using a certain...
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Monday, April 8, 2019
Lyft, Inc. (LYFT) only has to rise by around 52% to reach its IPO, day one pop and the price that Jim Cramer told his viewers said was a good entry. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S +...
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Sunday, April 7, 2019
No this is not multi-colored pasta. This is a graph showing Rate of Change for Consensus Earnings for 2018 (top) and historical Operating Earnings going back to 2011. In short, expect earning to slow throughout 2019. Stay Tuned,...
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Saturday, April 6, 2019
Howard Marks, CEO of Oaktree Capital Management: “It’s essential to note that rational and unemotional investors are very much in the minority.” How do you practice this life and financial keystone habit? Stay Tuned,...
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Friday, April 5, 2019
They anticipated the global economies were slowing! Not this does not automatically mean a recession, it simply means that on a Rate-of-Change, Year-over-Year basis GDP is slowing. This can be seen in my Chart of the Day outlining...
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Thursday, April 4, 2019
Demand for big rig trucks has tanked. In March, the order for 15,700 Class 8 trucks by North American freight carriers was 6.7% lower than February and 66% lower than the orders in March of 2018, according to preliminary estimates....
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Wednesday, April 3, 2019
In my Chart of the Day, junk bond bond yields are at their lowest levels since October of 2018. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease...
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Tuesday, April 2, 2019
The S&P 500 rallied more than 1.5% in March. The Russell 2000 (small caps) fell more than -2% in March. Over the past 20 years, this divergence only happened one other time: March 2000 Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...
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Sunday, March 31, 2019
Saudi Arabia for the first time revealed details to investors that show its national oil company is the world’s most profitable business, demonstrating that the cloistered kingdom is willing to undergo unprecedented scrutiny to...
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Saturday, March 30, 2019
According to Fidelity, the findings suggest there is an opportunity for those who are simply thinking about it to take the first step toward more mindful planning – a good starting point in establishing habits that can eventually...
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Friday, March 29, 2019
In most developed countries, massive investment in water infrastructure coincided with rapid urbanisation at the beginning of the 20th century. More than 100 years later, this infrastructure has reached the end of its life cycle and...
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Thursday, March 28, 2019
Ride-hailing company Lyft Inc. is leading a parade of Silicon Valley companies to Wall Street that display an unusual quality with parallels to companies going public in the dot-com era: lots of red ink. Stay Tuned, Disciplined &...
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Tuesday, March 26, 2019
This is Behavioral Finance 101. VItaliy Katsenelson explained the importance of being a Rational Investor this way: The stock market is not your friend. You want to approach it the same way the American president should approach a...
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Monday, March 25, 2019
CLEAN YOUR FRUITS: According to the Environmental Working Group’s annual analysis of US Department of Agriculture data, about 70% of fresh produce sold in the US has pesticide residues on it even after it is washed. RECORD HIGH...
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Sunday, March 24, 2019
Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments...
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Saturday, March 23, 2019
In my Chart of the Day, we compare US 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield to the S&P 500 Returns over a 3-Month period. As you can see the current level is an outlier and is quite unique. As Liz Ann Sonders pointed out, history shows neither...
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Friday, March 22, 2019
Regardless of valuation levels, periods of high unemployment (Unemployment Rate 7.2-10.8%) were followed by strong S&P 500 gains. Whereas full employment (Unemployment Rate 2.5-4.2%) combined with top-quintile valuations (Normalized...
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Thursday, March 21, 2019
$1.285 Billion In Ads March Madness is here and so are the mega numbers that accompany the tournament from both a rights fee and advertising perspective. When compared to the postseasons of other professional sports, March Madness...
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Wednesday, March 20, 2019
First it was German Banks. Now Japanese stocks. From Bloomberg: The benchmark Topix index has slumped about 30 percent over the three decades following the burst of Japan’s bubble economy in the 1990s. That stands in stark...
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Tuesday, March 19, 2019
What investing $100 at the IPO would be worth today: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be...
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Monday, March 18, 2019
With the revelations of the college bribery scandal hitting the tape last week, I thought I would share these staggering numbers: Some numbers on admittance, cost, and the importance of college: 61% of kids from families earning more...
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Sunday, March 17, 2019
Only 47.7% of stocks generated a life-time return that match one-moth US Treasury bills. Investing is hard, so when you start to think it is easy, watch out! Oh and Happy St. Patrick’s Day! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient!...
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Saturday, March 16, 2019
NOTE: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities mentioned. Just reporting data from Bloomberg: As it stands, Amazon is UPS’ largest customer, and it’s also FedEx’s fourth-largest customer, so the...
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Friday, March 15, 2019
Not only do they deliver to their vast customer base, but also to the environment. They will power 100% of their operations with renewable energy by the end of 2020. They are not stopping there as they think about offsetting the carbon...
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Thursday, March 14, 2019
After peaking prior to the Great Recession, the US home ownership rate has been surging. This has been fueled by household formation by Millennials. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S +...
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Wednesday, March 13, 2019
This is fascinating, but not necessarily in a good way. German banks as a whole have generated ZERO returns (actually slightly negative) over the last 30 years! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation...
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Tuesday, March 12, 2019
This story is maddening! The federal government spends a disproportionate amount of its budget for outside contractors in the final month of the fiscal year, as agencies rush to blow through cash before it’s too late. Among the...
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Sunday, March 10, 2019
The green thumb is making a comeback, with 6 million Americans taking up gardening in 2016, of whom 5 million were Millennials. It’s a $47 billion industry in the United States and the average gardening household spends $503 on...
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Saturday, March 9, 2019
The gold-standard of Iowa political polls released a new survey over the weekend, and Iowa Democrats remain most supportive of former vice president Joe Biden. Twenty-seven percent of likely Democratic caucus goers say Biden is their...
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Friday, March 8, 2019
Not really. However, the size of Berkshire Hathaway and the massive amount of money he has to allocate severely limits his investment opportunities. Again, CXO Advisory on this topic: This chart shows differences between Berkshire...
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Wednesday, March 6, 2019
The S&P 500 INTRA-DAY low came 10 years today. It hit 666.79 on March 6, 2009. That morning, the February Non-Farm Payroll printed a LOSS of 651,000 jobs, and December’s was revised to a 60-year high. Yet, it may stand as one of...
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Tuesday, March 5, 2019
The economic data we get out of China may not be the most accurate. However, China’s Premier Li Keqiang opened the National People’s Congress by pulling no punches: He announced the weakest growth targets in 30 years of 6-6...
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Monday, March 4, 2019
The research team at CXO dug deep into Berkshire Hathaway and found that the the stock has outperformed the S&P 500 with the same level of risk. The following chart relates annual Berkshire Hathaway stock return to same-year S&P 500...
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Sunday, March 3, 2019
After my entry on Berkshire Hathaway, I wanted to point out that even the best investors make mistakes. In fact, the best investors typically hit on 65% of their stock ideas. Anything above that over a full market cycle may be illegal!...
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Saturday, March 2, 2019
Your reading for the week! But just in case you are short on time, here are 10 highlights with more to come: Berkshire will no longer utilize Book Value as the firm’s major value lies in its operating businesses, not its...
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Friday, March 1, 2019
According to the research team at Water Asset Management The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) 2017 report card gave the country’s water and waste water systems a D. A large portion of the nation’s drinking water...
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Thursday, February 28, 2019
This is not an offer or endorsement, just an interesting product in case you are one of the many saddles with student loans. Enter CommonBond, an innovative service that allows you to trade in your original, expensive student loans for...
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Wednesday, February 27, 2019
Delinquent student loans hit $166 billion in the fourth quarter, but that rate underestimates the effective delinquency rate by about half, so we’re looking at something like $333 billion in student loan debt that has not been...
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Tuesday, February 26, 2019
A Global Economic Slowdown – in chart form – follow the trend: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past...
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Sunday, February 24, 2019
Which would you rather have your $10,000 grow to? $40,810 = 7.3% Annually => Emotions Held In Check $28,057 = 5.3% Annually => Driven By Emotions Exactly! But in order to make your initial $10,000 investment grow to $40,810, you...
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Saturday, February 23, 2019
“Every single line item in GDP slowed. So the data just slowed a lot faster than what even the most bearish firm on Wall Street predicted. So where could we be wrong? I think it’s possible we’re not bearish enough...
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Thursday, February 21, 2019
What will happen to the multi billion dollar car insurance industry as we begin to remove human error from the equation with driver less cars? A report forecasting the impact of automation estimated that there will be 23 million...
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Wednesday, February 20, 2019
Just ask Charlie Munger, the billionaire is Vice Chair of Berkshire Hathaway (Alert: Annual Letter Coming This Saturday!) and Warren Buffett’s partner: “At Berkshire Hathaway and the Daily Journal we’ve done better...
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Monday, February 18, 2019
John Kenneth Galbraith – Short History of Financial Euphoria “There can be few fields of human endeavor in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of the...
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Sunday, February 17, 2019
Here is an example: Paul Krugman (11/9/2016): “So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight.” NEVER HAPPENED! Paul Krugman (2/10/2019): “I think that there is a quite good chance that we...
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Saturday, February 16, 2019
I have been pounding this drum for some time, along with the adage of you get what you pay for. Here are highlights from a recent article from TEBI – an Australian News Service: Mostly those daily reports were about as useful for...
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Friday, February 15, 2019
Although it is just the first week of filings. Politico: “The average tax refund from the IRS dropped 8.4 percent in the first week of the 2019 filing season compared to the same period last year, according to agency statistics....
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Thursday, February 14, 2019
Central banks have bought the most gold since the end of the second world war with the commodity becoming an increasingly valuable hedge against growing global instability. This was the recent headline on BusinessInsider. I would make...
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Wednesday, February 13, 2019
While the Chinese economy has been slowing for the past 12 months, one must marvel at the speed and efficiency of their infrastructure build-out. This is also one reason to continue to monitor the development of the One Belt & Road...
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Tuesday, February 12, 2019
Below are two examples of the slowdown taking hold across major economies: U.K. ECONOMY FALTERS AHEAD OF BREXIT NYT’s Peter Goodman: “As Britain slides toward a tumultuous exit from the European bloc, cities on the...
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Monday, February 11, 2019
Of a government shutdown later this week. With a looming Feb. 15 deadline, talks to forestall another government shutdown reportedly “abruptly fell apart” over the weekend. According to Politico sources, the talks broke...
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Sunday, February 10, 2019
To say that equity markets are on a rollercoaster ride is an understatement. Analyzing 1,094 months of S&P 500 Index data (since January 1928), we find just 32 months in which the equity index experienced a loss worse than the December...
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Saturday, February 9, 2019
Christian Drake – Hedgeye Risk Management “The State of the (Global Macro) Union to start 2019 remains one of discrete (Global Economic Growth) Deceleration with an investing citizenry conditioned to the pervasive but vapid...
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Friday, February 8, 2019
The ICE Dollar Index jumped 4.4% last year, the most since 2015. And for multinationals that sell products overseas, that dollar strength (paired with the ongoing trade war) presents a major challenge, reports Bloomberg. Quantifying...
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Thursday, February 7, 2019
BP Board Supports Proposed Vote on Climate-Change Shareholder Resolution Following pressure from a coalition of more than 300 investors managing $32 trillion in assets, BP supports a vote on a resolution requiring disclosure of more...
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Wednesday, February 6, 2019
In my Chart of the Day, we get an idea of what it takes to be in the 1% club around the world. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember...
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Tuesday, February 5, 2019
Since I am a firm believer that Cash is an asset class and that you should have a separate account for emergency needs, you need to optimize the yield on these balances. Jason Zweig addressed this very issue in his recent Intelligent...
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Monday, February 4, 2019
As investor realize both the economy and profits are slowing on a year-over-year, rate-of-change basis: December – Worst Ever S&P 500 -8.8% MSCI EAFE -5.3% Russell 2000 -12.0% Emerging Markets -3.0% January – Best Since...
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Sunday, February 3, 2019
Not the game (unless you like two masterminds winning their 6th ring). Not the commercials (although the NFL 100 and Bud Light/Game of Thrones crossover were highlights). Not the halftime show (but this time lapse video of the...
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Saturday, February 2, 2019
So goes the year for U.S. Stocks Historically, positive January returns for US stocks bodes well for the rest of the year. Since 1926, when January has been positive the calendar-year return has averaged over +17% versus years when...
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Friday, February 1, 2019
The Wall Street Journal published the updated results of the Super Bowl predictor: Bullish investors who look at an unscientific but popular indicator will be rooting for the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday when they face the New England...
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Thursday, January 31, 2019
A 30-second ad spot during the Super Bowl is going for between $5.1 million and $5.3 million. That’s a massive 96 percent jump since 2008, when a 30-second spot went for $2.7 million. The real estate is just a fraction of the...
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Wednesday, January 30, 2019
As you can see from the Hedgeye chart below, economic growth is slowing all over the globe: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember...
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Tuesday, January 29, 2019
The Perfect Time To Use The Bathroom It’s inevitable that at some point during the Super Bowl broadcast you will probably want to pee. But with so much going on, choosing the perfect time can prove perilous. According to a new...
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Monday, January 28, 2019
“We’re not really ever positioning ourselves. We’re simply trying to do the smartest thing we can every day when we come to the office. And if there’s nothing smart to do, cash is the default option.”...
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Sunday, January 27, 2019
…To Suspend Economic Gravity? Not from a year-over-year rate-of-change basis. China’s growth rate was 6.6% in 2018, a 28-year low, according to a report in the Nikkei. In order to keep their foot on the gas, the Chinese...
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Saturday, January 26, 2019
This paragraph is from The Behavioral Investor by Dan Crosby is a must READ, must PRINT, must REMIND, must SHARE: “Think about the most meaningful thing you have ever done. I would wager that it took a measure of risk,...
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Friday, January 25, 2019
Continuing on my highlights from Damn Right: Behind The Scenes with Berkshire Hathaway Billionaire Charlie Munger: Develop a Mosaic by Gathering Information: “I think both Warren and I learn more from the great business magazines...
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Thursday, January 24, 2019
From Damn Right: Behind The Scenes with Berkshire Hathaway Billionaire Charlie Munger: First of all, you have to understand your own nature, said Munger. “Each person has to play the game given his own marginal utility...
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Wednesday, January 23, 2019
The total number of electric vehicles on global roads surpassed 3 million in 2018. This is a 50% increase over 2016, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). According to a recent report from Goldman Sachs, last week’s...
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Tuesday, January 22, 2019
The 2018 Periodic Table of Commodity Returns Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of...
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Monday, January 21, 2019
This is one of my favorite quotes and dovetails beautifully into The Investor & Character Equation: “The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of...
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Sunday, January 20, 2019
Want to know why the Fed never predicts a recession? To do so would accelerate the arrival of a recession. This would set off a chain reaction of events. Investors would sell stocks Markets would tumble Confidence would be shaken....
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Friday, January 18, 2019
The rally we have seen since Christmas Eve look to be a counter-trend rally. I would argue that we have rallied for the following reasons: Chinese Central Bank cuts reserve requirements ECB issues dovish comments Federal Reserve may...
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Thursday, January 17, 2019
I wanted to highlight a great research piece from CornerCap that highlights the fact that by the time we are in a recession stocks are typically within their bottoming process. Thus, the ‘recession call’ is not a signal to...
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Tuesday, January 15, 2019
Out of every ten parents of young-adult children (age 18 to 35), eight are providing them with some kind of financial support. This new Merrill Lynch-Age Wave survey reveals the full extent to which today’s Boomer-age parents...
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Sunday, January 13, 2019
In the Chart of the Day, we try to locate where we are in this market cycle? Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past...
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Saturday, January 12, 2019
“If you eat, invest, and think according to what the ‘news’ advocates, you’ll end nutritionally, financially, and morally bankrupt.” ~Naval Ravikant Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor &...
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Friday, January 11, 2019
The era of recycling may be coming to an end. OK – not really. The era of “easy, single-sort recycling” may be coming to an end. Twenty-five percent of the stuff we try to recycle is too contaminated, and heads...
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Thursday, January 10, 2019
These are the primary driver of cycles. One of the first things I do each morning is remind myself where are are in the cycle. As I have been saying we are seeing a slowdown in both economic growth as measured by GDP and inflation as...
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Wednesday, January 9, 2019
In my Chart of the Day, the Managed Futures space which is know for being non-correlated to stocks and bonds, did not work during the sell-off at the end of 2018. So much for “Crisis Alpha” generation: The Barclays CTA...
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Tuesday, January 8, 2019
While from a pure drawdown standpoint, 2018 was not even close to 2008. However, notice that diversification helped investors more in 2008 as five major asset classes were positive versus just one last year. Stay Tuned, Disciplined &...
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Monday, January 7, 2019
In my Chart of the Day, I wanted to show you one of the risk management signs I watch on a daily basis. It is the spread between the yields in Investment Grade Bonds vs. High Yield (Junk) Bonds. As this spread widens, the current...
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Sunday, January 6, 2019
LONG-TERM: The S&P 500 has gained an average of +9.8% per year (total return) over the last 50 years (i.e., 1969-2018). The index was down in 2018 but has been positive in 14 of the last 16 years. Over the long-term, the S&P 500 has...
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Saturday, January 5, 2019
More than meets the eye: The average stock in the large-cap Russell 1,000 index (large caps) fell 9.18% in 2018. 9% of stocks in the index gained more than 20% in 2018. 35% of stocks fell 20% or more. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient!...
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Friday, January 4, 2019
The best performing stocks of 2018: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future...
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Thursday, January 3, 2019
This is absolutely one of my favorite charts. It is now updated through 2018. In short, not much worked. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
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Wednesday, January 2, 2019
OK that was click bait, but there is a morsel of truth in the headline. 2018 was worse than the Great Depression in one area: 93% of all global assets finished the year in negative territory. This was the WORST year on record. This is...
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Tuesday, January 1, 2019
Here is a great list from Vala Afshar to start the new year: Don’t be impressed by: Money Job title Appearances Experience Affiliations Imitation Big words Be impressed by: Kindness Trustworthiness Unselfish generosity Humility...
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Monday, December 31, 2018
“Be at war with your vices, at peace with your neighbors, and let every new year find you a better man.” ~Benjamin Franklin Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
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Sunday, December 30, 2018
No offense to the rock/metal band of the 1990’s, but investors must get used to dealing not only with their emotions but also trading against the machines. According to the article in The Wall Street Journal: 85% of all trading...
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Saturday, December 29, 2018
“The human factor is always incalculable.” ~Agatha Christie This is why you need a process and the discipline to stick to the process, along with being apolitical and unemotional. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM}...
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Friday, December 28, 2018
It’s hard not to have notable stats with the massive spikes in volatility to both the upside and the downside, often intraday. There have been 8,662 trading days since August 1984 (the furthest back there is intraday trading...
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Thursday, December 27, 2018
Over the past 3 trading days, we’ve seen the S&P 500 lose -4.7% over two days, only to gain it all back, and then some, on the third day. Since the Depression ended, that’s only happened two other times: October 9-13, 2008...
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Wednesday, December 26, 2018
I guess the Santa Claus rally is back on track! Today ~5% rally erased the Christmas Eve sell-off and most of last weeks losses. Notice I said nothing about points. The absolute points gain or loss DOES NOT MATTER, the PERCENTAGE DOES!...
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Tuesday, December 25, 2018
To all of my readers who celebrate Christmas, I wish you a wonderful day filled with family and friends. To those who don’t celebrate Christmas, I wish you a day of rest and relaxation. To all of you, the markets will reopen...
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Monday, December 24, 2018
…Sleeping Point? Stock market Corrections (10% Loss from Recent Highs) and Bear Markets (20% Loss from Recent Highs) are typically the best and most painful way to actually find it! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...
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Sunday, December 23, 2018
Dear readers I would get used to this heading. Here’s the latest tally after last week: The S&P 500 lost 7 percent for the week and is now down 17.8 percent from its record. The Nasdaq lost 8.3 percent on the week and is now 22...
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Saturday, December 22, 2018
Question: “What keeps you awake at night?” Answer: “Nothing, I keep other people awake at night!” ~Former Secretary of Defense, Jim Mattis Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character...
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Friday, December 21, 2018
This is just a sample of how just about every asset class has fallen for in the 4th quarter, and this was before yesterday’s move lower: Energy = -22.3% Growth = -22.0% High Beta = -21.7% Small Cap = -20.2% Technology = -17.1%...
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Thursday, December 20, 2018
So far, there’s not much evidence of that based on a recent report from the Council of Foreign Relations. Much to the dismay of President Trump who proclaimed himself ‘Tariff Man.’ As the left-hand graphic below shows...
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Wednesday, December 19, 2018
Well I should have said Top Trend of the 4th Quarter of 2018. Interesting note: the Google search term “Bear Market” was typed more often in late 2018 than during the Global Financial Crisis! Stay Tuned, Disciplined &...
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Tuesday, December 18, 2018
While I know it doesn’t feel normal, the recent stock market sell-off is actually an annual occurrence. Except in 2017, we did not even get a 5% pullback. That is not normal? Yesterday, the S&P 500 hit a new year-to-date low. But...
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Monday, December 17, 2018
Not necessarily a good sign for the underlying health of the markets. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance...
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Sunday, December 16, 2018
“There are three words which are among the most important words in our business: I don’t know. And if you don’t know something…you should admit it—to yourself and to everybody around you. And I think...
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Saturday, December 15, 2018
“Investment success does not require glamour stocks or bull markets.” ~John Neff Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember...
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Friday, December 14, 2018
In the Chart of the Day, you can see that the average holding period for domestic public company stocks has fallen dramatically: 1976 = 60+ Months 2015 = 7.3 Months This is a win for exchanges, broker-dealers, Wall Street and...
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Thursday, December 13, 2018
With two kids just a few years away from college, this chart does not warm my heart. Maybe I should just buy them a TV and phone instead! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
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Wednesday, December 12, 2018
It should come as no surprise to regular readers that the risk of a recession is rising. Especially based on my thoughts on a slowdown in economic growth on a year-over-year basis. In the Chart of the Day, Ned David updates their...
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Tuesday, December 11, 2018
Here is your Chart of the Day: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results....
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Monday, December 10, 2018
We are nearing the one year anniversary of President Trumps tax cut package. From a cost/benefit analysis, it remains to be seen how effective these tax cuts are. One could argue that it extended the bull market in the US by several...
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Sunday, December 9, 2018
While mortgage rates have risen from bedrock levels, they are still well below historical rates. My first mortgage in the mid-1990’s was a 30-year fixed at 8.5%! Today, even with the rise in rates they are at 4.75%. Stay Tuned,...
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Saturday, December 8, 2018
As you can see from the chart appended below, October was truly a difficult one for investors. From a diversification standpoint, typically stocks and bonds don’t fall at the same time; however, this is not an iron-clad...
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Friday, December 7, 2018
Is competition disappearing? 2 corporations control 90% of the beer Americans drink 4 players control the entire U.S. beef market 5 banks control about half of the U.S.’s banking assets However, these are all highly regulated...
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Thursday, December 6, 2018
There is much consternation in stock markets about trade deals, tariffs, tweets, executive arrests, program trading, etc. No matter what the headlines scream at the end of the day when I measure and map economic growth and inflation,...
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Wednesday, December 5, 2018
Our thoughts are with the family of President George H.W. Bush, a man who dedicated his life to serving our country. Sully has the watch: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
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Tuesday, December 4, 2018
The “Tariff Man” or the yield curve inversion? President Trump on Tuesday issued his most market-moving tweet yet with this gem at 10:03 a.m.: “I am a Tariff Man. When people or countries come in to raid the great...
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Monday, December 3, 2018
Joel Greenblatt Unless you buy a stock at the exact bottom (which is next to impossible), you will be down at some point after you make every investment. Your success entirely depends on how dispassionate you are towards short term...
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Sunday, December 2, 2018
How is that for a new catch-phrase! I can’t take credit for it though. It was Danielle Lacalle. He penned an article asking: Are Central Bankers Nationalizing The Economy? Here are some key stats: The US Federal Reserve owns 12...
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Saturday, December 1, 2018
Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments...
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Friday, November 30, 2018
Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments...
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Thursday, November 29, 2018
We study a wide variety of correlations between various investments and other factors. Below I wanted to highlight an interesting chart that has a very high degree of correlation. In short, based on this historical analysis dating back...
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Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Last year at Thanksgiving, most were talking about Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. This year – not so much! Here is a stark reminder in a recent article from Reuters in regards to where you are getting your recommendations and how...
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Tuesday, November 27, 2018
With the upcoming G20 Summit this week, many financial pundits are looking for any reason for the market to rally into year end. Many have discussed the potential trade deal between Trump and Xi as a catalyst for the recent move higher...
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Monday, November 26, 2018
PIMCO put together this chart on how Risk Factors perform in various parts of the market cycle. As you can see below, over the full sample, US stocks beat both US corporate bonds and US Treasuries based on risk-adjusted returns....
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Sunday, November 25, 2018
Here is a history lesson on Apple, but this applies to most stocks as well. Over the last 15 years of holding stock in Apple (AAPL): 1 out of every 4 days you were in a 20% drawdown or more 61% of the time you were in a 5% drawdown or...
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Saturday, November 24, 2018
I couldn’t resist! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results....
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Thursday, November 22, 2018
Chart of the Day Here is what America Eats on Thanksgiving Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be...
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Tuesday, November 20, 2018
This time with Natural Gas price volatility. As you can see from the top bold line, historically natural gas prices are very volatile. You can see the small hockey stick up recently, but if you look back over nearly 25 years the recent...
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Monday, November 19, 2018
Joel Greenblatt “Unless you buy a stock at the exact bottom (which is next to impossible), you will be down at some point after you make every investment. Your success entirely depends on how DISPASSIONATE you are towards short...
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Sunday, November 18, 2018
While this article and the details below are a bit wonky, it supports the premise that the Fed may NOT need to raise rates next year. Especially into an economic and inflationary slowdown as I am predicting. From the CFR: Our...
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Saturday, November 17, 2018
And they are not good. One selling point all politicians go to is the passage of an Infrastructure bill. No thoughts or plan on how to raise the funds to fix our dilapidated system. Just that it will be a positive spending and stimulus...
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Friday, November 16, 2018
I just received my Bloomberg BusinessWeek 2019 Outlook edition and I had to share this note from 2012. The editors at Fortune issued the Golden 10 Companies in 2000. Well as you can see not much gold in them there hills with this group...
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Thursday, November 15, 2018
The staff at the FOMC recently added a question to its Survey of Senior Loan Officers last quarter: How would you respond to a ‘prolonged hypothetical moderate inversion of the yield curve’? With the yield spread shrinking...
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Wednesday, November 14, 2018
Daniel Crosby – The Behavioral Investor “Although the media talks about 10% and 20% market losses as though they are the end of the world, they arrive as regularly as spring flowers and have not negated the tendency of...
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Tuesday, November 13, 2018
Chart of the Day ATS stands for Automated Trading Services. This trend will not be changing so instead of complaining about it, we have tried to incorporate this fact it into our investment process. Control What You Can Control! Stay...
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Monday, November 12, 2018
I recently wrote about how 2017 marked a year in which stock market volatility was at historically low levels. As it turns out, the past five years can also be categorized as one with historically low levels of downside volatility....
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Sunday, November 11, 2018
This Veterans Day, all of us at Meyer Capital Group would like to thank all those who have served this country. Please join us in remembering the many sacrifices our men and women in uniform and their families make each day to protect...
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Saturday, November 10, 2018
So far in 2018, the S&P 500 stock index has been down -1% or more on 22 days. In 2017, stocks only had a -1% or more down day 4 days the whole year. 2016 had 22 days the S&P 500 stock index was down over -1%. 2015 had 32 days the S&P...
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Friday, November 9, 2018
Now this may be the best or worst story of the year: I have heard of PIK bonds which are Payment-In-Kind bonds. This means that instead of receiving interest payments as outlined, you receive more bonds in lieu of the interest payments...
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Thursday, November 8, 2018
Based on my rant about the issues an investor faces when consuming free financial media and turning off CNBC, this Hedgeye cartoon is spot on: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
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Wednesday, November 7, 2018
Just Kidding Based on my previous rant, the results of the mid-term elections have little, if any effect on the economy in the near-term. It makes for good fodder and fills the airwaves with political punditry. Ray Dalio who is one of...
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Tuesday, November 6, 2018
But first some thoughts: Politics and Investing DON’T MIX Be APOLITICAL In Your Investment Decisions And DISPASSIONATE And Develop and Stick to YOUR PROCESS If you find yourself reacting to tweets or headlines or stats (of which...
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Monday, November 5, 2018
Looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) daily standard deviation, October stands out as the most volatile month. From the 1920’s to 2018, average volatility was 1.12, compared with October’s average volatility of...
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Sunday, November 4, 2018
Yes October Was Bad… …Even For A Midterm Election Year Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may...
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Saturday, November 3, 2018
Upton Sinclair “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!” Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
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Friday, November 2, 2018
On the heels of my post about virtually no asset classes in the black year-to-date, I wanted to highlight the fact that basic balanced funds were hit hard. As you can see both stocks AND bonds were negative in October. Stay Tuned,...
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Thursday, November 1, 2018
As of the end of October, 89% of asset classes tracked by Deutsche Bank have a negative total return in $ terms. This is the highest percentage on record since 1901. Last year, just 1% finished with negative total return. Stay Tuned,...
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Wednesday, October 31, 2018
After October spooked markets and then had the best two day rally in months, leaving investors scratching their heads: “The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible.” ~Bernard Baruch Stay...
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Tuesday, October 30, 2018
Goldman Sachs put together this cool chart that outlines various election scenarios. However, regardless my view is the US economy and inflation are slowing on a year-over-year basis and no matter the outcome that will not change. Stay...
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Monday, October 29, 2018
…Peter Schiff He recently tweeted out this piece of non-sense on China’s Financial Nuclear option: Victory plan for #China: 1. Dump all U.S. Treasuries. 2. Use proceeds to buy gold. 3. Peg yuan to gold rather than dollar....
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Sunday, October 28, 2018
Total household debt hit a new record high, rising by $219 billion (1.6%) to $13.512 trillion in Q3 of 2018, according to the NY Fed’s latest household debt report, the biggest jump since 2016. It was also the 17th consecutive...
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Saturday, October 27, 2018
This falls squarely under the ‘Don’t We Every Learn’ category. Thousands line up for zero-down-payment, subprime mortgages | CNBC Borrowers can have low credit scores, but have to go through an education session about...
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Friday, October 26, 2018
Twitter – the platform not necessarily the stock – is a wonderful (but potentially toxic) platform if you follow (or not) informed sources with various viewpoints. Darius Dale has the Tweet of the Day this morning when...
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Thursday, October 25, 2018
On the heels of this continued volatility (not going away anytime soon), I want you to take a step back, take a deep breathe and start to learn about your true risk tolerance. You will likely be more fearful when your investments are...
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Wednesday, October 24, 2018
Market In Turmoil? How about Ratings In Turmoil! The median 3-month return following a CNBC special market report is +5.4% with 11 out of 12 positive. The sole loser was -0.2%. I am not saying that this is bullish indicator, just that...
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Monday, October 22, 2018
As I have discussed often the Federal Reserve balance sheet ballooned during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and rightfully so. They have been ‘slooooowly’ unwinding for a few years and then picked up the pace in 2018. As...
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Sunday, October 21, 2018
This article and the below call outs are not prudent financial planning: Almost 1 in 3 homeowners who earn less than $30,000 per year said it’s OK to tap into home equity to cover their everyday bills, more than triple those who...
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Saturday, October 20, 2018
Below is an update of the year-to-date peak to present pull back in various equity markets aroung the globe: -6% -7% -7% -7% -8% -9% -11% -11% -15% -16% -22% -31% -36% -47% Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor &...
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Friday, October 19, 2018
On this day in 1987 the Dow fell 22%! That was a drop of 508 points. It was front page news, including the volume of trades that day. Today the same 22% fall would drop the Dow – wait for it – by 5,500 points. Now try to...
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Thursday, October 18, 2018
According to S&P Global, 30 of 50 US states do not have sufficient reserves set aside today to absorb the financial impact of an economic recession, forcing them to raise taxes/fees or reduce benefits. Unfortunately, This Is A...
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Wednesday, October 17, 2018
I’ll take “Reasons To Not Live In The Northeast” for $1,000 Alex. Answer: What Is $713,706. Question: What does it take to be part of the 1% in New York City? Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor &...
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Tuesday, October 16, 2018
On the heels of my recent post on Corporate Debt to Cash Ratios, I wanted to provide an update on the European corporate debt markets, as well as an example of what this means for stock investors. In the below chart, you can see equity...
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Monday, October 15, 2018
AND No Softer Side of Sears! Is the worst kept secret in all of finance, Sears officially filed for bankruptcy this morning. Eddie Lampert was profiled in BusinessWeek on November of 2004 and stepped down from the Chairman and CEO role...
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Sunday, October 14, 2018
The cash-to-debt ratio of speculative-grade borrowers reached a record low of 12% in 2017, below the 14% level in 2008 — meaning that for every dollar they have in cash, they have $8 of debt. Corporations are borrowing against...
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Saturday, October 13, 2018
Appended below is a great visual representation of the makeup of global stock markets. It is also a great representation on Home Country Bias. How many of you have 48% of your stock holdings in Developed and Emerging Markets? Stay...
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Friday, October 12, 2018
While this post may be a bit wonky I wanted to provide actual facts instead of media spew. We often hear the phrase ‘cash on the sidelines’ or ‘investor buying power’ from those who want you to perpetually be...
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Thursday, October 11, 2018
This is what the headlines blared on Wednesday night post the move lower in every broad US stock index: This chart add NO Value to anything – other than providing me a topic to rant on! Points don’t matter. Percentages do....
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Wednesday, October 10, 2018
Make sure that when you need your bonds to be diversifiers, they are. As you can see from the Chart of the Day, many sub-sectors of bonds are highly correlated with stocks. I realize rising interest rates can cause investor...
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Tuesday, October 9, 2018
Cash as a % of Client Assets, Brokerage Accounts 2018: 10.3% 2017: 11.7% 2016: 14.1% 2015: 12.3% 2014: 13.5% 2013: 14.9% 2012: 18.2% 2011: 19.1% 2010: 24.3% 2009: 25.4% 2008: 12.5% 2007: 10.3% Sources: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg (2) The...
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Monday, October 8, 2018
Overall, there are 10,929 ratings on stocks in the S&P 500. According to Factset, of these 10,929 ratings: 52.6% are Buy ratings 41.7% are Hold ratings 5.7% are Sell ratings Yet on any given day ~45% of stocks go down in value. Please...
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Saturday, October 6, 2018
Small-cap stocks were the outperformers of the market during the first half of this year. For three months, the group of companies with market caps of less than $2 billion has underperformed large-cap stocks. As you can see in the...
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Friday, October 5, 2018
I thought I was done with this theme but then yesterday happened. We have just experienced the largest 2-day move in the volatility index (VIX) in over 5 years. $89 billion That’s how much the collective net worth of the...
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Thursday, October 4, 2018
As mentioned yesterday, one issue that may throw a spanner into the works is that fact that this year we will have midterm elections. Since 1950, the Dow Jones Industrial Average index averaged a 3.1% gain in midterm Octobers, with 12...
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Wednesday, October 3, 2018
Chart of the Day Remember, volatility can happen on the upside as well – stay tuned for tomorrow update for some brighter historical facts! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R...
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Tuesday, October 2, 2018
Yesterday I mentioned that the month of October can be volatile for stock investors. What would make me state that? Data! Crashes 1929 1987 Swoons 1978 1979 1989 Global Financial Crisis 2008 Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...
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Monday, October 1, 2018
This can be a spooky month for equity markets as volatility tends to rise, but history will show it may not be all bad. The 3 best gain days (by percentage) for the S&P 500 in the last 68 years (i.e., dating back to January 1950) all...
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Sunday, September 30, 2018
Return Quilt As Of 09/30/2018 Thanks BA for the quarterly update! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may...
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Saturday, September 29, 2018
Like I said yesterday, don’t trust the Fed’s Dot Plots. The market doesn’t! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember...
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Saturday, September 29, 2018
According to JP Morgan, repatriation usage is as follows: 49% Debt Redemptions 46% Stock Repurchases 5% CapEx These funds are fungible meaning that the CFO will use them at their discretion based on perceived internal rates of returns....
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Thursday, September 27, 2018
…Please Ignore Why? The Federal Reserve board record of estimating economic activity is – in one word – bad! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT...
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Wednesday, September 26, 2018
When Predicting, Predict Often Without A Timeframe Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative...
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Tuesday, September 25, 2018
Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments...
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Monday, September 24, 2018
This is one way to keep your stock market moving higher! In essence the size of the holdings at the Bank of Japan are roughly the size of their entire economy! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation...
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Sunday, September 23, 2018
Another look into divergences amongst global stock markets year-to-date. If you exclude the US, internationsl stock markets would be -1%. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
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Saturday, September 22, 2018
I couldn’t resist adding in the 3D printing investor hysteria as a comparison. Again, time has a way of correcting things! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT...
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Friday, September 21, 2018
On the heels of my blog yesterday regarding the meteoric rise of volatility levels and price levels of a select few cannibis stocks, it reminded me of the salad days of the Internet Bubble. It seemed that nearly every day in 1999,...
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Wednesday, September 19, 2018
In the Chart of the Day, I have been telling clients/prospects/friends/neighbors/anyone who will listen about the massive divergence in global stock market returns this year. After 2017 when it seemed ‘everything worked except...
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Tuesday, September 18, 2018
“Investors should always keep in mind that the most important metric is not the returns achieved but the returns weighed against the risks incurred. Ultimately, nothing should be more important to investors than the ability to...
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Monday, September 17, 2018
During the GOP sale of their tax bill, the repatriation of $4 trillion in overseas cash holdings was purported as a major advantage of lowering tax rates. A Wall Street Journal analysis of 108 companies with $2.7 trillion in profits...
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Saturday, September 15, 2018
A decade on from the financial crisis, it’s worth taking a second to kick the tires on the global banking system just to make sure it doesn’t go down like that again. And while there’s still more to be done, banks...
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Friday, September 14, 2018
No – my wife and I celebrated 21 years together earlier this month. The anniversary I am referencing is the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. Jason Zweig summed the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis as follows: Good things...
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Thursday, September 13, 2018
One very important item (maybe the most important) I left out of the analysis of making the iPhone domestically is PROFITS. That estimate also incorporated maintaining the same profit margins that Apple enjoys by manufacturing these...
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Wednesday, September 12, 2018
Question: How much would an iPhone cost if it all compenents were produced in the US and assembled here as well? Answer: ~$2,000 {This estimate includes the massive specialized technology supply chain movement. labor, parts, etc.} Yes...
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Tuesday, September 11, 2018
“September 11 impressed upon us that life is a precious gift… And I think we all have a duty to devote at least a small portion of our daily lives to ensuring that neither America nor the world ever forgets September 11...
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Monday, September 10, 2018
When asked about all of the reports recollecting what happened in the MIDDLE of the Global Financial Crisis, Keith McCullough of Hedgeye Risk Management has this to say: “I think it’s a great time in Macro to be a young...
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Sunday, September 9, 2018
Notice I said ‘Try’ as this take practice, just like any other process. Here are more thoughts from Ninad Kunder: Consider Political Bias, which originates out of our political ideology and clouds our reading of the...
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Saturday, September 8, 2018
To try and remove emotions from our investment process. Here is Ninad Kunder: It is amazing that rational people assume that leaders take rational decisions fully aware that they cater to our emotional responses. Our political mind is...
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Friday, September 7, 2018
Times Change. Businesses Change. Stocks Change. This Will Continue. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may...
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Thursday, September 6, 2018
With the President hinting at the potential for more tariffs this time on Japan, the full effects have yet to be seen. Cornerstone Macro, headed by Nancy Lazar, makes the point that second-order effects could be more significant than...
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Tuesday, September 4, 2018
Since 1950, no month sports a lower average return than September, with the S&P 500 Index down 0.47% on average. In the past 20 years, September has been the second-worst month, with only August fairing worse. More recently, over the...
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Monday, September 3, 2018
Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments...
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Sunday, September 2, 2018
“When you buy an asset and feel great about it, you are likely to lose money. When you buy an asset and feel a little sick to your stomach, you are likely to make a lot of money.” ~Mark Yusko Year-to-date, non-US stocks...
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Saturday, September 1, 2018
“When dealing with people, remember you are not dealing with creatures of logic, but creatures of emotion.” ~Dale Carnegie Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
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Friday, August 31, 2018
Leveraged Loans While Moody’s may not have do a good job at understanding the credit cycle pre Global Financial Crisis, this piece seems to ryhme with other cautious memos. What are they? The loans have become popular in recent...
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Wednesday, August 29, 2018
Just because an investment sounds good and exclusive doesn’t mean it will be. Some funds founded by Nathan Myhrvold, which raised ~$3 Billion to invest mostly in patents and new innovations, had NEGATIVE IRR of 15% to 24% in last...
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Monday, August 27, 2018
“Courage is not the absence of fear, but the capacity to act despite our fears.” ~John McCain (August 29, 1936 – August 25, 2018) Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S +...
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Sunday, August 26, 2018
As I alluded to last week, this historic bull market may be the longest in duration without a recession, but as you can see below it has not been the most robust in history. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor &...
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Saturday, August 25, 2018
Not according to the meeting minutes released this past week. And not according to history vs. Unemployment: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
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Friday, August 24, 2018
“Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy. Profit from folly rather than participate in it.” ~Warren Buffett Remember to proactively prepare your mind and your portfolio for volatility. When –...
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Wednesday, August 22, 2018
In duration without a recession – yes. The bull market turns 3,453 days old today, marking the longest period of uninterrupted gains and no recession in American history. In robustness – no. Nevertheless, here is a cool...
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Tuesday, August 21, 2018
With the S&P 500 hitting another new high intra-day, the chart below is a great reminder of why your focus should be on risk management and not capturing every tick higher. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor &...
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Monday, August 20, 2018
Despite the recent stock market gains (one of the longest bull markets in history), large public pension plans still face a funding shortfall of $4 trillion because their liabilities are so large, according to Moody’s Investors...
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Sunday, August 19, 2018
The #1 culprit is the rising US dollar this time. But weakness in this volatile asset class is not unusual – see below: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT...
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Saturday, August 18, 2018
“Nothing so undermines your financial judgment as the sight of your neighbor getting rich.” ~J.P. Morgan Focus on you and what you control – full stop! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character...
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Friday, August 17, 2018
“Being a singer is a natural gift. It means I am using to the highest degree the gift that God gave me to use. I am happy with that.” ~Aretha Franklin Investors need guidance answers Carl Richard’s Big Questions: How...
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Thursday, August 16, 2018
Outlined below is the Average CEO-to-Worker Compensation ratio for the 350 largest firms in the US 2017: 312-to-1 2000: 344-to-1 (PEAK) 1989: 58-to-1 1965: 20-to-1 Source: Economic Policy Institute Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient!...
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Wednesday, August 15, 2018
Global Divergences Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different...
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Tuesday, August 14, 2018
Both Google (GOOG) and Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) went public in the summer of 2004. Which one has outperformed? GOOG = +2,395% DPZ = +4,271% Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
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Monday, August 13, 2018
Tariffs Trade Trump Tesla Twitter Tiger {As in Tiger Woods} Tidal Wave {As in riding an 80-foot wave!} Turkey Welcome to a quiet summer of trading! Today we will focus on Turkey. Their currency – the Lira – has crashed over...
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Sunday, August 12, 2018
Again, not much to add… Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results....
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Saturday, August 11, 2018
Not much else to add… Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results....
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Friday, August 10, 2018
In making investments, I have always believed that you must act with discipline whenever you see something you truly like. To explain this philosophy, Buffett/Munger likes to use a baseball analogy that I find particularly illuminating...
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Thursday, August 9, 2018
I may get a bit wonky with today’s entry but there are many similarities to how Stoics modeled their behavior and how investors can work to optimize their underlying strategies. Stoicism is also where my Investor/Character...
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Wednesday, August 8, 2018
Need another reason to save for retirement? According to US Chamber of Commerce records, 12% of bankruptcy filings are by those age 65 or older. It may be late for some of you, but its never too late to start/improve the amount you are...
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Tuesday, August 7, 2018
For those of you who maintain seperate trading accounts and subscribe to an investment newsletter, this article from the August AAII Journal should be read. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation...
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Monday, August 6, 2018
Market History By Market Capitalization Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future...
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Sunday, August 5, 2018
“The most important investment ability is an emotional discipline.” ~William Bernstein Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease...
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Saturday, August 4, 2018
“Individuals who cannot master their emotions are ill-suited to profit from the investment process.” ~Benjamin Graham As I have stated over and over again on these pages, your brain is wired to survive by focusing on danger...
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Friday, August 3, 2018
Diversification is not meant to – and will not – eliminate downside risk. It is an attempt to add lower correlated assets to a portfolio of stocks to smooth returns over a full market cycle. In the chart below, you can see...
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Thursday, August 2, 2018
What was the first trillion dollar company by market capitalization? Apple? Nope. Petro China. November 5th, 2017. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...
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Wednesday, August 1, 2018
Before you get nervous, please remember that in order to optimize your investment decisions you must optimize your mind. Having an unemotional, apolitical process can help. While we are not forecasting a recession, our data is...
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Tuesday, July 31, 2018
Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have a combined market value greater than the GDP of France. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease...
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Monday, July 30, 2018
It was great, in fact it hit a two year cycle high. However, expect it to start to get “less good” in the coming quarters. As of now both growth and inflation are mapping higher on a year-over-year basis. Thus 2-year US...
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Sunday, July 29, 2018
I am sure few of you know but the United States Men’s National Lacrosse team prevailed in the World Championships earlier this month. As you can see from the chart below, we are holding up the best globally. Another intersting...
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Saturday, July 28, 2018
Nothing to see here – move along! This is a chart of Venture Capital (VC) deals. These are deals that you and I are not exposed to and typically revolve around start-ups. As you can see there is a staggering amount of money being...
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Friday, July 27, 2018
NOTE: This is not intended to be an investment recommendation, just information I found interesting relating to the topic of responsible investing! Personally and as a firm we are spending more time researching the ESG space. This...
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Thursday, July 26, 2018
If this is not a sign of an economic slowdown in the 2nd largest economy in the world I am not sure what is! The chart appended below is a brief outline of the monetary policy actions by the Bank of China to stimulate their economy. No...
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Wednesday, July 25, 2018
As you can see from the chart below it has been some time since the yield on the 2-Year US Treasury note eclipsed that of the S&P 500 dividend yield. This is due to the fact that the Federal Reserve has continued to raise short-term...
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Tuesday, July 24, 2018
After some time on the beach and with the arrival of Shark Week on the Discovery Channel, I thought this story of a 20-foot great white shark named ‘Deep Blue’ and the below chart seemed appropriate: Chart of the Day As you...
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Monday, July 23, 2018
Yes… 9 of the last 9 recessions started with one. But …. The 2-Year to 10-Year US Treasury bonds inverted in Dec 1988, May 1998, and Jan 2006. S&P 500 peaked 19, 22, and 21 months later. It gained +33.2%, +39.6%, and +22...
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Sunday, July 22, 2018
What this term really means is what is your capacity to suffer losses. FACT #1: Since 1980, the average annual intra-year drawdown is 14% for the S&P 500. INSIGHT: It has been a few years since this has happened so PLEASE do not...
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Saturday, July 21, 2018
Today: 100% Stocks (S&P 500) + 0% Bonds (Barclays Aggregate Bond Index Time Frame: 40 years Average Annual Return = 11.3% Best year (1995) = 37.6% Worst Year (2008) = -37.0% Source: Zacks Investment Management Stay Tuned, Disciplined &...
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Friday, July 20, 2018
Today: 80% Stocks (S&P 500) + 20% Bonds (Barclays Aggregate Bond Index) Time Frame: 40 years Average Annual Return = 10.8% Best year (1982) = 33.6% Worst Year (1994) = -29.8% Source: Zacks Investment Management Stay Tuned, Disciplined...
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Thursday, July 19, 2018
Today: 60% Stocks (S&P 500) + 40% Bonds (Barclays Aggregate Bond Index) Time Frame: 40 yearsAverage Annual Return = 10.2%Best year (1982) = 29.7%Worst Year (1994) = -22.1%Source: Zacks Investment Management Stay Tuned, Disciplined &...
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Wednesday, July 18, 2018
Today: 40% Stocks (S&P 500) + 60% Bonds (Barclays Aggregate Bond Index) Time Frame: 40 years Avearge Annual Return = 9.4% Best year (1982) = 28.4% Worst Year (1994) = -13.6% Source: Zacks Investment Management Stay Tuned, Disciplined &...
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Tuesday, July 17, 2018
Today: 20% Stocks (S&P 500) + 80% Bonds (Barclays Aggregate Bond Index) Time Frame: 40 years Avearge Annual Return = 8.6% Best year (1982) = 30.6% Worst Year (1994) = -4.6% Source: Zacks Investment Management Stay Tuned, Disciplined &...
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Monday, July 16, 2018
Over the next several days, I will augment my normal market update with historical data on returns for various mixes of asset classes. Today: 0% Stocks (S&P 500) + 100 % Bonds (Barclays Aggregate Bond Index) Time Frame: 40 years...
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Sunday, July 15, 2018
“America is an idea. Ireland is a great country, but it’s not an idea. Great Britain is a great country, but it’s not an idea. That’s how we see you around the world, as one of the greatest ideas in human...
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Saturday, July 14, 2018
“The best Armour of Old Age is a well spent life preceding it; a Life employed in the Pursuit of useful Knowledge, in honourable Actions and the Practice of Virtue; in which he who labours to improve himself from his Youth, will...
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Friday, July 13, 2018
Concentration at the top. That proportion of a handful of stocks leading the market is nothing new, however, according to Ned Davis Research Group Chief U.S. Strategist Ed Clissold: “The top five stocks have often had a higher...
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Thursday, July 12, 2018
One of the most interesting features of the new tax bill passed in 2017 was the creation an Opportunity Zone. With the decade long bull market, most investors have large capital gains. This program allows them to defer paying taxes for...
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Wednesday, July 11, 2018
All of this happens each minute of every day globally: 187 million emails 18 million text messages 4.3 million @YouTube videos viewed 3.7 million @google searches 2.4 million @snapchat 971K @facebook logins 481K @twitter messages 266K...
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Tuesday, July 10, 2018
YUM Brands (YUM) could triple in value and that would have the same effect on the S&P 500 as Apple (AAPL) gaining 1%. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O DisclosurePlease...
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Sunday, July 8, 2018
A) They are predicting a slowdown in the US economy in the back half of 2018. OR B) S&P 500 companies are contributing to pension plans this year at a pace expected to nearly match 2017’s level, which at $63 billion was the most...
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Saturday, July 7, 2018
Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O DisclosurePlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying...
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Friday, July 6, 2018
Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O DisclosurePlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying...
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Thursday, July 5, 2018
According to a research note from Goldman Sachs: Growth stocks are highly represented among S&P 500’s top 10 return contributors [and] the top 10 stocks have contributed more than 100% of S&P 500’s YTD return....
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Wednesday, July 4, 2018
Happy 4th of July! Here is my annual post on the birth of our national anthem. Being a native of Baltimore I thought I would take this July 4th as an opportunity to again provide you with the background on our national anthem: The year...
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Tuesday, July 3, 2018
Another Chart(s) of the Day. Start to mentally prepare yourself for the coming bear market. How do I know there will be a bear market? Because there always is. AND there has always been a recovery. So if you need cash in the near-term,...
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Monday, July 2, 2018
There is no Holy Grail in the markets. Many investors solely focus on dividend paying stocks. While over time they historically outperform over a full market cycle (specifically those that raise their dividends), this does not mean you...
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Sunday, July 1, 2018
Talking head Suzie Orman sold 3 million copies of her book The 9 Steps to Financial Freedom. The world’s leading academic investment publication, The Journal of Finance has a circulation of … 8,000. Stay Tuned, Disciplined...
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Saturday, June 30, 2018
Thursday afternoon, a gunman armed with smoke grenades and a shotgun stormed into the newsroom of my hometown paper, the Capital Gazette in Annapolis, Maryland, shooting five of its employees dead and injuring two others. “I can...
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Friday, June 29, 2018
…200-Day Moving Average Charts Unless you want to churn your account. See the chart below (h/t Josh Brown) and the whipsaw nature of the markets around the 200-Day Moving Average during 2000-2001. In general, this is one of many...
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Thursday, June 28, 2018
As a follow-up to a recent Market Morsels note on Growth Over Value, here is my Chart of the Day showing how just how much and how long value stocks have underperformed. Reversion to the mean is an iron law of investing so this is...
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Wednesday, June 27, 2018
Risk Management: Isn’t about avoiding risks, it’s about understanding risk and potential downside. Cost: A focus on cost (which is an item you can control) should be about value delivered, not absolute price. Stay Tuned,...
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Tuesday, June 26, 2018
Yes Virginia the stock market in the US can go down. We saw a broad sell-off yesterday, although if you have been carefully following my blogs this weakness has been an issue for most of this year for countries like China (-20% since...
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Monday, June 25, 2018
While in all honesty I have – and neither does anyone else – an idea of what the market is going to do today, I can give you historical data, but no one really knows. In conversations I am often asked what is moving the...
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Sunday, June 24, 2018
…For Now! JPMorgan’s Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou was out with the latest version of the bank’s popular “Flows And Liquidity” series last week and touched upon foreign profit repatriation and share repurchases...
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Saturday, June 23, 2018
In this Chart of the Day provided by Vala Afshar, these companies disrupted old line operaters with answering the question, “What problem can I solve for my customer with innovation and creativity?” Stay Tuned, Disciplined...
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Friday, June 22, 2018
Growth vs. Value Over the past 10 years, the S&P 500 Value Index of companies selling at low prices relative to their earnings, revenues and net worth has returned an average of 7.1% annually. The S&P 500 Growth Index — stocks...
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Thursday, June 21, 2018
As the US had the highest level of snow cover for April in history, I fully welcome hazy, hot and humid! And with the S&P up over 3% as we hit summer, I would welcome historical returns. Now, many markets are not doing well (think...
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Wednesday, June 20, 2018
Specifically in Emerging Markets and Europe. The below results clearly dispell the Wall Street myth of a Synchronized Global Recovery: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
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Tuesday, June 19, 2018
Morningstar has recently released a new white paper on manager underperformance. In short, even the best managers will go through period of underperformance. I know, I already told you that: here, here and here or search my blog for...
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Monday, June 18, 2018
This is a topic that will always be discussed as long as active management is utilized. The question I always ask is: Do investors have the capacity and discipline to stick with their investment strategy over time? Why do I bring it up...
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Sunday, June 17, 2018
Happy Father’s Day I want all of you to have a little fun this Sunday morning. A few weeks ago my wife and I enjoyed waching the Royal Wedding. Leave it to the internet to create a fun game to play called: My Royal Wedding Name...
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Saturday, June 16, 2018
Play has begun in earnest and this weekend my son and I will be watching the World Cup group stage matches and attending his soccer tournament. Appended below is a cool chart on market rates of return when certain countries win. Vive...
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Friday, June 15, 2018
After posting a few highlights from Mary Meeker’s Internet Trends report, I keep coming back to this chart. US adults now spend 5.9 hours a day on-line. This will soon overtake sleep. And it doesn’t register today’s...
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Thursday, June 14, 2018
After posting a note on San Francisco real estate, here is a $1 million gem in downtown Vancouver: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O DisclosurePlease remember that past...
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Wednesday, June 13, 2018
Chart of the Day New Government? No Worries. Total Number of Governments Since 1945 Just The Facts The State of New Jersey It is the worst-funded public pension of any U.S. state, the second-lowest credit rating, lagging economic...
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Tuesday, June 12, 2018
It has been an adventurous few days as my hard drive decided to stop working and I am now getting back on track so expect a flurry of posts. Pictured below is a beautiful 6,350 square foot home in San Fransisco. 2219 Stock Street Any...
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Monday, June 11, 2018
We continue on the example through the same lense to analyze Large Caps. Here is an example from Fuller & Thaler Asset Management: Asset Class: Large Caps Time Period: 20 Years Ending September 30,2016 Measure: Percent of 3-Year...
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Sunday, June 10, 2018
How about both? The debate rages on as to your school of thought: buy and index and set it and forget it to obtain the average return of the index or allocate capital to active managers that are trying to outperform the index. We say,...
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Saturday, June 9, 2018
These are the largest 25 companies by market capitalization starting in 1927. The yellow highlights the top 25 or their offspring. Follow the yellow brick road! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation...
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Friday, June 8, 2018
All too often investor look at investments as just a piece of paper. If you are a TRADER, this is a fair assessment. A means to an end. If you are an INVESTOR you should alter your mindset. If you are looking to allocate long-term...
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Thursday, June 7, 2018
Her much anticipated annual report was released last week. In came in at 294 slides and is chock full of data. If you are so inclined here is the video of her presentation. Don’t fret I parsed some highlights and insights for...
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Wednesday, June 6, 2018
D-Day. June 6, 1944. The Eyes of the World Are Upon You General Dwight D. Eisenhower's 'Letter In-Case of Failure' It reads: “Our landings in the Cherbourg-Havre area have failed to gain a satisfactory foothold and I have...
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Tuesday, June 5, 2018
Charts of the Day Quantitative Tightening (QT) Has led to a rise in interest rates via the 10-Year US Treasury bond: It is not just QT in the US but globally: So what does this mean? With the rapid expansion in private sector leverage...
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Monday, June 4, 2018
I saw a fascintating article on Bloomberg BusinessWeek recently that detailed how subprime mortgages are being originated and backed by the government. Getting Rich on Government-Back Mortgages Yup you read that right. Check out his...
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Sunday, June 3, 2018
Chart of the Day How many times have you turned on financial news media and heard the following phrase: The Easy Money Has Been Made If your financial advice is free – you get what you pay for! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient!...
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Saturday, June 2, 2018
Charts of the Day I have opined the this week on the Federal Reserve and their actions regarding future interest rate moves and Quantitative Tightening (QT): Wall of Maturities, Emerging Market Currency Crisis and A Thought Experiment....
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Friday, June 1, 2018
While your thoughts this Friday morning may be turning to the weekend (or a two day soccer tournament in the rain), I want to offer some data to chew on. There was a formula developed by Larry Jeddeloh at TIS Group to attempt to gauge...
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Thursday, May 31, 2018
An update: The recent turbulence in emerging markets (EM) has so far prompted a pause on rate cuts from Brazil, triggered the first rate hike since 2014 from Bank Indonesia, prompted multiple dramatic rate hikes from Argentina’s...
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Wednesday, May 30, 2018
Since 2009, the level of global nonfinancial companies rated as speculative, or junk, has surged by 58%, to the highest level ever. With 40% rated B1 or lower, the point that Moody’s considers “highly speculative,” as...
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Tuesday, May 29, 2018
Chart of the Day While many corporate balance sheets are solid thanks to low interest rates and a nine year growth spurt, there is a ‘mountain’ of bonds maturing over the next 10 years. This is yet another factor that the...
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Monday, May 28, 2018
On what is now a tradition on my blog, Memorial Day is a time to reflect on the brave men and women who sacrificed the ultimate gift – life – to protect our freedoms. This is the story of Travis Manion and Brendan Looney....
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Sunday, May 27, 2018
The Vatican released a 15-page document attacking global capitalism, calling for greater regulation of the financial system: “The spread of [credit default swaps] without proper limits has encouraged the growth of a finance of...
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Saturday, May 26, 2018
I wanted to refresh my Investor Character Equation of Stimulus + Reaction = Outcome with some research from The Behavioral Edge by Fuller & Thaler. Traditional finance and investing techniques are based on one key variable: that...
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Friday, May 25, 2018
Ego. From his book The Most Important Thing: The sixth key influence is ego. It can be enormously challenging to remain objective and calculating in the face of facts like these: Investment results are evaluated and compared in the...
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Thursday, May 24, 2018
Ironically, AEI put together this list on the heels of my Netflix vs. Blockbuster post. Only 53 US companies have been on the Fortune 500 since 1955, thanks to the creative destruction that fuels economic prosperity. Stay Tuned,...
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Wednesday, May 23, 2018
Blockbuster vs. Netflix Today in market history, 2002: Netflix raises $82.5 million in its initial public offering, with a total valuation of $300 million. Blockbuster Video had raked in about $800 million in late fees that same year....
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Tuesday, May 22, 2018
The Fed Is On The Wall I don’t know if you’ve seen this but Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic has just walked back some of the hawkish rhetoric from the Fed. Bloomberg quoted him last week as saying, “I have had...
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Monday, May 21, 2018
This past issue of Barron’s had an interesting article on the Father of Index Investing, Jack Bogle. While the creation of index funds revolutionized the capital allocation process, there is a difference in how to effectively...
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Sunday, May 20, 2018
The details of this program sound more like a Sci-Fi movie than real life! Here is the headline: China Turns to Tech to Monitor, Shame, Rate Citizens By 2020, China plans to give all of its 1.4 billion citizens a personal score, based...
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Saturday, May 19, 2018
Sorry to put a damper on your Saturday – actually more of a damper if you live in the northeast with the amout of rain we have had this week. However, after my updates on the need for saving more and the looming retirement crisis...
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Friday, May 18, 2018
On the heels of my Chart of the Day yesterday, I wanted to drive home the point of why it is so important to save. This is something that is firmly within your control. unlike the short-term movements of stocks, bonds and commodities....
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Thursday, May 17, 2018
Today in market history, 1792: The Buttonwood Agreement is signed, forming the New York Stock & Exchange Board. I saw this neat chart in a recent Fidelity presentation on retirement and saving. While it makes sense to start saving and...
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Monday, May 14, 2018
This is not a buy or sell recommendation just a prime example of how culture wins not only on the field of play but in business. Costco pays incredibly good wages relative to competitors. Costco pays employees an average of 72% more...
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Sunday, May 13, 2018
David Tepper Expected To Buy The Carolina Panthers Of The NFL For An Unprecedented $2.2 Billion As a hedge fund manager he know about the Investor Charater Equation | S + R = O “If I go through my career, there’s a lot of...
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Saturday, May 12, 2018
Think about this for a few moments: 7 out of 10 children entering elementary schools today will have jobs that don’t exist today. Here are some jobs invented just in last 10 years: App developer (This is not a short-order cook)...
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Friday, May 11, 2018
According to data from the Federal Reserve, the total amount of student debt in the United States is now $1.5 trillion. That’s more than the estimated $1.3 trillion in direct costs that the government spent fighting the War in...
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Thursday, May 10, 2018
Appended below is an interesting chart of historical stock market performace during and after mid-term elections – courtesy of Liz Ann Sonders. As you can see the average drawdown is 17%. This compares to an average drawdown of...
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Wednesday, May 9, 2018
On Learning “Any place you can find somebody that gives you insights into things you didn’t understand before—and maybe makes you a better person than you would have been before—that’s very lucky and you...
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Tuesday, May 8, 2018
This time he answers questions on CNBC post-shareholder meeting with additional details: On the market: Stocks aren’t in a bubble now. Though said some private deal valuations are getting high and it’s harder to find...
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Monday, May 7, 2018
I wanted to save you 8 hours and highlight a few of Warren Buffett’s answers during the annual Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting: On Bitcoin: “It’s probably rat poison squared.” On the tax cuts: “It is...
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Sunday, May 6, 2018
On the heels of the pilgramage to Omaha, NE for the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting this past weekend, I found it interesting that the this metric received little fan fare during Warren Buffett’s (age 87) 8 hours of Q&A with...
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Saturday, May 5, 2018
If you would like to follow along, you can view the livestream in real time. The event kick-off this morning at 9:45 AM EST. Enjoy! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
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Friday, May 4, 2018
The montly Non-Farm Payroll report was released today. While this is always a big headliner in the financial markets, it is reporting on the past month and does not give an indication of future employment trends. However, it is hard to...
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Thursday, May 3, 2018
With the calendar turning to May, the economic expansion officially hit 107 months. This ranks as the 2nd longest expansion since WWII: May ’91 – 120 months June ’09 (current) – 107 months Feb ’61 –...
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Monday, April 30, 2018
Why Protect The Downside? MATH! One way to potentially execute downside protection – outside of cash? Long/Short equity strategies. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
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Sunday, April 29, 2018
It is unbelievable but Americans lost track of more than $7.7 billion in retirement savings in 2015, according to the National Association of Unclaimed Property Administrators (NAUPA). If you have lost track of old 401(k) or other...
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Saturday, April 28, 2018
Inflation or Deflation Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O DisclosurePlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments...
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Friday, April 27, 2018
77% According to FactSet, 77% of S&P 500 companies reported actual sales above estimated sales for Q4 2017—the highest percentage since FactSet began tracking this data in 2008. 88% 88% of the companies on the Fortune 500 list in...
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Thursday, April 26, 2018
…To Determine The Next Recession No I am not referring to an inverted yield curve – although that is one. Researchers at Notre Dame have found another: fertility rates. “Many papers show that aggregate fertility is...
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Wednesday, April 25, 2018
And not just as a hedge against rising interest rates, but also against stock gyrations. For today’s note we are going to focus on how hedge funds perform versus stocks during periods of sustained Fed tightening, like the one we...
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Tuesday, April 24, 2018
You know my thoughts on forecasting – it’s hard and rarely useful. Below is a chart from the Atlanta Fed outlining their predictions of GDP. In the span of two months they have gone from 5.4% to 2%. This is what I call...
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Monday, April 23, 2018
And not just as a hedge against declining stock prices, but also rising interest rates. For today’s note we are going to focus on how hedge funds perform versus bonds during periods of sustained Fed tightening, like the one we...
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Sunday, April 22, 2018
Earth Day turned 48 on Sunday, April 22. Senator Gaylord Nelson (D-WI) founded Earth Day in 1970. His hope was to make the environment a political issue in an era when US rivers caught on fire and thick smog choked cities. One of the...
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Saturday, April 21, 2018
While the domestic stock markets have levitated higher over the past few weeks, I am here to remind you that we appear to be BACK in a more normalized regime for volatility. What does that mean you ask? Since 1930, US stocks have...
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Friday, April 20, 2018
Here is the 2017 Amazon shareholder letter for your weekend consumption. “High standards are contagious…The opposite is also true.” People are mirrors of their environments. Culture is an invisible force that is...
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Thursday, April 19, 2018
Be Very Skeptical…of CEO’s and managment teams telling you they know the future. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O DisclosurePlease remember that past performance...
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Wednesday, April 18, 2018
…Move Along Do you think the nations infrastructure needs repairs? Spectrum News NY1 ✔@NY1 More subway waterfalls. This was one commuter's view when the subway doors opened at 42nd Street-Bryant Park. (Video courtesy @BretHyde)...
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Sunday, April 15, 2018
In my latest post I referenced the concentrated nature of the return stream of domestic equities. While it is nice to have exposure to these names, as you can imagine it typically does not end well. As of the end of February 2018, the...
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Saturday, April 14, 2018
It paid to hold these stocks for the last few years! As a reminder: Facebook Apple Amazon Microsoft Google All data through 03/31/2018 FAAMG Returns YTD = 4.1% S&P 500 Returns YTD = -0.8% S&P 500 Excluding FAAMG’s YTD = -1.4%...
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Friday, April 13, 2018
On this day in 1970 those words were spoken from Apollo 13. “New Jersey, we have a problem.” If our current politicians have any say, those words will never be uttered by them. It will be kicked to someone else to deal with...
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Thursday, April 12, 2018
According to PGIM, you should: Stick To Your Allocation During Times of Volatility. I have been telling you that, but they have some data! PGIM evaluated a 68-year time period with 26 volatility spikes and 25 post-peak events....
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Wednesday, April 11, 2018
Below you will see that 108 consecutive months of global central bank easing has come to an end. This chart provided by Liz Ann Sonders outlines the fact that financial conditions are tightening across the globe. The issue to watch...
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Tuesday, April 10, 2018
Later in his letter, Dimon admits that the US is facing some serious economic headwinds today. For one, he’s concerned the unwinding of quantitative easing (QE) could have unintended consequences on the economy. Remember- QE was...
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Monday, April 9, 2018
But first here is an awesome video of a Noelle Lambert, a women’s lacrosse player from UMass-Lowell scoring her first goal of the season after lossing a leg in a moped accident in 2016. Awesome! To continue on my comments...
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Sunday, April 8, 2018
After Friday’s 2% sell-off, I wanted to highlight two masters and their thoughts on volatility: “As long as the odds are in our favor and we’re not risking the whole company on one throw of the dice or anything close...
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Saturday, April 7, 2018
Along with Warren Buffett and the investment managers we utilize for clients, Jamie Dimon’s annual letter to JP Morgan shareholders is a must read for me. He is an excellent writer and opines on broad topics from his perch atop...
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Friday, April 6, 2018
Asset Class returns updated through March 31, 2018 I challange you to review and find a pattern that you can invest in now to capitalize on what asset class will be at the top next quarter. One interesting stat is the MSCI Emerging...
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Thursday, April 5, 2018
I thought when the Masters started it was the real start of spring? I guess Mother Nature didn’t get the memo this year. The Masters at Augusta is a perfect segway to the Golden Bear and my S+R=O Investor Equation: “Success...
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Wednesday, April 4, 2018
Thus far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had 11 sessions when it rose by at least 1%, including Monday, in addition to another 13 where it fell by at least that much, counting Tuesday. While swings of that magnitude are...
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Tuesday, April 3, 2018
Below are exerpts from the blog Safal Niveshak and in just two paragraphs he outlines to a client the NEED for volatility: “If you study Nassim Taleb, markets are organic and complex systems, not machines to be fixed. And by...
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Monday, April 2, 2018
Easter Monday Money Fact: Americans spend about $2.4 billion strictly on Easter candy. I ate my fair share of any sort of chocolate/peanut butter combo over the weekend! According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, April has...
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Sunday, April 1, 2018
It’s a bird. It’s a plane. It’s an uncontrollable international Chineses space station. A 9.4-ton Chinese space station will soon begin falling to Earth and New Jersey is part of a swath of the planet where debris...
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Saturday, March 31, 2018
The first quarter of 2018 had a negative total return for both the S&P 500 and Barclays US Aggregate. This is the first time since the 3rd quarter of 2008. And only the 8th time in the last 30 years. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient!...
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Thursday, March 29, 2018
A new volatilite regime is upon us. Here is the proof: For the S&P 500, the 1st quarter of 2018 will finish with at least five -2% days (no matter what happens today). Since 1985, there have only been 4 other years with at least five...
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Wednesday, March 28, 2018
After yesterday massive intraday swing and on the heels of a few manic months, it appears we are in a new risk regime. Meaning we will be locked in a battle of major market swings both high and low, which will lead to a grinding out of...
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Tuesday, March 27, 2018
Caveat: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any individual securities mentioned below. Sometimes I am just not sure what our government is thinking. The latest example is the blocking of the AT&T and Time Warner merger. While...
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Monday, March 26, 2018
Thought of the Day There are few things an investor can control and the movement of the markets certainly are not one of them. This is why my concept of the Investor & Character Equation applies to all facets of life, especially...
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Sunday, March 25, 2018
Yes another chart, but this one fits squarely into my S+R=O equation. They outline Cognitive Biases that can be mapped over to investing. I will go out on a limb and say virtually ever investor suffers from many of these. One of the...
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Saturday, March 24, 2018
I absolutely love the daily e-mails I get from Visual Capitalist. They range in subject matter from OBOR (China’s Most Ambitious Megaprojecy) to Autonomous Vehicles. Today’s visual is a crash course on personal finance....
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Friday, March 23, 2018
One of the latest Wall Street gimmicks was that unconstrained, flexible bond funds would allow you to maintain exposure to bonds, provided diversification with bond-like returns without the worry of higher interest rates. Exactly...
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Thursday, March 22, 2018
It has only been one press conference but it appears the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jay Powell may be a bit more realistic and straight forward than his predecessors. First, his press conference actually ended 15 minutes...
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Wednesday, March 21, 2018
Another risk to investing in bonds is reaching for yield. This is something investors have struggled with since interest rates were slashed to zero a decade ago. While it is nice to pick-up additional income, it does come with risk....
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Tuesday, March 20, 2018
Tomorrow the Federal Reserve will most likely raise interest rates by 0.25% as it continues to tighten monetary conditions. This will be the sixth rate increase since the Fed lowered rates to zero during the Global Financial Crisis....
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Monday, March 19, 2018
Elizabeth Holmes, the CEO and founder of “game-changing blood testing company” Theranos, has seen her profile and company implode. She, along with the former president and the company itself, has been charged by the SEC for...
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Sunday, March 18, 2018
Helping a young person fund an IRA—especially a Roth IRA—can be a great way to give them a head start on saving for retirement. This is mainly due to the power of compounding over a longer the timeline and taking advantage...
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Saturday, March 17, 2018
FAANG Update First, a reminder of the players: Facebook Apple Amazon Netflix Google The details: The 5 FAANG names collectively have a ~12% weighting in S&P 500 as of Friday’s close The Cap-Weighted total return from that 12%...
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Friday, March 16, 2018
Dr. Richard Thaler “The crazy thing is thinking humans always act logically.” This is a key pillar of my Investor & Character Equation and why it is so important that investors realize their short comings and what they can...
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Thursday, March 15, 2018
According to the US Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, investors have borrowed a record $642.8 billion against investment portfolios. The leverage from this margin debt is a bid to increase returns. However, it leaves investors...
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Wednesday, March 14, 2018
Stephen Hawking “Intelligence is the ability to adapt to change.” I hope the mysteries of the universe have been revealed to this visionary physicist! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character...
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Monday, March 12, 2018
We have just experienced the second longest US expansion in history. Well, actually it is a tie. The current U.S. economic expansion has continued now, uninterrupted, for 106 months with no recession. The average U.S. expansion lasts...
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Sunday, March 11, 2018
It is not just individual investors who reach for yield. Bond managers often reach for yield thinking they can outsmart the market on rates and increase the income without sacrificing volatility and/or potential losses. According to...
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Friday, March 9, 2018
On this day 9 years ago, the stock market bottomed marking the low of the Global Financial Crisis. To celebrate, Nerd Wallet highlighted 9 Facts for 9 Years: 1. Day 1 starts with a bang On Wall Street, bear markets are periods of...
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Thursday, March 8, 2018
In support of all of the wonderful women, including my wife and daughter, I thought I would post an interesting note on women in finance. Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) recently compiled data on this topic. And what they found...
Read MoreDanielle Lacalle “If a technology is viable, it does not need subsidies. If it is unviable, no subsidies will change it.” Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...
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Tuesday, March 6, 2018
First to (Almost) Worst The #1 performing stock in the S&P 500 during 2017 was ranked # 491 during January 2018, down 8.7% last month after gaining +132.3% last year, according to BTN Research. Exclusive Club What does it take to get...
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Monday, March 5, 2018
Emerging Markets, Volatility & Valuations Great insights into the above three themes from WisdomTree. Emerging Markets Outperform During The Correction One thing we found interesting was that during the height of the correction, the...
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Sunday, March 4, 2018
In a short nine day period US stocks dropped into correction territory which is defined as a loss of 10% from recent highs. By the end of the month, the S&P 500 had rebounded by 5.1% from their February 8th lows. This monthly loss was...
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Saturday, March 3, 2018
Where have all of the publicly trades companies gone? Data courtesy of Credit Suisse The Wilshire 5000 is made up of 3,492 publicly traded companies. Total listed domestic companies fell from 7,322 at its peak in 1996 to 3,671 in 2016,...
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Friday, March 2, 2018
Great brief by Vishal at Safal Niveshak on the first page of the Berkshire Annual Report. Losing Less = Making More Long-Term Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O DisclosurePlease...
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Thursday, March 1, 2018
After my post on the underperformance of Warren Buffett, I wanted to provide a bit more context. In the short-term, his stock picks have underperformed 8 of the last 10 years. However, dating back to 2000, his stock picks have...
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Wednesday, February 28, 2018
On the heels of Warren Buffett’s annual letter release, I wanted to highlight an interesting fact. Warren Buffett has underperformed the S&P 500 by 30% over rolling 1-year time periods 5 times! Yes – you read that correctly...
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Tuesday, February 27, 2018
This chart at the end of Vanguards 2018 Outlook dovetails perfectly into my Investor + Character Equation of S + R = O. Vanguard also realized that their 35 page outlook will not have nearly the same effect on your long-term goals as...
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Monday, February 26, 2018
$12 Billion That’s how much NBC paid for the rights to broadcast the Olympics from 2014 through 2032. That enormous investment is doing fine, but a ratings slide may be making some at Comcast a little skittish. Viewership of the...
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Sunday, February 25, 2018
This is my Chart of the Day: As we mentioned previously Warren Buffett is bullish...on America. He should have added...bullish on America over the long-term. Because in the near-term his favorite valuation metric (shown above) is not...
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Saturday, February 24, 2018
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway annual letter was released on Saturday. I am going to be highlighting certain sections for my readers throughout the next few weeks. While he didn’t touch upon in detail his succession...
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Friday, February 23, 2018
Facts of the Day Amazon (AMZN) has accounted for ~30% of the S&P 500 gains year-to-date. Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX) and Microsoft (MSFT) together have contributed close to 50% of the index gains. And the Technology sector overall...
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Thursday, February 22, 2018
The team at Chenmark Capital recently spoke of the great nuance to managing business growth with a long-term perspective. It’s not that growth is as inherently good or bad as it may seem when looking at things through the lens of...
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Wednesday, February 21, 2018
Charts of the Day Going back to 1871 when the data set begins, the average CAPE Ratio is 16.79. At its current value of 31.09, the CAPE is 85% above that average, meaning the S&P 500 would need to drop 46% tomorrow for valuations to...
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Monday, February 19, 2018
As I have opined in prior writings, valuations are not catalyst to move the market in either direction. And no it did not cause the 10% sell-off earlier this month. The U.S. stock market today has only been this expensive just before...
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Sunday, February 18, 2018
Pick a side: Team A Amazon Apple Facebook Team B Best Buy Blackberry Hawaiian Airline Team A right? Right? Nope. Team B outperformed Team A over the last 5 years. It is not always about the headlines and the big names. Stay Tuned,...
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Saturday, February 17, 2018
Charlie Munger “It takes character to sit with all that cash and to do nothing. I didn’t get to where I am by going after mediocre opportunities.” Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character...
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Friday, February 16, 2018
By Howard Marks February 2016 “My buddy Sandy was an airline pilot. When asked to describe his job, he always answers, “hours of boredom punctuated by moments of terror.” The same can be true for investment managers,...
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Thursday, February 15, 2018
Dating back to 1945, the S&P 500 has had 27 declines of between 10-20%. We did eclipse 10% this month. The average decline in those periods was 14%. The average length of the decline was 4 months, so this may not be over. So…...
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Wednesday, February 14, 2018
The last few weeks have been a roller coast up AND down. If you feel your mood being dictated by the moves of the market, you need to step back and turn off the TV. Unless you are a day trader and need to know every tick of a stock or...
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Tuesday, February 13, 2018
So very true! Don’t fall for the click-bait. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O DisclosurePlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results....
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Monday, February 12, 2018
I am not saying the resent move lower will not leave a mark, I am just trying to stress that it is all part of the process. Human beings are not wired to be rationale investors, thus like any physical task you must practice training...
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Sunday, February 11, 2018
In the 75 years from 1943-2017, the S&P 500 had 28 declines of at least 10% but less than 20% or once every 2.7 years. A correction is defined as a stock market decline of at least 10% but less than 20% The bottom line is this –...
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Saturday, February 10, 2018
One of the questions most posed last week by clients was why did the market fall and who is to blame. As expected everyone is looking for definitive answers but as is always the case with the stock market, many factors were at play....
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Friday, February 9, 2018
It’s All Relative After the nine year bull market we have seen since the end of the Global Financial Crisis, a point decline in absolute terms is equating to a much smaller percentage drop. For example, the Dow shed 1,175 points...
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Thursday, February 8, 2018
While any correction is typically Short, Sharp & Scary, we need to realize this is part of the PROCESS and is NORMAL. As the chart below outlines, this correction is no different. This is the 22nd pullback greater than 5% since the...
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Wednesday, February 7, 2018
…Not the placid markets we experiences for nearly two years without a 5% drop. That period was the anomaly. The research team at DFA and JP Morgan produce great work on Intra-Year Declines. In examining calendar year returns for...
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Tuesday, February 6, 2018
Psychologist Daniel Kahneman “If owning stocks is a long-term project for you following their changes constantly is a very, very BAD IDEA. It’s the worst possible thing you can do, because people are so sensitive to...
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Monday, February 5, 2018
The Philadelphia Eagles win the Super Bowl with a former back-up NFL QB as head coach (Pederson) and former back-up NFL QB as offensive coordinator (Reich) and back-up NFL QB (Foles) as the Super Bowl MVP! The Eagles are NFL champions...
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Sunday, February 4, 2018
As I stated my case yesterday, if history is any indication let’s hope the Patriots lose tonight. As many of my readers know I often intertwine sports and performance into my writings. Just like the Investor Character Equation...
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Saturday, February 3, 2018
Yes I have adopted the Eagles since my Baltimore Ravens missed the playoffs (again). How can I not with the euphoria here in south Jersey. But there is an ulterior motive: Stocks perform better in years when NFC teams wins the Super...
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Friday, February 2, 2018
One of the biggest concerns investors have today is when will the markets drop and by how much. I tell them that the next bear market catalyst is predicated on the rate of change of US growth (GDP and Profits) and Inflation. However,...
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Thursday, February 1, 2018
As you can see from the chart embedded below, the stock market has been overvalued for a long period of time. In this example, the red portion is when the CAPE Ratio trades BELOW its long-term average. So dating back to 1990, it has...
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Wednesday, January 31, 2018
Yes the stock market can go down and on back-to-back days! Even this recent parabolic move higher needs to take a breather. Here are the Stats of the Day: First 1% drop in 112 days. This ties for the longest stretch since 1985. First...
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Tuesday, January 30, 2018
In January alone, Bitcoin lost as much in market cap as the entire value of Ford (F). It is currently estimated that 4% of Bitcoin owners own 95% of all Bitcoin. So, even if estimates are true that 1 in 20 Americans have exposure to...
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Monday, January 29, 2018
The amount of income leaving CT and NY is roughly double the amount of people leaving the state, according to AEI. For example, while net migration in 2016 was negative to the tune of -0.80% in CT, the % of AGI (adjusted gross income)...
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Sunday, January 28, 2018
As you can see in the chart below, in the last 100 years the red highlights the amount of time the CAPE ratio (Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings ratio) is ABOVE current levels. Exactly – not often. That was during the Technology...
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Sunday, October 1, 2017
In what turned out to be one of the most docile Septembers in history, October is typically maniacal.The 3 best gain days (by percentage) for the S&P 500 in the last 67+ years (i.e., dating back to January 1950) all occurred during...
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Friday, September 29, 2017
To dovetail on yesterday's musing, here is a chart outlining pullbacks and frequencies: We did have a ~10% correction to start off 2016; however, we have not had a 5% correction since.It has been 41 weeks since the last time the S&P...
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Thursday, September 28, 2017
Chart and Stat of the DayChart courtesy of Michael Batnick:We’ve NEVER had a full year with an S&P 500 max drawdown this small. Full Stop.However, the year is not yet over.As a reminder, since 1980, the average annual drawdown is...
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