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Thursday, November 19, 2020

What Congress SHOULD NOT DO with tax payer money, per Reuters: The chief executives of the largest US airlines made a fresh plea for Congress to pass a new round of federal payroll aid this year to meet the logistical challenges of...

 

Wednesday, November 18, 2020

A total of more than 16 million workers will have lost CARES Act benefits by the end of the year. This is in addition to the 12 million workers who will see their CARES Act benefits expire on December 26. Therefore, it should come as...

 

Tuesday, November 17, 2020

Very high efficacy rates for vaccines are not uncommon: Pfizer = Preliminary Reported of 90% Moderna = Preliminary Reported 94.5%. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT...

 

Monday, November 16, 2020

As you can see in the Chart of the Day, with the rally in stocks last week the 5 largest stocks by market capitalization reached an all-time high as a percentage of the S&P 500 at 23%. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...

 

Sunday, November 15, 2020

According to Peter Brandt, during the 2015-2017 bull market in Bitcoin, there were 9 significant corrections with the following averages: 37% decline from high to low 14 weeks from one All-Time High to the next All-Time High. Since the...

 

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Saturday, November 14, 2020

In the Chart of the Day, you can see how the S&P 500 has gotten much more expensive this year as measured by the P/E ratio. This is even after the crash we experienced in February/March. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...

 

Friday, November 13, 2020

While this appears to be a pre-planned sale, the optics and communication efforts from Pfizer this week outside of the obvious have not been effective. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) |...

 

Thursday, November 12, 2020

In less than a year, a vaccine has been discovered. The previous record for the fastest time to develop a vaccine occurred during the late 1960s when it took four years to develop a vaccine for the mumps. ~Goldman Sachs Stay Tuned,...

 

Wednesday, November 11, 2020

“A veteran is someone who, at one point in their life wrote a blank check made payable to ‘The United States of America,’ for an amount up to and including their life.” ~Unknown We are the land of the free,...

 

Tuesday, November 10, 2020

I have blogged about this before but wanted to highlight again, especially after the price action post the Pfizer news on a potential vaccine. The cumulative After-Hours return since the March 23 bottom just hit +50%. Meanwhile the day...

 

Monday, November 9, 2020

Although after the rally in the stock market and the rise in yields globally, this may slip back to below $16 Trillion! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...

 

Sunday, November 8, 2020

In the past 10 years, passive equity funds have enjoyed inflows of more than $2 trillion, even as traditional, active ones have suffered outflows of over $1.5 trillion, per The Financial Times. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM}...

 

Saturday, November 7, 2020

In the Chart of the Day, I wanted to share this gem as we are on the verge of The Masters from Augusta National Golf Club. The list of invitees to this years tournament if very similar to the breakdown of the MSCI ACWI Index. Stay...

 

Friday, November 6, 2020

From Election Day via Hedgeye cartoonist Bob Rich. Regardless who is President the stock market wants Fed Chairman Powell to continue to provide stimulus, even though markets are near all-time highs! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient!...

 

Thursday, November 5, 2020

I found this unbiased and data-driven chart that I thought I would share with everyone this morning: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease...

 

Wednesday, November 4, 2020

As drawn by a toddler. I know this is a very serious matter, but I had to bring some levity to the conversation. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...

 

Tuesday, November 3, 2020

I know today is Election Day but we won’t know much until (hopefully) this evening but most likely later this week. This is a great look at how a couple from Columbia saw an opportunity and has capitalized on pineapple waste and...

 

Monday, November 2, 2020

On the eve of the election, I wanted to provide to you a timeline of events from BlackRock: After election day, states have until December 8 to count ballots, conduct recounts and settle any disputes in accordance with the “safe...

 

Sunday, November 1, 2020

Since 1899…some things have changed/evolved over time: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be...

 

Saturday, October 31, 2020

While there is some nuance to this such as early ‘in-person’ voting and ‘mail-in’ voting it give you a general idea why we may need a standardized process going forward. Arizona has been voting by mail since...

 

Friday, October 30, 2020

The Federal Reserve has two main objectives: Maintain Full Employment Price Stability Exxon decides to cut 15% of its workforce or 14,000 jobs in order to maintain its dividend. So tell me again what was accomplished by the Federal...

 

Thursday, October 29, 2020

Between the pandemic, taking classes remotely, taking gap years or simply not being able to find a job, young adults are doing the wise thing and moving back home to re-set and save money. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...

 

Wednesday, October 28, 2020

…Sector Breakdowns versus the S&P 500: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of...

 

Tuesday, October 27, 2020

Blue Wave / Green Deal or not the energy sectors weight in the S&P 500 has dropped to under 2% from 6% in 1990. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...

 

Monday, October 26, 2020

It looks like Buy at the Close and Sell at the Open wins! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be...

 

Sunday, October 25, 2020

The market capitalizations of the FAAMG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft & Google) now exceeds that of the 7 largest European countries COMBINED: U.K., Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Russia, and Poland Stay Tuned, Disciplined...

 

Saturday, October 24, 2020

“Regardless of the election’s outcome, I believe we are looking at the prospect of rising debt levels as far as the eye can see.” ~Jurrien Timmer Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character...

 

Friday, October 23, 2020

While the US Federal Reserve does not buy stocks (yet – just wait for the next crash), the Swiss National Bank does. Here is a look at their top portfolio holdings: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor &...

 

Thursday, October 22, 2020

Hint: Not good! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types...

 

Wednesday, October 21, 2020

…This Can Happen Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results....

 

Tuesday, October 20, 2020

Late-stage mortgage delinquencies rose to 1.4 percent among borrowers in July, the highest level since 1999, according to a new report from CoreLogic. The July numbers represent the latest available data and stand in contrast to...

 

Monday, October 19, 2020

8 million Americans slipped into poverty amid coronavirus pandemic, new study says. Researchers looked at the devastating financial effect the pandemic has had on Americans, with Blacks, Latinos and children faring the worst. Although...

 

Sunday, October 18, 2020

Vanguard looked at about 2,700 companies, grouped them into ratings buckets, and then compared their earnings in the first half of this year with earnings in the first half of 2019. “The results generally suggest that the higher...

 

Saturday, October 17, 2020

Greece is issuing 10 year government bonds with a yield of less than 1%! This is down from 11% over winter of 2015/6. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...

 

Friday, October 16, 2020

A good reminder as we approach election day: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of...

 

Thursday, October 15, 2020

In the investment circles the whale is the Bank of Japan (BOJ). The BOJ is the “whale in the pond” of Japanese financial markets, as they own huge swaths of markets: ~70% of ETFs ~40% of Government Bonds ~20% of Commercial...

 

Wednesday, October 14, 2020

This is from Grant’s Interest Rate Observer: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative...

 

Tuesday, October 13, 2020

In the US, as of August, total homeowners in active forbearance were 7.4% of all active mortgages: GSE: 5.4% FHA/VA: 11.5% Private Label: 7.9% Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Monday, October 12, 2020

While the US Central Bank has ballooned their balance sheet to 36% of GDP to north of $7 trillion. Norway has the world beat in terms of size of central bank balance sheet relative to GDP at 422%. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient!...

 

Sunday, October 11, 2020

More than half of small businesses never came back after the lockdowns compared to last year. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember...

 

Saturday, October 10, 2020

Insider Selling Reached All-Time Highs in August In August, daily filings for company insider stock purchases reached an all-time high of 152 purchases per day. The weekly numbers, following a few slow weeks in July, skyrocketed in...

 

Friday, October 9, 2020

The 50 richest Americans are worth as much as the poorest 165 million, says new data from the Federal Reserve. Yet they members of the board continue to state their actions to pump stimulus into the markets doesn’t create...

 

Thursday, October 8, 2020

Feeding America, an organization that runs 200 food banks, says 17 million more people lack consistent access to enough food compared to last year, a leap of nearly 50%. Yet according to new reports, the world wastes twice as much more...

 

Wednesday, October 7, 2020

As you can see in my Chart of the Day, those in the lowest earning rung have still not fully recovered. And this is with massive monetary stimulus via the Fed and monetary stimulus from Congress. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient!...

 

Tuesday, October 6, 2020

The Federal Reserve continues to insist their policies absolutely do not add to inequality. The Top 1% own 52.4% of corporate equities and mutual funds. The bottom 50% own just 1.9%. And they are trying to reflate asset prices, not...

 

Monday, October 5, 2020

Former Vice President Biden’s plan to raise corporate taxes would reduce expected S&P 500 corporate earnings by 9.2%, according to Bank of America Global Research estimates. It would result in much bigger profit drops for big...

 

Sunday, October 4, 2020

As the old saying goes ‘credit leads stocks’ so something has to give. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past...

 

Saturday, October 3, 2020

An Internet Minute: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different...

 

Wednesday, September 30, 2020

One in ten firms surveyed by LendingTree received what they needed. Maybe the late former President Reagan was right when he said, ” The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: I’m from the government, and...

 

Tuesday, September 29, 2020

As you can see in my Charts of the Day, subway ridership is still down dramatically year-0ver-year, while Bridge & Tunnel Crossings have almost completely rebounded. This is due to single driver volume heading into the city. Stay Tuned...

 

Monday, September 28, 2020

The trend is not the savers friend! US 10-Year Treasury Yields: September 1980: 11.6% September 1985: 10.4% September 1990: 8.9% September 1995: 6.2% September 2000: 5.9% September 2005: 4.3% September 2010: 2.8% September 2015: 2.2%...

 

Sunday, September 27, 2020

In the Chart of the Day, Alliance Bernstein outlines the timetable for vaccines to hit the market. It is a race, but will it beat the election? Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R =...

 

Saturday, September 26, 2020

The size of the tax increase proposed by Joe Biden as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) would be one of the largest ever and rival President Lyndon B. Johnson’s (LBJ) tax increases in the late 1960s. Let’s...

 

Friday, September 25, 2020

How the US dollar does ahead of the election has been a great indicator of which party might win in November. If the dollar is weak three months before the election, this bodes well for the incumbent party, while the incumbent party...

 

Thursday, September 24, 2020

S&P 500 Index earnings are expected to jump close to 23% in 2021 according to FactSet, as the global economy recovers. Presidential nominee Joe Biden has made it very clear he will likely hike taxes, which could potentially cut 10% off...

 

Wednesday, September 23, 2020

Gallup poll approval ratings have done a nice job of predicting how many votes a president up for re-election might get. With a 42% Gallup approval rating currently, this comes out to 49% of the total votes for President Trump, which...

 

Tuesday, September 22, 2020

If real per capita disposable income is higher, the incumbent president usually wins. Conversely, if wages are weak, that bodes well for someone new in the White House. Given real per capita disposable income is up more than 7% this...

 

Monday, September 21, 2020

8 Days to the First Presidential Debate 42 Days to Election Day And most importantly: 101 Days Until 2020 Is Over Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...

 

Sunday, September 20, 2020

Here is what the S&P 500 historically has done during re-election years. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance...

 

Saturday, September 19, 2020

If President Donald Trump is going to win, right about now is when the S&P 500 Index should start to outperform. Of course, if it weakens, it could mean we will be looking at a President Joe Biden soon. Stay Tuned, Disciplined &...

 

Friday, September 18, 2020

How stocks perform three months before the election has a stellar track record of predicting who will win in November. If stocks are higher, the incumbent party tends to win, while if stocks are lower, the incumbent party tends to lose...

 

Thursday, September 17, 2020

Stocks historically have done much better when there isn’t a lame duck president. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that...

 

Wednesday, September 16, 2020

Looking at the four-year presidential cycle shows that stocks haven’t been down during a year the president was up for a re-election since FDR in the 1940s, another bullish tailwind for 2020. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient!...

 

Tuesday, September 15, 2020

The best scenario under a Republican president is a split Congress, a potential positive for 2020 that has played out after the massive reversal in the stock market since March. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor &...

 

Monday, September 14, 2020

A split Congress historically has been one of the best scenarios for investors. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past...

 

Sunday, September 13, 2020

It is that time of year and that time of the election cycle that means plenty of client questions on the election. Well for the next few days I will be posting Charts of the Day on this very topic. Here’s how the S&P 500 Index...

 

Saturday, September 12, 2020

In this busy Chart of the Day, you can see that just 10 stocks accounted for half of the return of the S&P 500 in the month of August. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Friday, September 11, 2020

“September 11 impressed upon us that life is a precious gift… And I think we all have a duty to devote at least a small portion of our daily lives to ensuring that neither America nor the world ever forgets September 11...

 

Thursday, September 10, 2020

On The Elections Jonathan Lemco, Ph.D., Vanguard Investment Strategy Group “It’s important that investors not lose sight of their own goals and their own long-term strategies. Financial markets are incredibly complex...

 

Wednesday, September 9, 2020

In my Chart of the Day, the mortgage market recorded its best quarter in years this past spring, reflecting how housing market has boomed in 2020 even as much of rest of economy stumbled. With the Federal Reserve buying more than $1...

 

Tuesday, September 8, 2020

This is an amazing and completely coincidental chart of the Shanghai Composite Index overlaid on a map of Virginia! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...

 

Monday, September 7, 2020

While I do not believe in one factor models, it is hard to ignore when insiders of US listed companies are dumping stock. Insiders unloaded $6.7 billion worth of their own company stock during market’s rally to new highs in...

 

Sunday, September 6, 2020

Citi’s Matt King: “Stimulus is going into asset price inflation, not CPI. And the build-up of ever larger asset price bubbles itself pins down the rates market. This combination creates a dangerous environment where...

 

Saturday, September 5, 2020

After my entry on Leaving New Jersey (NY, CT & IL as well), I wanted to follow-up with where folks are moving to: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...

 

Friday, September 4, 2020

Due to the COVID-19 this will not be a surprise: 52% of 18-29 year old’s live with their parent(s). The highest value ever recorded. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Thursday, September 3, 2020

Second homes, luxury cars, boats and pools are selling fast. Meanwhile, the percent of U.S. households that didn’t have enough to eat in the previous seven days is more than double what it was in 2018. Ben Eisen outlines in his...

 

Wednesday, September 2, 2020

Bloomberg: Based on recent data from United Van Lines, 7 out of every 10 moves in New Jersey are households LEAVING the state – accelerating a distinct trend over the past five years [also included in that trend are New York and...

 

Tuesday, September 1, 2020

As you can see in the Chart of the Day more people are coming back into New York City. However, it is still down nearly 25% year-over-year. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Monday, August 31, 2020

As you can see in the Chart of the Day below, with the S&P 500 hitting all-time highs, the volatility of the S&P 500 is also nearing all-time highs. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S +...

 

Sunday, August 30, 2020

To dovetail on my previous entry on Forward P/E ratios of US equity markets, the appended Chart of the Day looks back even further. The trailing PE of US stocks has only been higher on two occasions: December 1921 June 1999 Stay Tuned,...

 

Saturday, August 29, 2020

Market Capitalization comparison: 2005 vs. 2020 Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of...

 

Friday, August 28, 2020

Yesterday, the BEA revised 2nd quarter GDP to -31.7% from the original estimate of 32.9%. This is the worst number on record. However, on the heels of the “better than expected’ revisions to 2nd quarter GDP, Hedgeye’s...

 

Thursday, August 27, 2020

Can you say overbought! No wonder builders are having a difficult time finding supplies. Homebuilders are on a tear as home prices outside of urban areas drive higher. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character...

 

Wednesday, August 26, 2020

The European Central Bank (ECB) balance sheet hit fresh ALL TIME HIGHS (ATH) at $6.024 Billion as Chairwomen Lagarde keeps the printing press rumbling. Total assets rose by €19.4 Billion on Quantitative Easing (QE) efforts, while...

 

Tuesday, August 25, 2020

It took Apple 38 years to get to their first trillion in market capitalization. From October 19th to August 20th it took them 0.8 years to go from $1 trillion to $2 trillion in market cap. Data from the last four years: Price = +350%...

 

Monday, August 24, 2020

Fact of the Day Mega-cap technology stocks continue to push major US stock markets higher. Last week, the collective market capitalization of Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Google owner Alphabet (GOOGL), and Facebook...

 

Sunday, August 23, 2020

The folks at Visual Capitalist to a great job with charts! Here is a great visual representation of the disconnect between the stock market and consumers. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE)...

 

Saturday, August 22, 2020

Wall Street via the S&P 500 vs. Main Street via Index of Consumer Sentiment As you can see from the Chart of the Day, the actions of the Federal Reserve have absolutely helped Wall Street and stock owners recovery. But that is a small...

 

Friday, August 21, 2020

Basket of 5 largest stocks in S&P 500 made new high yesterday; looking at returns since beginning of 2018, just those mega-cap names are +100%, while broader market is +25.6%, according to Liz Ann Sonders and Bloomberg. Stay Tuned,...

 

Thursday, August 20, 2020

In this ‘Great Experiment’ of Work From Home (WFH) certain cities are feeling the pinch from homeowners to begin the remote work reshuffle. I am looking at you San Fran! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor...

 

Wednesday, August 19, 2020

Price-to-Sales Ratios: Tesla: 13x Microsoft: 11x Facebook: 10x Netflix: 9.6x Twitter: 8.9x Apple: 7.4x Google: 6.6x Amazon: 5.0x GM: 0.3x Ford: 0.2x Data via @ycharts Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character...

 

Tuesday, August 18, 2020

The S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio now sits at highest since mid-2000. While you can’t fake price you can overestimate future earnings. Source: Liz Ann Sonders Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character...

 

Monday, August 17, 2020

Yes is sounds like an oxymoron but it happened last week. Last week Ball Corp. (BLL) priced $1.3 Billion of 10-Year Notes at a RECORD low yield of 2.875% – the lowest-ever for a US junk bond with a maturity of five years or...

 

Sunday, August 16, 2020

Last week was a prime example of this concept: High Beta stocks bounced +3.5% last week to down -23.2% YTD High Short Interest stocks bounced +2.6% last week to down -12.4% YTD Low Market Cap stocks bounced +2.5% last week to down -22...

 

Saturday, August 15, 2020

Below in the Chart of the Day is the price of Commodities versus the Dow Jones Industrial Average and commodities are as cheap as they have every been. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) |...

 

Friday, August 14, 2020

Look Away! My Chart of the Day looks at what is another terrible year for value stocks. As with most trends in finance, mean reversion will have its way – I just don’t know when! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...

 

Thursday, August 13, 2020

…Between US Stocks and International Stocks – II Not only have US stocks outperformed on a relative basis, but from a valuation perspective International stocks are trading near historic discounts versus US stocks. Stay...

 

Wednesday, August 12, 2020

…Between US Stocks and International Stocks As you can see in the Chart of the Day, International equities have underperformed their US counterparts for nearly a decade. This relative underperformance is now at extreme levels....

 

Tuesday, August 11, 2020

As you can see in the Chart of the Day, coming into 2020 the US Dollar looked to be historically overvalued based on Purchasing Power Parity of a basket of foreign currencies. Thanks to the Federal Reserve’s myriad stimulus...

 

Monday, August 10, 2020

In the Stat of the Day, Goldman Sachs highlights the “haves” and “have nots” in the market today: “In aggregate, FAAMG EPS grew by 2% year/year in 2Q compared with an aggregate decline of -38% for the...

 

Sunday, August 9, 2020

In the Chart of the Day, Apple’s market cap is 89% of the market cap of the Russell 2000 (small cap stock index): Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...

 

Saturday, August 8, 2020

The SEC is launching an investigation surrounding trading of Eastman Kodak Co’s (KODK) shares before and after it was announced that the government is loaning the company $765 million. The money will help Kodak manufacture drugs...

 

Friday, August 7, 2020

Restaurant reservations have been acting as a daily real-time gauge of the monthly consumer confidence readings. Stronger rebound in Europe vs North America. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation...

 

Thursday, August 6, 2020

At the end of last week, Fitch Ratings revised the U.S. Outlook to Negative to reflect the ongoing deterioration in the U.S. public finances and the absence of a credible fiscal consolidation plan. This is the latest in a long line of...

 

Wednesday, August 5, 2020

Not the ‘V-Shaped’ recovery seen in the Largest 5 companies in the S&P 500. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that...

 

Tuesday, August 4, 2020

The Top 5 vs. The Deadweight 495 Since 2010 Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of...

 

Monday, August 3, 2020

The Federal Reserve in 2019 had 1,707 “other officers,” making on average $250,000 a year, not counting their extremely generous benefits. “The top 113 earners among staff at the Federal Reserve’s Washington...

 

Sunday, August 2, 2020

No “V-shaped” recovery was even necessary! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be...

 

Saturday, August 1, 2020

I have mentioned in several posts the outperformance of a handful of megacap stocks. I also continue to read and hear of the growing disconnect between these few stocks and just about everything else. These sectors offer a glimpse into...

 

Friday, July 31, 2020

According to SoFi, stock market activity this year reveals that a company’s name may have a significant impact on its stock price. Companies with the words “technology” or “technologies” in their names...

 

Thursday, July 30, 2020

In my Chart of the Day, AMG provides an great visual of how diversified portfolios behave during bear markets. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...

 

Wednesday, July 29, 2020

Tightening lending standards at the exact time many small businesses and consumers need them. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember...

 

Tuesday, July 28, 2020

Professor Scott Galloway wins for Tweet of the Week: In 5 weeks Amazon added the entire value of the world’s largest firm by revenue — Walmart.Hasn’t Amazon reached a level of soft and economic power well beyond the...

 

Monday, July 27, 2020

Recovering. Not Recovered. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results....

 

Sunday, July 26, 2020

Recovering. Not Recovered. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results....

 

Saturday, July 25, 2020

Again! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of...

 

Friday, July 24, 2020

To dovetail on my entry yesterday, this Washington Post article expands to look at a wider range of industries. The picture is still not good. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Thursday, July 23, 2020

According to Yelp, more than half of restaurants temporarily closed are now permanently shuttered. As you can see from this chart from Johns Hopkins, as confirmed COVID cases grow, restaurant revenues decline: Stay Tuned, Disciplined &...

 

Wednesday, July 22, 2020

…If you are parents of kids “going” back to school in the fall: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past...

 

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell shares of IBM, just an illustration of the how the Wall Street machine works. IBM reported earnings last night and it was reported they had “better than expected earnings.” The...

 

Monday, July 20, 2020

If you EXCLUDE the Top 10 Stocks out of 500, the S&P 500 would be -7%: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance...

 

Sunday, July 19, 2020

We finally have clarification as to why 2020 is turning out the way it is: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past...

 

Saturday, July 18, 2020

This is not a political punch of any sort. As a matter of fact, the best investors I know are apolitical. This is data from Johns Hopkins and the COVID Tracking Project put together by Morgan Stanley. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient!...

 

Friday, July 17, 2020

As Lisa Abramowicz points out: “Moody’s “currently has no positive industry outlooks, the first time that has happened, and the outlook for North American business conditions remains broadly negative.”...

 

Thursday, July 16, 2020

Well in this case it is actually stagflation. This is when economic growth is SLOWING and inflation is RISING. U.S. Consumer Prices Climb by Most Since 2012 on Higher Gasoline Here is just a sample of items we NEED: Medical Care...

 

Wednesday, July 15, 2020

Whether they are local business or publicly traded entities they are facing the same challenges, especially as COVID cases hit their highest reported daily levels of ~71,000 in the US. On top of the demand problem is the debt problem....

 

Tuesday, July 14, 2020

The trend continues with the download of video conferencing and fitness apps, as well as buying groceries and good on-line! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT...

 

Monday, July 13, 2020

Needless to say with this earnings season set to be one of the worst in history, stock market valuations look…extended! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT...

 

Sunday, July 12, 2020

While Technology stocks have outperformed year-to-date and some stocks have exploded to the upside, investors are asking about a potential bubble. However, in looking at the Chart of the Day, Morgan Stanley notes the increase in tech...

 

Saturday, July 11, 2020

Hint: As expected – terrible! New York Statewide Local Sales Tax Collections – by Month as measured by year-over-year changes: March: -3%, April: -24%, May: -32% … Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...

 

Friday, July 10, 2020

As you can see in the Chart of the Day, the share of nonpayments/partial payments (32%) for housing (rent & mortgage payments) continues to grow each month. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation...

 

Thursday, July 9, 2020

This is actually good news for consumers and bad news for credit card companies. I guess this is what happens during a ‘shelter-in-place’ order! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation...

 

Wednesday, July 8, 2020

With the announcement from Lucky Brands earlier this week, we are at 26 retail bankruptcies year-to-date. This surpasses last year’s record count. And still six months of the year left to go. SOURCE: Brian McGough Stay Tuned,...

 

Tuesday, July 7, 2020

Permanent job losses are now rising at a pace consistent with the fastest pace seen during the Great Financial Crisis. Inclusive of June’s 4.8 million in job gains we are only 34% towards recovering the 22.1 million jobs lost....

 

Monday, July 6, 2020

Texas Sand Castle Contest Winner – 2019. As with most things in the Upside Down World the contest was cancelled this year. But still an apt image. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) |...

 

Sunday, July 5, 2020

One of the topics not discussed as much as it should be is the rising tension between the US and China and the real possibility of new cold war: The CCP’s insertion into Hong Kong independency and upcoming election; potential...

 

Saturday, July 4, 2020

First, what is a Cov-Lite Loan? According to Investopedia, a covenant-lite loan is a type of financing that is issued with fewer restrictions on the borrower and fewer protections for the lender. By contrast, traditional loans...

 

Friday, July 3, 2020

As you can see in the Chart of the Day, they continue to hit All-Time High’s in both absolute terms and relative to GDP. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT...

 

Wednesday, July 1, 2020

There is speculation about small, retail traders moving the market. While that is only part of the story, they have dramatically increased their activity so far this year: 2020 Q2 = 7,148,000 daily average revenue trades. 2020 Q1 = 5...

 

Monday, June 29, 2020

It happens to the best of us! In 1966, Warren Buffett bought 5% of Disney for $4 million. That position is worth $12 billion today A 3,000-bagger! Unfortunately, Warren sold that position for $6 million in 1967. Even the greatest...

 

Sunday, June 28, 2020

For all of you stock traders reading, here is a fantastic collection on checklists from various managers assembled by Jonathan Tepper. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Saturday, June 27, 2020

I am going to start to take this opportunity to share with my readers key passages from various books and white papers that come across my desk. Today’s entry is from the book The Biggest Bluff by Maria Konnikova: After spending...

 

Friday, June 26, 2020

Six months ago = $1.29 Today = $2.79 Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future...

 

Thursday, June 25, 2020

Yes there is a $1.7 Trillion outstanding in student loans; however, as you can see in the Chart of the Day, education does still matter. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Wednesday, June 24, 2020

@EpsilonTheory | Ben Hunt The “us” that COVID-19 is killing and the “us” that the Federal Reserve is keeping afloat are two completely different things. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor &...

 

Tuesday, June 23, 2020

AT&T Boss Retires With $274,000 a Month for LifeAlas, the stock price today — $30 — is actually lower than the $39 it was when Stephenson took over as chairman and CEO in 2007. But generous dividends have more than made up...

 

Monday, June 22, 2020

As you can see in the Chart of the Day, there has been a rebound in air travel through TSA gates, but not really a V-shaped recovery. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Sunday, June 21, 2020

As you can see from the Chart of the Day, US weekly filings of bankruptcies of mid-to-large companies is at the highest rate since the Global Financial Crisis. This chart does not even pick-up all of the small businesses that have...

 

Saturday, June 20, 2020

The FANG+ Index is back at a peak: Here is a breakdown of the FANG+ Index: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past...

 

Friday, June 19, 2020

Chart of the Day – Valuations Well this chart excludes Netflix: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance...

 

Thursday, June 18, 2020

Chart of the Day Returns of FAAANM: Facebook Alphabet Amazon Apple Netflix Microsoft Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past...

 

Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Here is an updated chart from Goldman Sachs: Back-to-Business vs. Stay-at-Home Percentage Change Year-over-Year for Week Ending June 17th: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Tuesday, June 16, 2020

According to a recent report 31% of investors at Fidelity between the ages of 65-69 sold all of their stocks between February and May. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Monday, June 15, 2020

In the Headlines/Chart of the Day, I still can’t fathom who would put their own money into buying stocks of bankrupt companies when historically, the recovery rates are near zero! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...

 

Sunday, June 14, 2020

Thought of the Day “There is scarcely an instance of a man who has made a fortune by speculation and kept it.” ~Andrew Carnegie Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Saturday, June 13, 2020

In the Chart of the Day, I continue with the retail trading and speculation that has taken the place of sports betting during this market rally. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R =...

 

Friday, June 12, 2020

Bankrupt Hertz Wants to Sell Up to $1 Billion in New Shares Bankrupt Hertz is now trying to put in place a $1 billion at-the-market equity offering to sell its WORTHLESS stock to investors bagholders to enhance recovery for lenders....

 

Thursday, June 11, 2020

From a recent Wall Street Journal article: Dave Portnoy, founder of Barstool Sports, has turned to day trading. “Stocks only go up, this is the easiest game I’ve been part of!” he said in a video on June 4th, with...

 

Wednesday, June 10, 2020

Should we tell these retail traders that when FAANG is a acronym of several leading technology stocks not Fangdd Network Group (DUO) a Chinese real estate firm that was up 389% yesterday. Whoever bought the stock at that price is now...

 

Tuesday, June 9, 2020

At the end of trading yesterday there were 141,973 accounts on the Robinhood stock trading app holding Hertz (HTZ) that has filed for bankruptcy protection. Yet the stock is up over 650% since that announcement. The Robinhood User...

 

Monday, June 8, 2020

In the Chart of the Day, Britain has gone a record two months without burning coal, the longest the dirtiest fossil fuel hasn’t been used for power since the start of the Industrial Revolution. For those history buffs, I am sure...

 

Sunday, June 7, 2020

A report from researchers at Arizona State and Old Dominion universities found that tax collections will fall by more than 30% in at least 10 American states due to Covid-19. On average, states will suffer a 20% decline in tax revenue....

 

Saturday, June 6, 2020

The Robinhood app has allowed investors traders to buy and sell stocks and options for no commission off of their easy-to-use client application. Well you have to make money somehow. Robinhood sells their order flow to outside services...

 

Friday, June 5, 2020

Not quite a record number of profit-less small cap companies but still a discouraging data point. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease...

 

Thursday, June 4, 2020

Hint: The US is the MOST Expensive Stock Market in the World Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be...

 

Wednesday, June 3, 2020

Hint: Most Expensive Ever Although this is based on forward estimates which can be unpredictable, especially this year! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...

 

Tuesday, June 2, 2020

A main theme this year is growing divergences: whether between high and low-income families or stronger and weaker companies. In stocks, this translates as a 16% gain for Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft versus a 12%...

 

Monday, June 1, 2020

While history doesn’t repeat it rhymes. However, this is 2020 so who knows! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past...

 

Sunday, May 31, 2020

% of Stocks Trading > Average Analyst Price Target via Strategas 2020: 61% 2019: 26% 2018: 19% 2017: 29% 2016: 28% 2015: 25% 2014: 35% 2013: 39% 2012: 18% 2011: 21% 2010: 39% 2009: 46% 2008: 22% 2007: 30% 2006: 32% 2005: 30% 2004:...

 

Saturday, May 30, 2020

During the 1987 “Portfolio Insurance” Crash: “S&P futures lost 28% on 19-Oct-1987 [Friday close of 281.50 to Monday’s close of 203]. That day, 2210 trades were reported to the tape – today, that number...

 

Friday, May 29, 2020

Hint: Liquidity Can’t Overcome Insolvency The S&P downgrade/upgrade ratio on levered loans hit 43.2! That’s not a percentage. That’s 43.2 downgrades for 1 upgrade. The peak during eh Global Financial Crisis of 2008...

 

Thursday, May 28, 2020

“We’re only down 15% from the all-time high of February 19, and it seems to me that the world is more than 15% screwed up.” ~Howard Marks Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation...

 

Wednesday, May 27, 2020

According to the latest research from Deutsche Bank, the Bank of Japan owns almost 80% of all ETFs domiciled in Japan. Is the US Federal Reserve heading in this direction? Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor &...

 

Tuesday, May 26, 2020

Now this is on the heels of China removing their guidance for GDP – even though much of the world knows they make up the numbers. The below heatmap of the real-time Chinese economy actually shows some green shoots. However, we...

 

Monday, May 25, 2020

As of a few weeks ago the Federal Reserve started buying bond exchange traded funds (ETF’s). They Fed >$3 billion in these bond ETFs listed below in May. The junk bond ETF holdings (JNK) are in such companies as Hertz, JC...

 

Sunday, May 24, 2020

As you can see stock market leadership and performance has been been focused on six stocks over the last five years: Facebook Apple Alphabet Amazon Netflix Microsoft Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character...

 

Saturday, May 23, 2020

Talk about making money while you sleep. Since the end of March of this year, you would have made dramatically more money if you bought at the close and sold at the open the next day. If you go back 27 years it is virtually the same...

 

Friday, May 22, 2020

…Do the following: Provide solvency for consumers and businesses Provide demand for goods and services Print jobs Print cash flows Yes they can provide liquidity and massive amounts, but there is a limit to what they can do. And...

 

Thursday, May 21, 2020

Unprecedented Policy Support Over the past two months, the Federal Reserve’s metamorphosis from the traditional and passive ‘lender of last resort to today’s central planning leviathan has been on full display. Stay...

 

Wednesday, May 20, 2020

Yesterday, scientists published a study showing that daily global greenhouse gas emissions dropped by 17% between January and April. The sharp decrease was linked to the pandemic’s stay-at-home orders, which have forced millions...

 

Tuesday, May 19, 2020

“All but one of the seven postwar recessionary bear markets have seen double-digit declines in S&P 500 Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) EPS from their respective cycle peaks to their respective bear market trough dates.”...

 

Monday, May 18, 2020

Hint: Cliff => Mountain First quarter earnings were just reported and it showed a loss of ~ 8%. This is only incorporating two-three weeks of COVID-19 shutdowns. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character...

 

Sunday, May 17, 2020

The Hedgeye Cartoon of the Day says it all: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of...

 

Saturday, May 16, 2020

Hint: Cliff Diving! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different...

 

Friday, May 15, 2020

These are: Facebook Amazon Apple Alphabet Microsoft The Big 5 (FAAAM) make up well over 40% of NASDAQ (QQQ) and over 20% of S&P 500 (SPY). The rest of the US stock universe, including the equal-weight S&P 500, has sagged YTD while...

 

Thursday, May 14, 2020

Within Income & Wealth In The US Income Growth Wealth Accumulation Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may...

 

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Between the S&P 500 Prices and the S&P 500 Earnings Estimates. Either Earnings Estimates are about to spike or the S&P 500 is about to pike. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

In Europe: Flat-Lined, Except For Berlin In the US: An Uptick Off All-Time Lows Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past...

 

Monday, May 11, 2020

Hint: We need a new letter. While it is still earlier and only a few states are slowly relaxing stay-at-home mandates, it will take time to get back to pre-Covid-19 levels. The Chart of the Day looks to three states and the Open Table...

 

Sunday, May 10, 2020

 

Saturday, May 9, 2020

Hint: Falling Off A Cliff In a report by Renaissance Capital, they noted the 2020 US IPO market just experienced its slowest March and April in nearly a decade, “as volatility essentially shut the IPO window.” It said only...

 

Friday, May 8, 2020

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities listed just a Fun Fact Friday: Tesla has a market capitalization of $145 Billion. The following companies have a combined market cap of $150 Billion: VW Group...

 

Thursday, May 7, 2020

It appears that similar to previous surges in the size of global central bank balance sheets, central banks have the backs of stock investors – again! The Great Wealth Transfer continues! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM}...

 

Wednesday, May 6, 2020

Hint: Worst Month-over-Month Decline Ever Recorded No wonder there is ~$841 BILLION in mortgage loans in foreberance. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...

 

Tuesday, May 5, 2020

ACTUAL EARNINGS The US is catching up to the rest of the world. So far this quarter, EPS for S&P 500 companies is -8.9% with 60% of companies reported. But remember, COVID-19 really only effected the last 2-4 weeks of the quarter....

 

Monday, May 4, 2020

It appears – if history is a guide – we are set for a period of deflation. As you can see in the Chart of the Day, Core CPI usually tracks US Real GDP with a six month lag. If that trend holds, we should see Core CPI...

 

Sunday, May 3, 2020

Hint: Less Bad As you can see in New York City both Driving and Walking are improving. However, Transit across the board continues to languish. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R =...

 

Saturday, May 2, 2020

This latest Sports Illustrated cover says it all. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative...

 

Friday, May 1, 2020

The Federal Reserve bought more Treasury securities in the past 6 WEEKS than the whole foreign sector bought in the past 6 YEARS. They have purchased a total of $2 Trillion since January. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...

 

Thursday, April 30, 2020

Hint: Terrible On the heels of my earlier note on perverse incentives regarding the CARES Act and supplemental jobless benefits, we get the usual Thursday morning update on initial jobless claims. There are 30 million people –...

 

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

The CARES Act has disincentivized employees from going back to work. With the enhanced unemployment benefits of an additional $600 per week as part of the CARES Act on top of standard weekly unemployment benefits creates a run-rate of...

 

Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Hint: No V-Shaped Recovery Predicted If company managements thought COVID-19 was temporary and were they confident in future revenue streams coming back immediately, secondary effects such as Planned CapEx would not still be falling...

 

Monday, April 27, 2020

Again Hint: As you can imagine. Research says that in just over three weeks the world will run out of space to store oil at this pace of production. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S +...

 

Sunday, April 26, 2020

Robinhood account users are at it again. This time buying oil. The pink line is the price and the green line are the number of Robinhood app users holding USO. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation...

 

Saturday, April 25, 2020

Sisyphus & Ground Hog Day Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results....

 

Friday, April 24, 2020

Hint: No “V-Shaped” Recovery In this new normal it will take time to acclimate to this environment. Yes this is a poll and could be skewed but ask yourself these questions. Reopening the economy is just the start and you...

 

Thursday, April 23, 2020

Hint: Still Historic After today’s Initial Jobless Claims report, total employment is back to 1998 levels. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...

 

Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Today marks the 50th anniversary of Earth Day. With that, here are some stats on those ubiquitous plastic store bags. Plastic bags start out as fossil fuels and end up as deadly waste in landfills and the ocean. Birds often mistake...

 

Tuesday, April 21, 2020

Hint: Major Declines Across The Globe A survey by IATA in April shows that 60% of passengers will be willing to travel 1 to 2 months after the lock down while 40% will delay travelling by 6 months or more. One benefit of the lock down...

 

Monday, April 20, 2020

Another Record As you can see from the Chart of the Day, the Top 5 companies in the S&P 500 have NEVER accounted for this much of the index. Just like income inequality, we are seeing FAAAM (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet &...

 

Sunday, April 19, 2020

Disney Edition Last week Disney announced they will stop paying 100,000 workers, roughly half its workforce. This will save the company $500 million a month. However, they will also take actions to protect executive bonus schemes and...

 

Saturday, April 18, 2020

Shake Shak Edition The Small Business Association’s (SBA) Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) that was part of the CARES Act was intended for “small businesses” not publicly traded companies like that already have...

 

Friday, April 17, 2020

Hint: See cartoon appended below. Here are the numbers: Total jobs created since Great Recession: 22,088,000. In one month, 10 years of job creation wiped out…as ~21,500,000 Americans have filed for first time unemployment...

 

Thursday, April 16, 2020

Hint: As expected since I personally haven’t driven my car more than a few miles in the last four plus weeks. Per the EIA, US fuel demand falls to LOWEST LEVEL EVER in weekly data. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...

 

Wednesday, April 15, 2020

Hint: Not improving. According to Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity, the market seems to be in a state of suspended animation, with price moving in the opposite direction from fundamentals. Economic data and earnings are in free fall, but the...

 

Tuesday, April 14, 2020

Hint: Not good: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types...

 

Monday, April 13, 2020

Hint: As expected: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different...

 

Sunday, April 12, 2020

Hint: Not Good. Hint #2: Earnings were slowing before COVID-19 began wreaking its cataclysmic havoc. According to Bloomberg: 36% of companies in the Russell 2000 had negative pre-tax income. 27% of S&P 500 companies with a market cap...

 

Saturday, April 11, 2020

Hint: Not Good! Second Hint: It was tracking down 25% prior to California issuing the countries first stay-at-home order on March 19th. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Friday, April 10, 2020

I will just leave you with the Chart of the Day: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative...

 

Thursday, April 9, 2020

Volatility records are being SHATTERED: 22 days in the past 7 weeks have seen the S&P move more than +/- 3%. The previous records were – not surprising – in October 1932 and November 2008. In those 2 cases, the S&P staged...

 

Tuesday, April 7, 2020

While there is a rally in the stock markets, it is not because of the current jobs situation. As you can see in the Chart of the Day, in just two weeks, ~47% of the job gains created during the record employment expansion are gone....

 

Monday, April 6, 2020

Boeing announced today that it is restructuring its workforce by offering voluntary layoffs, early retirement packages and cutting jobs. Of course this is COVID-19 related; however, this is also after Boeing: Gave the CEO it fired over...

 

Sunday, April 5, 2020

Hint: Slowing before the official shutdown. OpenTable bookings had declined 70% before restaurant closures. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...

 

Saturday, April 4, 2020

To paraphrase an old Wall Street saying: I’ve never bought at the exact low or sold at the exact high, unless it was by accident. Anyone who claims the ability to do so is either a liar or very lucky. Just like I advise with CNBC...

 

Friday, April 3, 2020

Consumers are paying higher credit card interest than they were 20 years ago despite rates being pancaked back to 0% by the Fed. They have to make money as cross-border transactions and volumes have cratered globally over the past six...

 

Thursday, April 2, 2020

According to a Bloomberg article, Whiting Petroleum Corp.’s board approved $14.6 million in cash bonuses for top executives days before the shale oil producer filed for bankruptcy. But the executives agreed to forgo equity...

 

Wednesday, April 1, 2020

I am glad March and the first quarter are behind us. We just ended the worst quarter since 2008 and the worst 1st quarter in the history of the markets. We experienced the fastest and largest decline into a bear market from all-time...

 

Tuesday, March 31, 2020

In my most recent blog I mentioned the rush for cash by US corporations. Well it is not so easy for small business owners. According to Womply and AARP, 55% of small businesses could not survive a 3 month shutdown of the economy. This...

 

Monday, March 30, 2020

It is no surprise that large corporations have been rushing to husband any sources of cash due to the global economic shutdown. Since this is an unprecedented situation it is difficult to model outcomes. Therefore, companies are...

 

Sunday, March 29, 2020

“It feels like strapping on a flak jacket and jumping on hand grenades going off every day,” said the head of one US hedge fund. “And it feels like I’ve lost some body parts.” STOP This was the recurring...

 

Saturday, March 28, 2020

…Bear Market Bounces – II This Chart of the Day shows previous bear markets and the largest bear market bounces within each: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Friday, March 27, 2020

…Bear Market Bounces Bear markets are often punctuated with short and sharp bounces higher before resuming their trend lower. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT...

 

Thursday, March 26, 2020

I hope but not likely. The Economist ran two covers near the all-time high and then near the current lows. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...

 

Thursday, March 26, 2020

Negative yields land on US shores for just the second time ever (2015) in a massive flight to quality assets. Even with the second consecutive day of positive gains (first time since early February), the 1- and 3-month US Treasury...

 

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

On Tuesday the S&P 500 +9.4% making it one of the Top 10 best days ever. However, most best days come along side the largest down days in a phenomenon called volatility clustering. This is not necessarily the sign of a bottom as you...

 

Monday, March 23, 2020

As the Fed holds their 3rd Emergency Meeting and announces a slew of new programs to alleviate stress in the bond markets, Congress is doing what it does best. Here are two pictures of the current situation: The first chart is the...

 

Sunday, March 22, 2020

You know its bad when a basic 60/40 portfolio is in a bear market in less than one month. The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBIAX) is a 60% Stock and 40% Bond mutual fund. Since February 20th to Friday March 20th it is -21.69%! Stay...

 

Saturday, March 21, 2020

As a follow-up to my entry from yesterday, here is my Chart of the Day: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance...

 

Friday, March 20, 2020

THEY. SOLD. THEIR. STOCK. By David Leonhardt On Jan. 24, Richard Burr, a Republican senator from North Carolina, attended a private Senate briefing from senior government scientists about the seriousness of the coronavirus. Kelly...

 

Thursday, March 19, 2020

The main reason for diversification is that you want to own various investments that will act differently during market environments. For example, you own bonds to provide income and diversify. However, during the last month of trading...

 

Wednesday, March 18, 2020

Just a few Facts of the Day to remind you of the history we just experienced: The S&P 500 moved by over 9% over three straight days. Over 18 trading days, the S&P 500 lost 29.5%. In one six-day stretch, the S&P 500 fell 20.7%....

 

Tuesday, March 17, 2020

By now I am sure you have heard directly from someone you know or read a story of the unimaginable effect COVID-19 has had on small business owners. In my Chart of the Day, Goldman Sachs outlines the potential effect of the slowing...

 

Monday, March 16, 2020

Since 2010, the top 4 US airline companies bought back $45 BILLION of their own stock. Now they are asking for a $50 BILLION bailout. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Sunday, March 15, 2020

1. HANDS – Wash Then Often 2. ELBOW – Cough Into It 3. FACE – Don’t Touch It 4. FEET – Stay More Than 3 Feet Apart 5. SICK – Stay Home. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor &...

 

Saturday, March 14, 2020

Those were the daily returns of the US stock market last week. This is not normal. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past...

 

Friday, March 13, 2020

…About My Chart of the Day We just experienced the fastest 20% drawdown EVER. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past...

 

Thursday, March 12, 2020

On this historic day, I wanted to share this note from one of the best investors of his generation. “Everyone has the brain power to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.” ~Peter Lynch If you can’t sleep...

 

Wednesday, March 11, 2020

We have lived through history over the past three weeks. In this Chart of the Day, you can see how we shape up in terms of calendar year returns going back to 1987 and the intra-year decline. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM}...

 

Tuesday, March 10, 2020

“Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.” ~Winston Churchill | Former British Prime Minister Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) |...

 

Monday, March 9, 2020

Short, Sharp & Scary In my Chart of the Day from Bespoke Investments, they outline annual drawdowns annually dating back to 1928. After trading today, we have exceeded the median drawdown. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...

 

Sunday, March 8, 2020

While this is a true statement, it is important to gauge your risk tolerance. Can you emotionally handle losing between 24-37% of your investment funds? Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) |...

 

Saturday, March 7, 2020

If history is any indication we may see high yield bonds become higher yielding bonds as credit conditions worsen. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...

 

Friday, March 6, 2020

Is your meth contaminated with coronavirus? This Florida police department will test it for free. And while you are there they will take your measurements to see what size jumpsuit you may need? Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM}...

 

Thursday, March 5, 2020

Not good! The index of the largest European bank stocks are -25% in 13 days. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past...

 

Wednesday, March 4, 2020

As you can see in the Chart of the Day, car sales in China were slogging through due to an economic slowdown. Then they fell off a cliff due to the coronavirus. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation...

 

Tuesday, March 3, 2020

In the Cartoon of the Day, Bob Rich pinpoints why the Federal Reserve Chairman cut interest rates by 50 basis points in between meetings this morning. Between equity markets, high yield/levered loan markets and the President, he was...

 

Monday, March 2, 2020

There is a mantra on Wall Street to follow the actions in the bond market over the stock market as bonds historically have done a better job at sniffing out changes in underlying economic fundamentals. In the Chart of the Day, you can...

 

Sunday, March 1, 2020

There is one reason to buy: you feel that your investment will go up in value. However, there are many reasons to sell: Although for the long-term investor, this entry could be entitled Reasons to Buy! Stay Tuned, Disciplined &...

 

Saturday, February 29, 2020

Global Bond Yields With the recent Coronavirus catalyst forcing a flight to safety, fully 23% of all bonds trading in the world have a negative yield. This is ~$14 TRILLION in the value of global bonds with negative yields. Stay Tuned,...

 

Friday, February 28, 2020

Here’s how much money you need to be among the richest 10% of people in the world via @CNBCMakeIt: $93,170. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...

 

Thursday, February 27, 2020

This is not to downplay this strain of the coronavirus but is to serve an historical perspective and frame the recent bout of volatility: @ReformedBroker 17,000 Americans died of H1N1 in 2009, but it barely registered on Wall Street...

 

Wednesday, February 26, 2020

This is one way to try and attempt to stop the global economies and stock market from going down: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease...

 

Tuesday, February 25, 2020

When stocks AND gold go down together! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future...

 

Monday, February 24, 2020

This is an interesting Chart of the Day that highlights the increase in average age for new CEO hires. Another sign of the graying of America. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Sunday, February 23, 2020

Has the ‘financial world’ has gone mad? The Financial Times reported last week that sub-1% yielding Greek and Italian 10-year government bonds are now considered safe havens! As a point of reference the US 10-year...

 

Saturday, February 22, 2020

In the Chart of the Day, we take a gander at asset bubbles over the past 40 years. This is based on asset price appreciation. Clearly, valuation is in the eye of the buyer. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor &...

 

Friday, February 21, 2020

According to the Chart of the Day from @sentimentrader, the NASDAQ 100’s 20-day Moving Average has gone up 88 DAYS IN A ROW. This is the most extreme in history. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character...

 

Thursday, February 20, 2020

In my Chart of the Day, I continue on the path of dissecting corporate earnings growth. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that...

 

Wednesday, February 19, 2020

For anyone that wants to gripe about the concentration of the U.S. market (like me here), here’s some context: The US stock market indices in comparison to the rest of the world are not as concentrated. Stay Tuned, Disciplined &...

 

Tuesday, February 18, 2020

In the Chart of the Day, the Pew Research Center outlines how only the Highest Quintile and the Top 5% are the only groups to have gained wealth since the Global Financial Crisis. Again, all of the maneuvers by Global Central Banks has...

 

Monday, February 17, 2020

So yesterday we got confirmation that the ECB bought all € tranches of LVMH’s jumbo note! This jumbo bond deal was issued to fund the purchase of Tiffany (TIF). Remember that back in December, four Italian Lega MEPs asked...

 

Sunday, February 16, 2020

Exclude the Big 5 (Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon and Facebook) based on market capitalization, S&P 500 earnings were down 7.5% in the 4th quarter of 2019 per SocGen. As you can also see in the Chart of the Day, the reported...

 

Saturday, February 15, 2020

We can do better than this: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results....

 

Friday, February 14, 2020

@HedgeyeDDale “Remember, most investors’ conviction levels are most highly correlated with the quality of the narratives they’ve concocted in their head, rather than the rising or falling probabilities of fundamental...

 

Thursday, February 13, 2020

Strange actions are afoot again in the bond market. Per Barron’s: Case in point: the return of particularly speculative paper called payment-in-kind, or PIK, securities. Instead of paying interest in cash, the borrower simply...

 

Wednesday, February 12, 2020

“Stock markets are strongest when they are broad, and weakest when they are narrow.” ~Bob Farrell Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...

 

Tuesday, February 11, 2020

Central Banks providing liquidity is nothing new. The Chart of the Day outlines the 12-month Rate of Change dating back to 1969. As you can see over the past 12 months the Fed provided the largest liquidity boost in history. Result?...

 

Monday, February 10, 2020

Most of the time. In my Charts of the Day, we see that most endowments regardless of size fail to beat the standard 60/40 model over the long-term. As Ben Carlson outlines in his article, most of the times simple is better than complex...

 

Sunday, February 9, 2020

From Seth Klarman – January 2020 “How ought one navigate an environment such as today’s? With great patience and strict discipline. Every position in the portfolio must offer the prospect of compelling rewards for the...

 

Saturday, February 8, 2020

According to a new report from research firm Waste Business Journal (yes I subscribe), the United States is estimated to have 18 years of remaining landfill capacity left in 2020. The need for cost-effective, sustainable and...

 

Friday, February 7, 2020

Unbelievable update on this Chart of the Day. High P/E stocks beat Low P/E by MORE in the last 10 years than they did in the 10 years to the Dot.com. In short, this comes down to owing Financials & Healthcare VS. Technology and...

 

Thursday, February 6, 2020

It only costs $10,000 to purchase a Chick-fil-A franchise, but here is the rub: According to Chick-fil-A, 60,000 people apply to be operators every year — and only ~80 are selected. With a 0.13% acceptance rate, it’s harder...

 

Wednesday, February 5, 2020

This Chart of the Day is not intended to be direct investment advice, but an update on global stock yields: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...

 

Tuesday, February 4, 2020

In my Chart of the Day, we see Behavioral Investing in one chart. This is a chart from Robinhood, which is an app that let’s you transact in stocks. As the price of Tesla climbs so do the number of new buyers of the stock. In...

 

Monday, February 3, 2020

Per Goldman Sachs: The S&P 500 market capitalization is currently concentrated in its five largest stocks to a degree not witnessed since the peak of the Tech bubble. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Facebook collectively account...

 

Sunday, February 2, 2020

This special football edition of Chart of the Day is from Google Trends. It monitored the most searched terms by state leading up to last year’s Super Bowl. My wife makes the best buffalo chicken dip. Stay Tuned, Disciplined &...

 

Saturday, February 1, 2020

With volatility rearing its head this past week, here is one of my favorite charts. It outlines how in the near-term investments have a wide range of outcomes. However, over a truly long-term time frame the volatility of returns is...

 

Friday, January 31, 2020

An advance copy of the Budweiser Super Bowl commercial… Budweiser ✔@budweiserusa America, look beyond the labels. You might be surprised by what you find.Watch Budweiser’s #SuperBowlLIV commercial now. #ThisBudsForYou 46...

 

Thursday, January 30, 2020

SARS broke out in 2002; MERS spread across the world in 2012. Late in 2019, a third deadly coronavirus began to radiate out from Wuhan, a city of 11 million: 2019-nCoV. Six to eight weeks after the outbreak is believed to have begun,...

 

Wednesday, January 29, 2020

In 2003, when the SARS outbreak struck China, the nation accounted for 4.3 percent of world economic output. Last year, it was 16.3 percent, so the coronavirus outbreak and subsequent reaction MAY have world-impacting economic effects...

 

Tuesday, January 28, 2020

After 71 relatively calm trading days, the S&P 500 finally closed with a move bigger than 1% on Monday. Although this is one of the longest streaks in history, it is quite interesting that we’ve seen a cluster of long streaks...

 

Monday, January 27, 2020

Can you guess how many US citizens have died from the flu this season? New data from the CDC released on Friday estimates that so far this season, at least 6.4 million people have caught the flu, 55,000 people have been hospitalized...

 

Sunday, January 26, 2020

A recent Wall Street Journal article outlined a potential new tool for the Federal Reserve to utilize: A cap on US Treasury yields! Huh?!?! Don’t worry about the savers – they may never earn more than 3% on cash again. I...

 

Saturday, January 25, 2020

“Today 50 percent of the investment-grade market is rated BBB, and in 2007 it was 35 percent,” Scott Minerd noted in a letter to clients this week. “More specifically, about 8 percent of the investment-grade market...

 

Friday, January 24, 2020

They typically are not good for the US stock market. However, I would not and do not put any stock into this regarding the management of client portfolios. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation...

 

Thursday, January 23, 2020

This is a great Thought Experiment from Meb Faber who has done extensive research on valuations across countries. Which of the below investment options in the chart would you choose to invest in today? Most would opt for the...

 

Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Presented without comment: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results....

 

Tuesday, January 21, 2020

This is great Chart of the Day from The New York Times. It outlines why building models isn’t the hardest part. It is having the discipline to follow the models and actually utilize them. Case in point, football. You can see what...

 

Monday, January 20, 2020

This is one of my favorite quotes and dovetails beautifully into The Investor & Character Equation: “The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of...

 

Sunday, January 19, 2020

Not just the San Francisco 49ers and their run to the Super Bowl but also the stock market of late. As you can see in my Chart of the Day, over 87% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day moving average. What does that mean?...

 

Saturday, January 18, 2020

In the Chart of the Day (O’Shaughnessy Asset Management), you can see that historically going back to 1963, the Top 20% of stocks have historically represented roughly 80% of Market Capitalization and Sales. Stay Tuned,...

 

Friday, January 17, 2020

Aggregated from JUST Capital: WORKERSDelta plans to pay out $1.6 billion in profit sharing to its employees this year, marking the 6th year it has paid more than $1 billion back to its workers. – Kavya Vaghul Taco Bell, a Yum...

 

Thursday, January 16, 2020

The S&P 500 is on one of its longest streaks without a 1% daily move in the past five decades, highlighting how the latest leg of the stock-market rally has been a gradual climb rather than a euphoric surge. The broad equity gauge...

 

Wednesday, January 15, 2020

With the continued move higher across most asset classes, overconfidence is a major risk for investors. When investing seems easy, please be reminded it is not. It can continue uninterrupted for some time, but reversion to the mean is...

 

Tuesday, January 14, 2020

It should come as no surprise that when you chronically raise income and property taxes you will have a groundswell of movement to lower tax areas. Case in point. Over the past decade we have seen residents move from such states to...

 

Monday, January 13, 2020

This is not a solicitation to buy or sell any security! This is from @DKThomp regarding the upcoming IPO of mattress company Casper. This appears to be Casper’s business: Buy mattress at $400. Sell at $1,000. Refund/return 20% of...

 

Sunday, January 12, 2020

“It is impossible to produce superior performance unless you do something different from the majority.” ~John Templeton Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT...

 

Saturday, January 11, 2020

So exclaimed a headline in Barron’s. It is as if they found the key to the markets. As they outlined: A week does not a year make, but it may offer some clues as to where the market will end 2020. History shows that the S&P 500...

 

Friday, January 10, 2020

In my Chart of the Day we examining how the typical Family Offices allocates their assets. The average household size in this study is $1.2 billion. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S +...

 

Thursday, January 9, 2020

Sales! Revenue generated in past decade: Apple = $1.9 trillion (Largest Driver of S&P 500 Returns Last Decade) Samsung = $1.8 trillion Amazon = $1.2 trillion (3rd Largest Driver of S&P 500 Returns) IBM = $898 billion Microsoft = $888...

 

Wednesday, January 8, 2020

Want to know what drove returns in the S&P 500 in 2019 and for the last decade? Take a look at my Chart of the Day and you won’t be surprised: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S +...

 

Tuesday, January 7, 2020

The Bank of England has data on its balance sheet and GDP back to 1700. So how “extraordinary” has central bank activity been the last 10-years Consider the Chart of the Day: All global Central Banks have done something...

 

Monday, January 6, 2020

CNBC looked back at the market reactions of the last 20 Middle East crises and to no surprise the big winner was Oil: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...

 

Sunday, January 5, 2020

As Warren Buffet reminds us: “Forecasts usually tell us more of the forecaster than of the future.” Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...

 

Saturday, January 4, 2020

I told you there would be more! These are been provided by RP Seawright: There always seems to be a bull market in bearish predictions – predictions that are often spectacularly wrong. Note the following huge errors during the...

 

Friday, January 3, 2020

…Predict Often and Don’t Use a Date It is that time of year when we get everyone’s 2020 outlook. I will save you your most precious commodity which is time: ignore most if not all of them. Here is a sample and there...

 

Thursday, January 2, 2020

Congratulations! The Effective Yield on US Corporate BBB-rated bonds have never been lower, as you can see in the Chart of the Day. This does not bode well for future bond returns as historically you earn a similar rate of return as...

 

Wednesday, January 1, 2020

Here is a great list from Vala Afshar to start the new year: Don’t be impressed by: Money Job title Appearances Experience Affiliations Imitation Big words Be impressed by: Kindness Trustworthiness Unselfish generosity Humility...

 

Tuesday, December 31, 2019

Capitalists Without Capital Are Ruling Capitalism “40% of public stocks quoted in US have negative tangible book value, meaning that their tangible assets aren’t worth enough to repay all their debt. Two decades ago, this...

 

Monday, December 30, 2019

No caption necessary! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different...

 

Sunday, December 29, 2019

…When Measured In Points As you can see in the Chart of the Day, a 1,000 point move when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was at 1,000 equates to a 100% return. However, a 1,000 point move when the DJIA starts at 19,000...

 

Saturday, December 28, 2019

This Chart of the Day from dshort.com says it all: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative...

 

Friday, December 27, 2019

Student loans may be a liability on the consumer balance sheet, but they constitute an asset for Uncle Sam. Just how big? It’s about 50.7% of the total Federal assets. This is 10.8 times larger than the 4.7% for the Total...

 

Thursday, December 26, 2019

What line item below is the largest asset in Uncle Sam’s financial accounts? A) U.S. Official Reserve Assets B) Total Mortgages C) Taxes Receivable D) Student Loans The correct answer, as of the latest quarterly data, is …...

 

Wednesday, December 25, 2019

To all of my readers who celebrate Christmas, I wish you a wonderful day filled with family and friends! To those who don’t celebrate Christmas, I wish you a day of rest and relaxation! To all of you, the markets will reopen...

 

Tuesday, December 24, 2019

Easy! Global Central Banks around the globe continued easing monetary policy: Fed: easing ECB: easing BOE: easing BOJ: easing SNB: easing Denmark: easing Australia: easing Brazil: easing Russia: easing India: easing China: easing...

 

Monday, December 23, 2019

If you are a reader of this blog you know that I am keen on sustainability. I will go so far as to say so is the county of France. According to a recent article from Bloomberg, France is set to impose a $22,240 Pollution Tax on SUVs...

 

Sunday, December 22, 2019

Royal Dutch Shell writes down up to $2.3 billion on weaker economic outlook on a day the US stock market hit an all-time high, according to a recent article in Reuters. This follows rivals Chevron, BP, Equinor, and Spain’s Repsol...

 

Saturday, December 21, 2019

“By the time Boomers had reached a median age of 35, they collectively owned 21% of the nation’s wealth—versus just 8% for Gen-Xers at age 35 and maybe even less for Millennials when they reach that age.” ~Neil...

 

Friday, December 20, 2019

Once again, the best performing equity market this year was Venezuela with a more modest GAIN of 3,667%. Unfortunately, when converted to US dollars that becomes a LOSS of ~50%, making it the worst performing market, followed by...

 

Thursday, December 19, 2019

While we are still waiting on the finalization of Phase I, I want to look back on the continued nonsense of how many times we were ‘close’ to a deal. The President probably has three more months of gaming the stock market...

 

Wednesday, December 18, 2019

Via @EconomPic Annualized returns for the 35 years ending yesterday (12/17/1984 – 12/17/2019): Russell 1000 Growth: 11.34% Russell 1000 Value: 11.21% On 12/17/1984: #1 movie was Beverly Hills Cop #1 single was Out of Touch by...

 

Tuesday, December 17, 2019

As you can see in my Chart of the Day, junk bonds are now paying the least extra yield over investment-grade bonds of the same maturity since November 2018. And that was when the junk bond market had no issuance and no liquidity due to...

 

Monday, December 16, 2019

In my Chart of the Day, Dan Rasmussen highlights how Deep-value portfolios of any size in 2019 were about 26% behind the most expensive decile of the market, with the smaller half of deep value performing even worse. He also end his...

 

Sunday, December 15, 2019

Scan this list and if you hold any of these strategies please contact your advisor ASAP! You can buy an S&P 500 ETF with an expense ratio of 0.04% and do it for no commissions! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor &...

 

Saturday, December 14, 2019

After posting this chart yesterday, I found this Stat of the Day to share. The S&P 500 is now very tail heavy, as the 10 largest members represent a quarter of the index. That level of concentration in momentum stocks is similar to the...

 

Friday, December 13, 2019

As you can see in my Chart of the Day, we are seeing a record divergence between the price movement in the S&P 500 and corporate profits. Over a long period of time you can see that earning drive stock market returns. However, we are...

 

Thursday, December 12, 2019

This gap will close eventually. Either by investors buying CCC bonds and catching-up or BB bonds selling off and catching-down. What is interesting to note is that this flare-up started around the same time as the issues in the Repo...

 

Wednesday, December 11, 2019

US Investment Grade Corporate bond market duration has never been longer – ever. With interest rates near all-time lows it makes sense that corporations have accessed the debt market with low coupons and longer maturities. Just...

 

Tuesday, December 10, 2019

Did Millenials really buy Berkshire Hathaway stock or were they gifted shares? The Chart of the Day outlines the Top 10 equity holdings as percentage of assets held in equities across all generations, according to a Schwab report: Stay...

 

Monday, December 9, 2019

Based off of my Fact of the Day regarding this being the first decade in modern history without a “recession,” it is worth mentioning that jobs data is a late-cycle data point. As you can see in the Chart of the Day,...

 

Sunday, December 8, 2019

In a recent Wall Street Journal article, they highlighted the growing share of companies in the S&P 500 that are experiencing a slowdown in earning: A third of S&P 500 companies have posted a yoy decline in earnings in 2019. The last...

 

Saturday, December 7, 2019

This will be the first decade in modern economic history (since 1850) that the US won’t experience a single recession. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT...

 

Friday, December 6, 2019

According to a recent article in The Wall Street Journal, “Investors have pulled $135.5 billion from U.S. stock-focused mutual funds and exchange-traded funds so far this year, the biggest withdrawals on record.” Stay Tuned...

 

Thursday, December 5, 2019

College Education: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different...

 

Wednesday, December 4, 2019

US medical insurance premiums are up sharply – this will be a headwind for consumption next year: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease...

 

Tuesday, December 3, 2019

Around and around we go… Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results....

 

Tuesday, December 3, 2019

I will let these charts speak for themselves. The bottom of the V in the chart above coincides with the spike in the chart below. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT...

 

Sunday, December 1, 2019

When interest rates are near all-time lows and you need cash to buyback stock just leverage your balance sheet. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...

 

Saturday, November 30, 2019

“I had a considerable passion to get rich. Not because I wanted Ferraris — I wanted the independence. I desperately wanted it. I thought it was undignified to have to send invoices to other people. I don’t know where...

 

Friday, November 29, 2019

Since we are less than a year from the 2020 election I thought this Chart of the Day was relevant especially with self-made billionaire Mike Bloomberg entering the fray on the Democratic side. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM}...

 

Thursday, November 28, 2019

I wanted to wish all of you a wonderful Thanksgiving! One of my other passions outside of my family and investing is lacrosse/personal development. This is a great day to breakdown the meaning of Thanksgiving into two parts: Thanks and...

 

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

In my Chart of the Day, I wanted to highlight the divergences even within a specific sector over time. Below are total returns of publicly traded real estate sectors over the past 10 years: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...

 

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

With the US 10-Year Treasury Bond yielding 1.79% (which is attractive compared to other sovereign bonds), I thought this Chart of the Day from Visual Capitalist was interesting. As you can see it really has been a ‘Race To The...

 

Monday, November 25, 2019

With the US 10-Year Treasury Bond yielding 1.79% (which is attractive compared to other sovereign bonds), I thought this Chart of the Day from Visual Capitalist was interesting. As you can see it really has been a ‘Race To The...

 

Sunday, November 24, 2019

Interesting note from UBS Wealth Management: Family offices are planning to increase their exposure to private equity — the second biggest allocation in their portfolios — amid doubts that hedge funds can protect their...

 

Saturday, November 23, 2019

 

Friday, November 22, 2019

Just FIVE stocks have accounted for nearly 33% of all of the gains in the S&P 500 over the last two months: Apple Microsoft Facebook United Health Alphabet Chart courtesy of Evercore. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...

 

Thursday, November 21, 2019

According to a recent piece in The New York Times: Companies that make up the S&P 500 index had an average effective tax rate of 18.1% in 2018, down from 25.9% in 2016. As a result, they have spent nearly three times as much on...

 

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

With the yield curve flattening again and high yield spreads widening again, keep an eye on the overall health of the bond market and its liquidity going into 2020. Specifically, in today’s Chart of The Day, we are seeing...

 

Tuesday, November 19, 2019

For those thinking about the very long-term, Austria has bonds maturing in September, 2117. As interest rates around the world fell, sovereign issues took advantage of investor thirst for positive yield and started offering some...

 

Monday, November 18, 2019

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has increased $300 billion in less than two months. If the “repo funding” continues at this pace, the January 2015 high will be taken out by late February of 2019. It will be $800...

 

Sunday, November 17, 2019

Just two stocks, Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL), have now a combined market cap larger than the Russell 2000 and the entire German stock market. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S +...

 

Saturday, November 16, 2019

On the day the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) breaches 28,000 (although NO institutional managers use this index as it is price weighted), the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta updated their NowCast for 4th Quarter 2019 GDP (meaning...

 

Friday, November 15, 2019

Here is a truthful headline and quote from a story in the FT: US and China struggle to finalise ‘phase one’ trade deal. “One person with knowledge of the discussions said that China was ‘absolutely’...

 

Thursday, November 14, 2019

Sentiment in the global stock markets is a bit frothy. No this does not mean we are about to enter into some sort of black hole sell-off e.g. this time last year. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is at 90% which historically is not a...

 

Wednesday, November 13, 2019

According to a new study by Common Sense, on average, U.S. teens in 2019 spend more than seven hours a day in front of screens—not including schoolwork. The latest “media census” finds that screen time among teens and...

 

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

I read the below quote last night and was reminded of this incredible story. Douglas A. Zembiec, who was often known as the “Lion of Fallujah” was an officer in the United States Marine Corps and a member of the CIA’s...

 

Monday, November 11, 2019

“A veteran is someone who, at one point in their life wrote a blank check made payable to ‘The United States of America,’ for an amount up to and including their life.” ~Unknown We are the land of the free,...

 

Sunday, November 10, 2019

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on an every growing mound of cash and short-term investments – in BILLIONS: 2018: $130B 2018: $116B 2017: $92B 2016: $53B 2015: $64B 2014: $49B 2013: $31B 2012: $41B 2011: $37B...

 

Saturday, November 9, 2019

Yes my personal consumption of Peppermint Mocha is now a year-round undertaking – although you can only get the lower calorie version during the holiday season. In the Chart of the Day, you can see consumers are hunting for DEALS...

 

Friday, November 8, 2019

Microsoft found that implementing a four-day workweek led to a 40% boost in productivity, the company announced as part of the results of its “Work-Life Choice Challenge.” The summer project examined work-life balance and...

 

Thursday, November 7, 2019

As a follow-up to my note on Lapses in Judgement it has been a record your for CEO departures. McDonald’s, Under Armour, Nike, and WeWork all lost their leaders last month. 2008 previously set the record for most CEO departures,...

 

Wednesday, November 6, 2019

On the heels of the McDonald’s news this past week where CEO Steve Easterbrook was forced to resign due to a relationship with an employee, Jessica DiNapoli of Reuters dug deeper into this issue. In 2018, fully 39 percent of CEOs...

 

Tuesday, November 5, 2019

David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs after being stung by losses in Uber and WeWork, he told Bloomberg that profits matter more in this bifurcated market we are seeing in both private equity, venture capital and bond markets. After...

 

Monday, November 4, 2019

We will elect a President. Here is the Calendar of Events to follow along at home. Here are the latest polls – three in fact – on the Democratic front runners. Here is an animated Candidate Field Guide. Stay Tuned,...

 

Sunday, November 3, 2019

Who emits the most CO2 today? Appended below are the highlights of a recent report by Our World In Data. China is, by a significant margin, Asia’s and the world’s largest emitter: it emits nearly 10 billion tonnes each year...

 

Saturday, November 2, 2019

As a follow-up to my entry entitled Is It QE or Not I wanted to provide a better visual on the reversal of Fed policy of Quantitative Tightening (QT). As you can see there has been $258 billion of Fed money printing in just two months!...

 

Friday, November 1, 2019

In case you have not held any deep value stocks, the Chart of the Day is here to highlight the fact that the last decade of Value underperformance vs. Growth is the second worst since 1937. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...

 

Thursday, October 31, 2019

Happy Halloween The average trick-or-treater hauls in between 3,500 and 7,000 calories worth of candy on Halloween night. Tt takes 44 hours of walking to burn that off! Earning Quality “NIPA profits have been flat for the last...

 

Wednesday, October 30, 2019

The Economist Chart of the Day appended below shows how much wealth has been made in technology over the last decade. You’re not a genius for predicting that (eventually) this trend corrects. What sector is next to see this kind...

 

Tuesday, October 29, 2019

As we are close to wrapping up this decade, some perspective on stock returns. Average Real Returns (After Inflation) per Decade were 6.6% per year. Worst was -3.4% (2000s) Best was 16.7% (1950s) We’re currently ending the top 5...

 

Monday, October 28, 2019

Some things never change. The below is from The Economist – 1858 (Hat Tip Jamie Catherwood): “It is equally beyond doubt that every speculative mania which has run its course of folly and disaster has derived its original...

 

Sunday, October 27, 2019

Semantics. But either way with the issues within the plumbing of the repo and money markets of last month, they ARE EXPANDING their balance sheet. Call it what you will. By the looks of the above Chart of the Day, an increase in the...

 

Saturday, October 26, 2019

Is this the Upside Down World? World’s weakest PMI: Germany World’s strongest PMI: Greece This is the exact opposite of 4 years ago! I still don’t think Germany is going to need a bailout from Greece though! Stay...

 

Friday, October 25, 2019

With the recent announcement of free stock, ETF and most options trades by financial services firms, I thought I would post a Flash Back Friday – if that is even such a thing. The first Chart of the Day is just a friendly...

 

Thursday, October 24, 2019

The tables have turned and my take on WeWork exemplifies the excess capital swimming in the private equity / venture capital pool. While this is just an estimate of private market multiples and is not a ‘signal’ it is more...

 

Wednesday, October 23, 2019

How many private planes does it take to run a $40 billion industrial company whose stock price is at the same level it was at the end of 2013? If you guessed EIGHT you would be correct! Oh and don’t forget the one helicopter. The...

 

Tuesday, October 22, 2019

From Howard Marks in this latest Memo – Mysterious: Negative interest rates are nothing short of a mystery; they’re likely to throw off whatever we knew about the financial world and how things worked in the past. With more...

 

Monday, October 21, 2019

As it turns out, the average American wastes 900 cups of water every week from leaving the water running while they brush their teeth — a guilty action that 42% of people admit to doing, according to a survey conducted by Red...

 

Sunday, October 20, 2019

A Harvard survey of 4,000 millionaires found that the millionaires worth $1 million were approximately as happy as the millionaires worth $8 million. This finding — that at the end of the day, $7 million is worth basically $0...

 

Saturday, October 19, 2019

Based on recent IRS data, anyone making more than $515,371 in annual adjusted gross income is in the Top 1% of all earners in the US. This is a rise of 7.2% from the year prior, even after adjusting for inflation. Since 2011, when the...

 

Friday, October 18, 2019

The 20 largest ETFs now have $1.556 trillion in assets. While the indexes they track are passive, their users are anything but. Over the previous twelve months, the total trading volume in these products was a whopping $11.529 trillion...

 

Thursday, October 17, 2019

How China Took Over While America’s Elite Slept is a new book by Robert Spalding, Brigadier General. I have highlighted a few of the salient, concerning points regarding our relationship with China. “Having served as Chief...

 

Wednesday, October 16, 2019

The Fed announced last week that it will begin to buy Treasury bills today an initial pace of $60 billion a month and continue those purchases into the second quarter of 2020, marking a pivot for the central bank. “In light of...

 

Monday, October 14, 2019

As you can see in my Chart of the Day, the average credit card interest rate is 17.39%. This is the highest level in decades. I have mentioned this trend before but at the very least maybe these card holders should look to refinance or...

 

Sunday, October 13, 2019

The “Trade Deal” summed up in one sentence from 1688: “The expectation of an event creates a much deeper impressionon the exchange than the event itself.” – Jose de la Vega, 1688 So, how will the markets...

 

Saturday, October 12, 2019

Let’s be honest and not political. The “Best Ever Trade Deal” isn’t awesome. The trade Bean Deal “Phase One” is nothing. China buys a ton of soybeans (as 1/3 of their herd is killed by Swine Flu)...

 

Friday, October 11, 2019

This week’s Bloomberg column from Barry Ritholtz looks at the lackluster collective performance of Ivy League university endowments: Harvard: 6.5%, Yale 5.7%; University of Pennsylvania 6.5%; Dartmouth 7.5%; Brown 12.4% (Smallest...

 

Thursday, October 10, 2019

In a recent Bloomberg article, Warren Buffett was offering to inject $5 billion into Bank of America so he did what any billionaire would do: call the Help Line. The bathtub epiphany that led Warren Buffett to pump $5 billion into Bank...

 

Wednesday, October 9, 2019

China’s debt levels are unsustainable. China’s private nonfinancial sector credit is roughly 2x its nominal GDP. That ratio compares to 1.6x for the US and Japan and 1.5x for the Eurozone. Moreover, four-fifths of all...

 

Tuesday, October 8, 2019

In looking at the below Chart of the Day, you have to wonder if this image via @SoberLook serves as a warning to the Private Equity managers and General Partners (GP.’s) who are sitting atop a record $2.5 trillion in dry powder?...

 

Monday, October 7, 2019

We will see in a few weeks. The Fed Funds Futures (FFF) implied probability on a rate cut at the end of October is now 84.2%. Only a few days ago the probability was sub-40%. There is a 0% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut and...

 

Sunday, October 6, 2019

Money for nothing. Spain sold €2.18bn of 10-year bonds at record low yield of 0.115% vs 0.21% at the last auction in September. Although, with a debt ratio of almost 100%, the country is one of the most heavily indebted nations in...

 

Saturday, October 5, 2019

Headline was a +136,000 growth in payrolls with a positive revision to August and July. The five-month stretch of downward revisions has been arrested. We have a fresh low in the unemployment rate and the underemployment rate fell as...

 

Friday, October 4, 2019

For the past year, we have seen a steady decline in US consumers’ interest in buying large household goods, i.e. washers, dryers, computers, TVs, furniture etc. This sentiment indicator has historically been a very good leading...

 

Thursday, October 3, 2019

US Manufacturing (PMI) below 50 for 2 months. US PMI data this week gave the market a wake-up call to what I have been saying for months: the economy in the US is slowing, This is the 2nd consecutive monthly reading below 50,...

 

Wednesday, October 2, 2019

Well they may in the world of private equity. There are often referred to as companies that are worth over $1 billion and still private enterprises. Eventually they go public, unless your are WeWork. However, the public markets have...

 

Tuesday, October 1, 2019

According to The Kauffman Foundation: From 1986-1999, 29 top venture capital (VC) funds invested 21 billion and returned $85 billion. Over the same time period, the rest of the VC universe invested $160 billion and returned a scant $85...

 

Monday, September 30, 2019

We are seeing this in the GM worker strike. As companies make more in profits, labor wants their share of the pie. This dynamic has a ripple effect we see in the later part of the cycle. As explained by Christian Drake: “If...

 

Sunday, September 29, 2019

“You can, of course, pay too much for even the best of businesses…. Investors making purchases in an overheated market need to recognize that it may often take an extended period for the value of even an outstanding...

 

Saturday, September 28, 2019

This is your daily reminder that as the 4th quarter gets underway economic cycles still matter. More than tweets, “trade deals” and any other headlines CNBC throws at you. As you can see in my Chart of the Day, the last two...

 

Friday, September 27, 2019

In my Chart of the Day, you can see that after several years of the stock market being driven by only a handful of companies, this divergence has reverted back to the mean. While this does not factor in the last two quarters, it gives...

 

Thursday, September 26, 2019

Jefferies’ merchant banking unit wrote down the value of its investment in We Co. by $146 million. As I posted my thoughts on WeWork IWork, the largest monetary losers in this will not be the buyers of the IPO (aka the retail...

 

Wednesday, September 25, 2019

…Instead of WeWork On the heels of his resignation termination, WeWork founder Adam Neumann today stated, “Too much focused has been placed on me.” Oh really…you only mentioned yourself 169 times in the S-1....

 

Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Whether you have spent time with me talking about my investment process or when I was a lacrosse coach, you would know I am a believer in data points and process. I have been sounding the drumbeat on our view of an earnings slowdown....

 

Monday, September 23, 2019

In all honesty, I have no idea. However, we do use history as a guide. As you can see in the Chart of the Day, in pre-election years, the markets tend (but not always) have a move to the downside. As I have been stating, I tend to...

 

Sunday, September 22, 2019

It is amazing what one week of rising interest rates does! This Chart of the Day comes from LPL Research chief strategist John Lynch and it looks at the phenomenon of negative-yielding debt. Lynch notes that “Unfortunately, the...

 

Saturday, September 21, 2019

“Things are never clear until it’s too late.” ~Peter Lynch This is why it is imperative to have an investment process. You have to make decisions with incomplete information. However, you want to be able to tilt the...

 

Friday, September 20, 2019

In the Chart of the Day, I wanted to highlight why we should pay attention to the financial health of the largest freight company in the world. Concurrent with my outlook for a year-over-year slowdown in US GDP, the chart seconds this...

 

Thursday, September 19, 2019

Unless I fell asleep for a few minutes during Chairman Powell’s press conference yesterday, I don’t recall him being asked about the Fed’s Dual Mandate of achieving full employment and containing inflation. Although,...

 

Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Chart of the Day, Courtesy of the New York Fed The index for future business climate declined 11 points to -18.6, its lowest level since 2009, indicating that firms expected the business climate to worsen in the months ahead. Add this...

 

Tuesday, September 17, 2019

“Our performance continues to be negatively impacted by a weakening global macro environment driven by increasing trade tensions and policy uncertainty,” FedEx Chief Executive Frederick W. Smith said in a statement. If...

 

Monday, September 16, 2019

“For China to maintain growth of 6% or more is very difficult against the current backdrop of a complicated international situation and a relatively high base.” ~China Premier Li Keqiang 8/15/19 “If you exclude any...

 

Sunday, September 15, 2019

At first glance this chart looks very bullish. From the 1929 peak to the 2019 peak—90 years—inflation-adjusted capital gains (no dividends, taxes, or fees) the S&P gained 1.9% annualized. This shows how important income is...

 

Saturday, September 14, 2019

Morningstar has the Chart of the Day as it outlined Domestic Revenues for each country. The Chinese index leads the way with 87.26% of revenues coming from Chinese companies. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor &...

 

Friday, September 13, 2019

Passive US equity funds have finally surpassed active US equity funds in assets under management. By the end of August, passive US funds had total net assets of $4.27 trillion, compared with $4.25 trillion in active US equity funds,...

 

Thursday, September 12, 2019

In my Charts of the Day, I focus on the RoC in earnings. That is the Rate of Change on a year-over-year basis. In the first chart, even though the absolute earnings levels will be positive, they are set to slow by 3.6% on a...

 

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

“September 11 impressed upon us that life is a precious gift… And I think we all have a duty to devote at least a small portion of our daily lives to ensuring that neither America nor the world ever forgets September 11...

 

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

First, let me start by saying my capital allocation process and signals do not focus on recessions but Rate of Change. Second, you don’t need a recession to lose 20% of your money. Just look back to the 4th quarter of 2018 when...

 

Monday, September 9, 2019

Banks made $6 BILLION from overdraft fees last year. In other words, banks made $6 BILLION from people who have little financial flexibility to begin with. Three of the largest US banks tallied the following last year: $1.1 Billion in...

 

Sunday, September 8, 2019

No surprise borrowers are paying down their mortgages and Home Equity Lines of Credit with the drop in interest rates. In my Chart of the Day, we are seeing a steady borrower, but are experiencing some fissures in the auto loan market...

 

Saturday, September 7, 2019

In my Chart of the Day, I am pondering if banks are getting smarter or staying greedy? Banks are in the business of borrowing short and lending long. Meaning they borrow from the government at short-term, lower rates and then lend to...

 

Friday, September 6, 2019

In my Chart of the Day, JP Morgan earlier this week extolled that ‘Now is the time to buy stocks.’ Huh? I thought the last 10 years were pretty good! Also, what stocks to buy? What sectors? What countries? What size? What...

 

Thursday, September 5, 2019

Not sure how long this will last, but the iron clad reversion-to-the mean rule in investing says it won’t be forever. This Chart of the Day highlights the relative outperformance of US stocks vs. European stocks. This is an...

 

Wednesday, September 4, 2019

It looks like China is already winning one war: recycling batteries for electric cars. “Deployment of about 140 million electric vehicles by 2030 will require: 3 million tons more copper a year 1.3 millions tons more nickel 263...

 

Tuesday, September 3, 2019

In the Chart of the Day, you can see Global PMI’s have experienced one of the longest slowing streaks in decades. Beware of FOMO! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Monday, September 2, 2019

In my Chart of the Day, you can see that an hour of work buys more alcohol today than any time in history. Is that due to the amount of spiked seltzers on the market or the collective stress levels of US workers? Stay Tuned,...

 

Sunday, September 1, 2019

In my Chart of the Day, you can find out! This is a snapshot of what the average American household made and where it was spent. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT...

 

Saturday, August 31, 2019

Even as Secretary Mnuchin stated this week the Administration is ‘seriously considering issuing 50- and 100-year bonds,’ below I present the Chart of the Day of the Argentina 100-Year bond. Issued in 2017, the $2.5 billion...

 

Friday, August 30, 2019

Specifically on capital flight out of the Yuan after the currency weakens to 11 year lows. Here is an example from the Nikkei Asian Review article: “If a parent wishes to pay school expenses for a student studying abroad, an...

 

Thursday, August 29, 2019

At some point in time the jaws close! This could have been titled Reversion to the Mean. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that...

 

Wednesday, August 28, 2019

Dr. Michael Pilsbury’s perspective on Chinese strategy is an important one to consider when factoring in the trade deal saga: “China’s Marathon strategy depends heavily on goodwill from other countries, especially the...

 

Tuesday, August 27, 2019

“Good investment advice is repetitive and boring. There is nothing exciting about it.” ~D. Muthukrishnan So tune out CNBC and read! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R =...

 

Monday, August 26, 2019

The silly season in software IPO’s will only get worse from here. According to Ami Joseph, there are ~300 companies in the private realm worth more than $1 billion, aka unicorns. It would be hard to ignore taking money from...

 

Sunday, August 25, 2019

With volatility increasing and set to continue for the foreseable future, I thought this updated Chart of the Day would be beneficial. As you can see on any given day the S&P 500 has a 53% chance of going up. However, when you have a...

 

Saturday, August 24, 2019

As mentioned previously and with the move to historical lows recently in US Treasury bonds, your mortgage broker may see an uptick in business. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R =...

 

Friday, August 23, 2019

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published the preliminary annual benchmark revision for the national employment data this morning. The estimate revisions occur on an annual basis and cover the April to March period (so, April...

 

Thursday, August 22, 2019

Denmark has taken negative interest to a new level. Denmark’s Jyske Bank unveiled a negative mortgage rate of -0.5%. They are paying borrowers to take out a mortgage. This is on the heels of German’s Hyp Bank selling 1...

 

Wednesday, August 21, 2019

When you buy shares of the S&P 500 Exchange Traded Fund SPY you are buying an investment with an end date. Huh? SPY is the largest ETF in the world, with $240.1 billion worth of assets in it as of the end of 2018. It was the first U.S....

 

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

In my Chart of the Day, I outline how the markets responded last week while in the throes of the biggest flight to safety in decades. Treasuries, gold and the Japanese yen are clocking ‘the largest number of outsized...

 

Monday, August 19, 2019

…Means you must come to America! As you can see in my Chart of the Day, the US bond market represents ~94% of the yield you can capture in all of global bonds. Between ~$17 trillion in negative yielding bonds and bonds that...

 

Sunday, August 18, 2019

As you can see in the Chart of the Day, as the yield curve flattens, banks historically have a lower willingness to lend to consumers. This would be carried out via higher credit scores necessary to borrow, higher rates levied for...

 

Saturday, August 17, 2019

In this Chart of the Day courtesy of Macrobond, we see that over 53% of all yield curves globally are inverted. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...

 

Friday, August 16, 2019

When you hear me use the term ‘Macro Tourists’ my below Chart of the Day is why. Investors have a tendency to lock-on to a new phrase/term when the market volatility increases, like it has this week. In the above chart, the...

 

Thursday, August 15, 2019

According to a new study published in Nature Energy, there are 344 cities in China with solar energy generation that is cheaper than the energy coming from the overall grid. There are another 75 cities where the price of solar can even...

 

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

Morningstar Research recently published a report on how a contrarian strategy of buying unloved, out-of-favor sectors based on fund outflows performed. The looked into the 3 Categories with the Largest Outflows in the Prior Year Since...

 

Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Appended below is a great visual highlighting all of the negative sovereign bond yields across the globe: 50-Years: Switzerland 30-Years: Germany, Netherlands 20-Years: Denmark 15-Years: Japan, Austria, Finland, Sweden, France, Belgium...

 

Monday, August 12, 2019

$70,000 per Minute… $4 million per Hour… $100 million per Day… That’s how much money the Walmart-owning Walton family has made in the year since Bloomberg’s previous list of the world’s richest...

 

Sunday, August 11, 2019

Yes it is true that lower rates and a flat yield curve hurt savers; however, one main advantage of lower rates is on mortgages. As I have mentioned lending standards tend to increase when the yield curve flattens, but if you are in...

 

Saturday, August 10, 2019

I wanted to take a moment to switch gears with this post. In my Chart of the Day, I wanted to highlight a flow chart from Michael Kitces on the Financial Planning Process. It is very important to start with a realistic budget and begin...

 

Friday, August 9, 2019

Via @ValaAfshar 52% of Fortune 500 companies have disappeared since year 2000. In the Fourth Industrial Revolution, every company is a technology company. Every company is a data company. Every company must operate like software...

 

Thursday, August 8, 2019

Why do investors make irrational decisions? Daniel Kahneman is spot on with his assessment: “Because the long term is not where life is lived.” Especially in this era of instant gratification, having patience is paramount...

 

Wednesday, August 7, 2019

“As the velocity of information consumption increases, the ability to separate the significant from the meaningless becomes more important.” ~Shane Parrish It is imperative you get your information sources correct. You...

 

Tuesday, August 6, 2019

One year ago today, CNBC reported on how Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan (JPM), thought interest rates should be higher. Much higher. He stated, “I think rates should be at 4% today.” At that time they were at ~3%. He...

 

Monday, August 5, 2019

The total market capitalization of the 26 largest banks in Europe is below that of Facebook’s (FB). Below appended is my Chart of the Day outlining the performance of these banks over the past five years. Potential day of...

 

Sunday, August 4, 2019

Actually a reminder, now that banks are starting to report earnings for the 3rd quarter. In 2008, Bank of America got $45 billion in TARP funds, yet it paid out $3.3 BILLION in BONUSES, including 28 bonuses over $3 million. Merrill...

 

Saturday, August 3, 2019

From: @behaviorgap The concept…the very idea…of retirement is dumb. Waiting until some arbitrary age to enjoy life PLUS stopping all meaningful work all at once…DUMB. I will never retire. I will just do more of...

 

Friday, August 2, 2019

…Are Not Always Efficient Because HUMANS and their EMOTIONS are involved! “The market is fond of making mountains out of molehills and exaggerating ordinary vicissitudes into major setbacks.” – Benjamin Graham...

 

Thursday, August 1, 2019

The month of August is the worst performing month for the S&P 500 since 1994. The stock index has suffered an average loss of 0.6% (total return) during August over the last 25 years (1994-2018). The best performing month since 1994...

 

Wednesday, July 31, 2019

In my Chart of the Day, it looks like Americans believe in large numbers that their retirements are going to be just fine: 15-year high 57% of non-retirees anticipate comfortable retirement 57% of retirees rely on Social Security as...

 

Tuesday, July 30, 2019

What do you need to do? 147 million American's data was stolen from Equifax in 2017. The data maintained by a credit bureau is immense and put all people affected by this breach at serious risk of Identity Theft. Identity Theft is when...

 

Monday, July 29, 2019

…Known To: Read nonstop about everything Seek to understand opposing views Refrain from following the crowd Be comfortable appearing wrong for long periods of time Have the courage to act when others are scared These are Simple...

 

Sunday, July 28, 2019

On the Chart of the Day, we see that Greece 10-Year government bond yields now MATCH US 10-Year Government bond yields. What debt would you be comfortable investing in over the next 10 years? Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM}...

 

Saturday, July 27, 2019

For 10-Year Sovereign Bonds as of July 25th: USA = 2.05% Great Britain = 0.681% Germany = -0.374% Swiss = -0.67% Japan = -0.147% Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT...

 

Friday, July 26, 2019

Beyond Meat’s market cap just passed Conagra. Conagra: Founded in 1919 Duncan Hines, Hunts, Slim Jim, Orville Rendenbacher, Healthy Choice, PAM, Birds Eye, Earth Balance, etc. 18,000 Employees $9.5 billion Revenue Beyond Meat:...

 

Thursday, July 25, 2019

With US stock markets overbought and global economic data languishing, this mantra will be critical to keep in mind over the next few months: Risk is not volatility. Risk is permanent loss of capital. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient!...

 

Wednesday, July 24, 2019

In my Chart of the Day, I am scratching my head: If you made $249,000 last year, your refund went down. But if you made $499,000, your refund went up. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S...

 

Tuesday, July 23, 2019

The Chinese economy grew by 6.2% in the 2nd quarter 2019, i.e., year-over-year growth rate, the lowest growth rate reported by China in records maintained since March 1992. The last time the United States reported a growth rate of at...

 

Monday, July 22, 2019

The stock market has produced a total return of +14.7% per year over the last 10 years through 6/30/19. The worst quarter over the last decade was a drop of 13.9% in the 3rd quarter of 2011. The S&P 500 was used as the stock...

 

Sunday, July 21, 2019

“A wealth of information creates a poverty of attention.” ~Herbert Simon Just because you have an endless reservoir of information in your pocket doesn’t mean it makes you smarter. Endlessly scrolling and only...

 

Saturday, July 20, 2019

Peter L. Bernstein, the famous investor, on how to make better decisions when investing and in life: “You have to keep reminding yourself: We don’t know what’s going to happen with anything, ever, over any period. And...

 

Friday, July 19, 2019

From @RudyHavenstein Attention young people: Today I made my own avocado toast, saving $5. If I did this every day for 2,920,548 years, I’d have as much money as Citigroup’s 2008 bonus pool. Stay Tuned, Disciplined &...

 

Thursday, July 18, 2019

In my Thought of the Day, the veteran CEO of CSX can almost be heard scratching his head on the earnings call as the stock slides 12% in two days: “The present economic backdrop is one of the most puzzling I have experienced in...

 

Wednesday, July 17, 2019

As of this writing the options market is pricing in a 100% probability of a some level of rate cut in two weeks: 65% chance of 25 basis point cut 35% chance of 50 basis point cut Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor &...

 

Tuesday, July 16, 2019

I couldn’t resist and this is not political. SentimentTrader sent this chart out earlier this morning and I couldn’t resist in posting it. There seems to be a high correlation to President Trumps tweets about...

 

Monday, July 15, 2019

Based on the Chart of the Day, the risk of a recession has risen considerably according to the New York Federal Reserve Bank Recession Probability Indicator. This uses the yield curve slope as a primary input. Several parts of the...

 

Sunday, July 14, 2019

I recently read a disheartening but accurate assessment of how the combination of continued historically low interest rates plus future obligations creates a dangerous alchemy of reaching for yield. The paper is authored by Danielle...

 

Saturday, July 13, 2019

I come across so much good content and sometimes the author puts it all together making my research that much easier. In this case Daniel Crosby has cobble together his Big List of Money Wisdom: The Joneses aren’t as rich or...

 

Friday, July 12, 2019

Corporate Board Elections Getting a Little Less Cozy This year, 478 nominees for U.S. board seats failed to win support from a majority of voted shares, a 39% jump from 2015. One of the issues at work here is investors are finally...

 

Thursday, July 11, 2019

@CheapInvesting Behavior > StrategyProcess > OutcomeDiscipline > KnowledgePrice > StorySimple > ComplexChecklists > MemoryAvoid Permanent Loss of Capital > Minimize volatility Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient!...

 

Wednesday, July 10, 2019

In the upcoming non-stop political season, we could see a showdown over stock buybacks by corporations, especially if Elizabeth Warren ascends to the top of the Democratic field. I believe some sort of action will be taken but doubt a...

 

Tuesday, July 9, 2019

As you can see in the chart below, most trading happens in the last and first half an hour of each trading day. Also, ~85% of each day’s activity has to do with indexes, quants and rules-based options strategies. Stay Tuned,...

 

Monday, July 8, 2019

Since 2009, the level of global nonfinancial companies rated as speculative, or junk, has surged by 58%, to the highest ever. Fully 40% are rated B1 or lower, the point that Moody’s considers “highly speculative,” as...

 

Sunday, July 7, 2019

In my Chart of the Day, we see that 96% of Swiss Government bonds have negative yields. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that...

 

Saturday, July 6, 2019

In my Chart of the Day, Charlie Bilello provide you a startling representation of what it looks like to invest in a 30-Year bond issued by the Swiss government with a yield of -0.05%. Yes for 30 years you lose -0.05% annually. Stay...

 

Friday, July 5, 2019

“The laws of probability, so true in general, so fallacious in particular.” ~Edward Gibbon Keep this succinct quote in mind when watch financial news media. If all we needed to do is look at history, I would not be typing...

 

Thursday, July 4, 2019

Happy 4th of July! Here is my annual post on the birth of our national anthem. Being a native of Baltimore I thought I would take this July 4th as an opportunity to again provide you with the background on our national anthem: The year...

 

Wednesday, July 3, 2019

…But Issuance Is Rare Investors have poured a net $47 billion into municipal bond funds during the first six months of 2019. This a record for the first two quarters, according to Lipper data from Refinitiv. But this surge in...

 

Tuesday, July 2, 2019

Who is keeping track? Is it 90%? or 85%? In December of 2018, it was ‘amazing and productive’ with 90% complete. In June of 2019, it was ‘excellent, right back on track’ with 90% complete. And you mean to tell...

 

Monday, July 1, 2019

Financial Literacy vs. Investment Suitability: Which Matters More? “In Australia they have a robust, mandatory savings program. Guess which country, after Switzerland, has the highest per capita household wealth?” You got...

 

Sunday, June 30, 2019

Most investors in the US state the main reason for placing ~80% of their stock exposure in the US is because US companies have a high % of foreign revenue exposure. Not So Fast My Friends: Out of 23 developed countries guess where the...

 

Saturday, June 29, 2019

A new paper found that realistically electric scooter fleets are hardly carbon-free, given the cost of manufacturing all those scooters with mediocre durability, as well as the cost of paying people to drive around to collect them and...

 

Friday, June 28, 2019

“Equities and Bonds roles have been reversed. People buy stocks for income (since bond yields are so low and going lower as the economy and inflation slows globally) and bonds for capital appreciation (why else would you buy...

 

Thursday, June 27, 2019

In 1997, Peter Lynch wrote a great article entitled, Use Your Edge. I’ve posted an excerpt of it below.: So, what advice would I give to someone with $1 million to invest? The same I’d give to any investor: Find your edge...

 

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

The world’s largest economies by 2030: China India United States Japan Indonesia Russia Germany Brazil Mexico United Kingdom Just keep this in mind when building a globally diversified stock portfolio. Stay Tuned, Disciplined &...

 

Tuesday, June 25, 2019

I wanted to start a new series on the ESG front. As a refresher ESG stands for: Environmental, Sustainable and Governance. I have often mentioned initiatives/projects that I have found interesting or may be investable, but I want to...

 

Monday, June 24, 2019

Here is one of the biggest drawbacks to Alternative strategies. As you can see below after a 10 year bull market nothing will compare to pure stock market exposure. My Question(s) of the Day is, where to now and how do you want your...

 

Sunday, June 23, 2019

In my Chart of the Day and with some stock markets near all-time highs, I just wanted to present a bit of history – post FOMC meetings. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Saturday, June 22, 2019

Note: This blog is not political, just stating facts according to the US Treasury Department. The national debt increased +86% during George W. Bush’s 8 years as president, reaching $10.63 trillion as of 1/20/09. The national...

 

Friday, June 21, 2019

There is currently ~$13 TRILLION in global bonds that trade at a negative yield. This is really not that healthy and a sign of deflation and lower interest rates. Courtesy of Hedgeye Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...

 

Thursday, June 20, 2019

…Predict Often …Don’t Provide a Timeline …Or Don’t In the 12/31/17 issue of USA Today, writer Adam Shell wrote of “18 stocks to Consider for 2018: All of the 18 names are seen rising +25% or more,...

 

Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Sentiment has changed dramatically from one month ago. FED RATE CUT PROBABILITY On May 19th, 2019: June meeting: 9% July meeting: 22% Sept meeting: 47% Oct meeting: 56% Dec meeting: 73% On June 19th, 2019: June meeting: 23% July...

 

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

If you turn on CNBC today or tomorrow, you will see plenty of useless charts and data. If you see this cool looking chart it is best to turn the channel, hit mute, etc. if you have not already done that. Here’s every event since...

 

Monday, June 17, 2019

1,777 Americans filed with the Federal Election Commission to run for president in 2016, a requirement for candidates who raise or spend at least $5,000 of contributions and expenditures. 45% of the world’s population (3.4...

 

Sunday, June 16, 2019

The US bond market (including treasury, municipal, corporate, mortgage and asset-backed debt) was worth $43.1 trillion as of 3/31/19. Treasury debt ($15.9 trillion) makes up the largest piece of the US bond market, according to the...

 

Saturday, June 15, 2019

This interesting diagram from Visual Capitalist breaks down all U.S. energy use by both source and industry, and everything that happens in between. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S +...

 

Friday, June 14, 2019

Mount Everest in Nepal is making history this climbing season having issued 381 permits–the highest number ever. Anyone who pays the $11,000 cost is eligible for a permit to climb Mount Everest in Nepal. Additional costs of...

 

Thursday, June 13, 2019

Coffee as a commodity is inherently volatile, but the past ten years have been particularly bad for coffee farmers. Right now according to a recent article by Kevin Seiff in The Washington Post, coffee sells at $0.89 per pound, which...

 

Wednesday, June 12, 2019

According to IAB (Internet Advertising Bureau) and PwC (Pricewaterhousecoopers), internet advertising revenues in the U.S. hit $107.5 billion last year, the first time the figure made it past $100 billion. Over 3,500 mergers were...

 

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

MONEY – The top 10% of taxpayers received 47% of the $10.2 trillion of adjusted gross income (AGI) earned nationwide in tax year 2016. The bottom 90% of taxpayers received the other 53% of AGI (source: IRS). SUBJECT TO A TARIFF?...

 

Monday, June 10, 2019

In my Chart of the Day, you can see the value of analyst predicting the level of interest rates out 6-months and 12-months. Exactly…no value added whatsoever – outside of this being a contrarian indicator. It’s good...

 

Sunday, June 9, 2019

Based on my earlier entry on BlackRock’s Capital Market Assumptions of forward 10 year returns for US Stocks and Bonds, I thought it very interesting that these low level of returns rarely happen. When measured over rolling 10...

 

Saturday, June 8, 2019

BlackRock recently put out a research piece outlining their Capital Markets Assumptions for the next 10 years. They are underwhelming but appropriate based on current valuation levels and interest rates. They predict US Stocks will...

 

Friday, June 7, 2019

…Is Not Always A Good Thing Non-Financial companies continue to pile on debt. This level is approaching $6.5 trillion. What happens when credit spreads widen and new bond issuance slows as the economy and profits slow? A...

 

Thursday, June 6, 2019

D-Day. June 6, 1944. The Eyes of the World Are Upon You By The Numbers 7,000 Ships 132,000 Men on the Beaches 23,000 Airborne Troops Dropped Behind Enemy Lines 12,000 Allied Aircraft 10,000 Allied Vehicles 4,414 Allied Troops Confirmed...

 

Wednesday, June 5, 2019

In a picture at least! In my Chart of the Day, you can see the absolute positive, meaningful correlation to the expansion of Global Central Bank Balance Sheets to the recovery and expansion of the S&P 500. As I have said many times...

 

Tuesday, June 4, 2019

In what is no surprise, especially since every part of the yield curve – except the 30 Year US Treasury bond – is trading BELOW the Fed Fund Rate, we should expect to see the Fed cuts rates. As the Chart of the Day,...

 

Monday, June 3, 2019

There is a lot to digest in the Chart of the Day, so here is a synopsis: Market-cap weighted benchmarks like MSCI World UNDERPERFORM equal & GDP weighted country allocation. Investors who balanced all countries to the same weight...

 

Sunday, June 2, 2019

From the @OurWorldInData, a chart that should be printed, cut out, and taped to every computer monitor and TV screen in the world: Causes of Death What People Search on Google What the Media Covers Annie Duke on Availability Bias: Take...

 

Saturday, June 1, 2019

Fortune magazine just published their annual Fortune 500 list. Their are the usual fantastic profiles on several of the companies on the list that are worth the read. However, what struck me was a small sliver of a stat nestled on page...

 

Friday, May 31, 2019

In my Chart of the Day, I provide you evidence that the bond market is anticipating lower rates. Long-term corporate bonds are the best performer, returning more than the MSCI AWCI Index, which measures global stocks. Stay Tuned,...

 

Wednesday, May 29, 2019

May 29th is College Savings Plan Day. This is a day to recognize the tax-advantaged account that allows families to save for their children’s educational expenses. That plan is called the 529 Plan. As in 5/29! Stay Tuned,...

 

Tuesday, May 28, 2019

States ADD to string of tax revenue gains, per Pew. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be...

 

Monday, May 27, 2019

On what is now a tradition on my blog, Memorial Day is a time to reflect on the brave men and women who sacrificed the ultimate gift – life – to protect our freedoms. This is the story of Travis Manion and Brendan Looney....

 

Sunday, May 26, 2019

BAA (Junk Bond Proxy) vs. 10-Year Spread Jon Krinsky, Managing Director and Chief Market Technician at Baycrest Partners, looks at a few of the technical red flags that exist for the US stock market as we head into the summer. The BAA...

 

Saturday, May 25, 2019

C’mon Bloomberg! Here was a headline click bait tactic to get you to talk about: Stock Traders Wait Anxiously for a Trump Tweet to Reverse Rout HOPE IS NOT A RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS! If you are a serious investor and you are...

 

Friday, May 24, 2019

Awesome Infographic from the folks at Visual Capitalist on a brief history of US Trade Wars: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember...

 

Thursday, May 23, 2019

Our economy finds a way to consume – even at a slower rate as I am predicting. As you can see in the chart below US importers have been finding alternatives to China since the end of last year. So who feels the effects of a...

 

Wednesday, May 22, 2019

Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) warns of ‘global economic uncertainties brought by trade frictions with the United States.’ “We are preparing for a protracted trade war with the United States.” ~President Xi...

 

Tuesday, May 21, 2019

When you study asset allocation and diversification there is always a sleeve for International stocks as they historically diversified a portfolio of only US stocks and improved overall returns. Well that what the text books say! It is...

 

Monday, May 20, 2019

The amount of bonds with a negative yield is higher than $10 trillion, according to Bloomberg. This means that by the end of 2019, almost 20% of the Global Government Bond Index will have negative rates. Who buys these bonds and why?...

 

Sunday, May 19, 2019

Individual investors are no better than institutions at hiring/firing mutual fund managers. Funds “fired” outperform funds “hired” in subsequent periods, according to updated research from Morningstar. Here is...

 

Saturday, May 18, 2019

Otherwise know as Alligator Jaws! I don’t know when, but it will happen! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past...

 

Friday, May 17, 2019

Serious auto-loan delinquencies – 90 days or more past due – jumped to 4.69% of outstanding auto loans and leases in the first quarter of 2019, according to New York Fed data. This put the auto-loan delinquency rate at the...

 

Thursday, May 16, 2019

“Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.” ~Warren Buffett We are currently at 68%! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT...

 

Wednesday, May 15, 2019

The below chart is from Daniel Crosby that does a phenomenal job of outlining the historical occurrences of market moves lower. You need to prepare yourself mentally for at least one 10% plus correction each year. Therefore when it...

 

Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Yes we have seen a pullback in stocks over the past two weeks on fear of an escalating trade war. In reality, we have seen broad weakness in Far East stock markets prior to headlines and non-confirming moves in commodities such as...

 

Monday, May 13, 2019

Less than half of Americans have $10,000 saved for retirement. Fidelity estimates healthcare alone will cost an individual $130,000 in retirement. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R...

 

Sunday, May 12, 2019

“Sometimes the strength of motherhood is greater than natural laws.” ~Barbara Kingsolver By the time you move out of your parents’ home, you’ve already spent 93% of the time that you will ever spend with them....

 

Saturday, May 11, 2019

On the heels of my Chart of the Day entry yesterday, I thought I would provide more context to the Uber IPO: Uber has the value of BMW and Ford. Uber has 22,000 full-time employees, while BMW and Ford have 334,000. The average hourly...

 

Friday, May 10, 2019

With the much anticipated IPO of UBER (UBER), I thought I would provide you with a word chart of caution: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...

 

Thursday, May 9, 2019

46 million typos! Some 46 million $50 bills in circulation in Australia contain a typo, misspelling “responsibility” as “responsibilty.” The word is in the text of speech printed on the note delivered by Edith...

 

Wednesday, May 8, 2019

Last weekend was the annual pilgrimage for value investors to Omaha, NE from the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. I am going to have a series of entries recapping the salient points from the six hour sit down interview with Warren...

 

Tuesday, May 7, 2019

Last weekend was the annual pilgrimage for value investors to Omaha, NE from the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting. I am going to have a series of entries recapping the salient points from the six hour sit down interview with Warren...

 

Monday, May 6, 2019

And you know what that means for folks from Maryland? Steamed Blue Crabs! Great news from the Chesapeake as the population of crabs has rebounded from a rough streak to the highest levels in seven years. The 2019 count of spawning-age...

 

Sunday, May 5, 2019

The IRS is completely outgunned by the ultra-rich, according to a piece in the Sunday New York Times. One study of income hidden from the IRS found that it’s the richest who hide it the most effectively: the top 0.5 percent of...

 

Saturday, May 4, 2019

While this is not close to the earnings losses of IPO’s, ~35% of the Russell 2000 companies are not profitable. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...

 

Friday, May 3, 2019

Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments...

 

Thursday, May 2, 2019

Daniel Crosby put together an initial list to distill the fundamental building blocks of what makes good investor behavior: Accept Responsibility Embrace Pain Develop Patience Welcome Uncertainty Relish Simplicity Measure with Purpose...

 

Wednesday, May 1, 2019

As you can see below current Fed Chairman Powell may want to dial back the rhetoric, press conferences, dot plots, etc. I can’t imagine his boss President Trump is too happy with lower prices and higher volatility! Stay Tuned,...

 

Tuesday, April 30, 2019

Morgan Housel Undervalued: An asset you just bought. Overvalued: And asset you wish you bought. Bubble: An asset with performance so great that jealously/curiosity causes you to investigate who owns it which makes you realize how many...

 

Monday, April 29, 2019

Barron’s had an interesting note this weekend on companies that hit the proverbial trillion dollar market cap. Microsoft was the latest company to eclipse this exclusive hurdle, only to fade in the afternoon to close at a measly...

 

Sunday, April 28, 2019

12 Minutes Estimated time of use for a single-use plastic bag, compared with the 500 to 1,000 years it takes for that bag to break down. Meanwhile, nearly 100 municipalities had straight-up banned such bags as of last March. Stay Tuned...

 

Saturday, April 27, 2019

New York recently became the second state to ban plastic bags, joining more than 240 cities and counties that have banned or put a tax on bags since 2007. The issue is that taxing bag use may be a more effective use of resources than...

 

Friday, April 26, 2019

In the Chart of the Day we outline tax revenue that each OECD country collects as a percentage of its GDP. I guess I shouldn’t complain about the crumbling infrastructure or giant slalom roads here in the Garden State. Stay Tuned...

 

Thursday, April 25, 2019

California is giving 100% a go! The governor signed a new bill to get CA to use 100% clean energy by 2045. This means that all electricity used by the state needs to come from things like wind and solar power. This new bill is...

 

Wednesday, April 24, 2019

After my entry yesterday on the salary needed to buy a home in the largest metropolitan areas in the US, I wanted to share with you the Cheapest and most Expensive areas, according to HSH.com. The Cheapest Metro Area Pittsburgh, PA...

 

Tuesday, April 23, 2019

This is a great representation from Visual Capitalist on how much salary is needed to buy a home in 50 US metro areas: As a reference point, the median home price in the US is ~$257,000, according to the National Association of...

 

Monday, April 22, 2019

“The environment is where we all meet; where all have a mutual interest; it is the one thing all of us share.” ~Lady Bird Johnson What are you currently doing to be environmentally conscious, from both an investment...

 

Sunday, April 21, 2019

As you can see in my Chart of the Day, consensus forecasts now point to a 0.4% drop in earnings per share for the second quarter. That follows estimates of a 4.6% decline in the first quarter which would earn the label of an earnings...

 

Saturday, April 20, 2019

Two weeks ago it was Barron’s with their ‘Is This Bull Unstoppable‘ cover. This week it is Bloomberg BusinessWeek: If you recall BusinessWeek nailed a low in equities in 1979 with its now infamous cover entitled...

 

Friday, April 19, 2019

According to a recent study from Allianz Global, 71% of investors aim to manage all of their portfolios in an ESG-conscious way by 2030. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Thursday, April 18, 2019

Monetary Madness Accelerates Greek debt touches the lowest yield since 2005. Greek 5-Year yields now trade 20 basis points BELOW 5-Year US Treasury yields. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation...

 

Wednesday, April 17, 2019

According to President Trump, “if the Fed had done its job properly” the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) would have been up an additional 5,000-10,000 points and GDP would be plus +4%. Maybe so, but the domestic equity...

 

Tuesday, April 16, 2019

While Goldman Sachs and many other financial services companies are reporting earnings beats (read: on a year-over-year basis earnings are lower, but Wall Street analysts have very low estimates so we “beat” quarterly...

 

Monday, April 15, 2019

Here is a very good summary of what the tax law changes from late 2017 have meant to you, corporations and the government. And here is a reminder from the Stoic – Seneca in Moral Letters, 96.2: Nothing will ever happen to me that...

 

Sunday, April 14, 2019

While I have mentioned this previously, the IPO market this year has seen its fair share of hot trends and high valuations. As an example, Zoom trades at 60 times sales. While the S&P 500 trades at 3 times sales. {This is not a...

 

Saturday, April 13, 2019

For my Chart of the Day, the NPR podcast Planet Money spoke of the benefits and problems with the dollar stores. Four new dollar stores will open in the U.S. every single day of 2019. That’s a new dollar store every six hours....

 

Friday, April 12, 2019

…And They Will Leave “From 2011 to 2016, the most recent half decade for which IRS migration data is available, California had a net loss of more than 243,000 people, with an annual income in excess of $7.7 billion, to...

 

Thursday, April 11, 2019

No I am not talking about the fantastic infrastructure in the Garden State, but the amount of money the two largest tax preparation firms spent on lobbying last year. Intuit and H&R Block spent a combined $6.6 million last year in a...

 

Wednesday, April 10, 2019

After my post on Herman Cain yesterday, I found yet another sponsored e-mail from Casey Research dated March 30th. The e-mail claimed: “It’s my sincere hope you and your family survive what’s coming. But only those...

 

Tuesday, April 9, 2019

As rumors continue to swirl about a Herman Cain nomination to the Federal Reserve Board, the President Trump loyalist release this sponsored e-mail suggesting readers could turn “$1,000 into $800,000” using a certain...

 

Monday, April 8, 2019

Lyft, Inc. (LYFT) only has to rise by around 52% to reach its IPO, day one pop and the price that Jim Cramer told his viewers said was a good entry. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S +...

 

Sunday, April 7, 2019

No this is not multi-colored pasta. This is a graph showing Rate of Change for Consensus Earnings for 2018 (top) and historical Operating Earnings going back to 2011. In short, expect earning to slow throughout 2019. Stay Tuned,...

 

Saturday, April 6, 2019

Howard Marks, CEO of Oaktree Capital Management: “It’s essential to note that rational and unemotional investors are very much in the minority.” How do you practice this life and financial keystone habit? Stay Tuned,...

 

Friday, April 5, 2019

They anticipated the global economies were slowing! Not this does not automatically mean a recession, it simply means that on a Rate-of-Change, Year-over-Year basis GDP is slowing. This can be seen in my Chart of the Day outlining...

 

Thursday, April 4, 2019

Demand for big rig trucks has tanked. In March, the order for 15,700 Class 8 trucks by North American freight carriers was 6.7% lower than February and 66% lower than the orders in March of 2018, according to preliminary estimates....

 

Wednesday, April 3, 2019

In my Chart of the Day, junk bond bond yields are at their lowest levels since October of 2018. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease...

 

Tuesday, April 2, 2019

The S&P 500 rallied more than 1.5% in March. The Russell 2000 (small caps) fell more than -2% in March. Over the past 20 years, this divergence only happened one other time: March 2000 Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...

 

Monday, April 1, 2019

The guy who wrote “Reading Between the Lies: How to Detect Fraud and Avoid Becoming a Victim of Wall Street’s Next Scandal” was busted for steering investors towards a Ponzi scheme. And No this is not an April Fools...

 

Sunday, March 31, 2019

Saudi Arabia for the first time revealed details to investors that show its national oil company is the world’s most profitable business, demonstrating that the cloistered kingdom is willing to undergo unprecedented scrutiny to...

 

Saturday, March 30, 2019

According to Fidelity, the findings suggest there is an opportunity for those who are simply thinking about it to take the first step toward more mindful planning – a good starting point in establishing habits that can eventually...

 

Friday, March 29, 2019

In most developed countries, massive investment in water infrastructure coincided with rapid urbanisation at the beginning of the 20th century. More than 100 years later, this infrastructure has reached the end of its life cycle and...

 

Thursday, March 28, 2019

Ride-hailing company Lyft Inc. is leading a parade of Silicon Valley companies to Wall Street that display an unusual quality with parallels to companies going public in the dot-com era: lots of red ink. Stay Tuned, Disciplined &...

 

Wednesday, March 27, 2019

I am all for Capitalism but after receiving my personal tax bill this year I am scratching my head? Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease...

 

Tuesday, March 26, 2019

This is Behavioral Finance 101. VItaliy Katsenelson explained the importance of being a Rational Investor this way: The stock market is not your friend. You want to approach it the same way the American president should approach a...

 

Monday, March 25, 2019

CLEAN YOUR FRUITS: According to the Environmental Working Group’s annual analysis of US Department of Agriculture data, about 70% of fresh produce sold in the US has pesticide residues on it even after it is washed. RECORD HIGH...

 

Sunday, March 24, 2019

Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments...

 

Saturday, March 23, 2019

In my Chart of the Day, we compare US 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield to the S&P 500 Returns over a 3-Month period. As you can see the current level is an outlier and is quite unique. As Liz Ann Sonders pointed out, history shows neither...

 

Friday, March 22, 2019

Regardless of valuation levels, periods of high unemployment (Unemployment Rate 7.2-10.8%) were followed by strong S&P 500 gains. Whereas full employment (Unemployment Rate 2.5-4.2%) combined with top-quintile valuations (Normalized...

 

Thursday, March 21, 2019

$1.285 Billion In Ads March Madness is here and so are the mega numbers that accompany the tournament from both a rights fee and advertising perspective. When compared to the postseasons of other professional sports, March Madness...

 

Wednesday, March 20, 2019

First it was German Banks. Now Japanese stocks. From Bloomberg: The benchmark Topix index has slumped about 30 percent over the three decades following the burst of Japan’s bubble economy in the 1990s. That stands in stark...

 

Tuesday, March 19, 2019

What investing $100 at the IPO would be worth today: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be...

 

Monday, March 18, 2019

With the revelations of the college bribery scandal hitting the tape last week, I thought I would share these staggering numbers: Some numbers on admittance, cost, and the importance of college: 61% of kids from families earning more...

 

Sunday, March 17, 2019

Only 47.7% of stocks generated a life-time return that match one-moth US Treasury bills. Investing is hard, so when you start to think it is easy, watch out! Oh and Happy St. Patrick’s Day! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient!...

 

Saturday, March 16, 2019

NOTE: This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities mentioned. Just reporting data from Bloomberg: As it stands, Amazon is UPS’ largest customer, and it’s also FedEx’s fourth-largest customer, so the...

 

Friday, March 15, 2019

Not only do they deliver to their vast customer base, but also to the environment. They will power 100% of their operations with renewable energy by the end of 2020. They are not stopping there as they think about offsetting the carbon...

 

Thursday, March 14, 2019

After peaking prior to the Great Recession, the US home ownership rate has been surging. This has been fueled by household formation by Millennials. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S +...

 

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

This is fascinating, but not necessarily in a good way. German banks as a whole have generated ZERO returns (actually slightly negative) over the last 30 years! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation...

 

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

This story is maddening! The federal government spends a disproportionate amount of its budget for outside contractors in the final month of the fiscal year, as agencies rush to blow through cash before it’s too late. Among the...

 

Sunday, March 10, 2019

The green thumb is making a comeback, with 6 million Americans taking up gardening in 2016, of whom 5 million were Millennials. It’s a $47 billion industry in the United States and the average gardening household spends $503 on...

 

Saturday, March 9, 2019

The gold-standard of Iowa political polls released a new survey over the weekend, and Iowa Democrats remain most supportive of former vice president Joe Biden. Twenty-seven percent of likely Democratic caucus goers say Biden is their...

 

Friday, March 8, 2019

Not really. However, the size of Berkshire Hathaway and the massive amount of money he has to allocate severely limits his investment opportunities. Again, CXO Advisory on this topic: This chart shows differences between Berkshire...

 

Thursday, March 7, 2019

Why am I not surprised! Insiders unload significant amounts of stock upon announcing a buyback and benefit from short-term price pop at the expense of long-term shareholders. SEC research found that many corporate executives sell...

 

Wednesday, March 6, 2019

The S&P 500 INTRA-DAY low came 10 years today. It hit 666.79 on March 6, 2009. That morning, the February Non-Farm Payroll printed a LOSS of 651,000 jobs, and December’s was revised to a 60-year high. Yet, it may stand as one of...

 

Tuesday, March 5, 2019

The economic data we get out of China may not be the most accurate. However, China’s Premier Li Keqiang opened the National People’s Congress by pulling no punches: He announced the weakest growth targets in 30 years of 6-6...

 

Monday, March 4, 2019

The research team at CXO dug deep into Berkshire Hathaway and found that the the stock has outperformed the S&P 500 with the same level of risk. The following chart relates annual Berkshire Hathaway stock return to same-year S&P 500...

 

Sunday, March 3, 2019

After my entry on Berkshire Hathaway, I wanted to point out that even the best investors make mistakes. In fact, the best investors typically hit on 65% of their stock ideas. Anything above that over a full market cycle may be illegal!...

 

Saturday, March 2, 2019

Your reading for the week! But just in case you are short on time, here are 10 highlights with more to come: Berkshire will no longer utilize Book Value as the firm’s major value lies in its operating businesses, not its...

 

Friday, March 1, 2019

According to the research team at Water Asset Management The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) 2017 report card gave the country’s water and waste water systems a D. A large portion of the nation’s drinking water...

 

Thursday, February 28, 2019

This is not an offer or endorsement, just an interesting product in case you are one of the many saddles with student loans. Enter CommonBond, an innovative service that allows you to trade in your original, expensive student loans for...

 

Wednesday, February 27, 2019

Delinquent student loans hit $166 billion in the fourth quarter, but that rate underestimates the effective delinquency rate by about half, so we’re looking at something like $333 billion in student loan debt that has not been...

 

Tuesday, February 26, 2019

A Global Economic Slowdown – in chart form – follow the trend: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past...

 

Monday, February 25, 2019

Check this data out from Bespoke Investment Research: Since 1993: Buying the S&P 500 at open & selling at close every day (ie, only holding it during trading day) = -13.9% return Buying the S&P 500 at close & selling at next open (ie,...

 

Sunday, February 24, 2019

Which would you rather have your $10,000 grow to? $40,810 = 7.3% Annually => Emotions Held In Check $28,057 = 5.3% Annually => Driven By Emotions Exactly! But in order to make your initial $10,000 investment grow to $40,810, you...

 

Saturday, February 23, 2019

“Every single line item in GDP slowed. So the data just slowed a lot faster than what even the most bearish firm on Wall Street predicted. So where could we be wrong? I think it’s possible we’re not bearish enough...

 

Friday, February 22, 2019

Amazon will claim a federal tax rebate of $129 million for 2018, essentially paying a federal tax rate of negative 1 percent. The company, which recently concluded it could not hack it in New York, made over $11 billion in 2018, yet...

 

Thursday, February 21, 2019

What will happen to the multi billion dollar car insurance industry as we begin to remove human error from the equation with driver less cars? A report forecasting the impact of automation estimated that there will be 23 million...

 

Wednesday, February 20, 2019

Just ask Charlie Munger, the billionaire is Vice Chair of Berkshire Hathaway (Alert: Annual Letter Coming This Saturday!) and Warren Buffett’s partner: “At Berkshire Hathaway and the Daily Journal we’ve done better...

 

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

The apparel industry uses an eye-popping amount of water, with one study estimating the industry consumes 79 billion cubic meters of water per year, which is roughly the amount of freshwater the Nile discharges annually. Most of that...

 

Monday, February 18, 2019

John Kenneth Galbraith – Short History of Financial Euphoria “There can be few fields of human endeavor in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of the...

 

Sunday, February 17, 2019

Here is an example: Paul Krugman (11/9/2016): “So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight.” NEVER HAPPENED! Paul Krugman (2/10/2019): “I think that there is a quite good chance that we...

 

Saturday, February 16, 2019

I have been pounding this drum for some time, along with the adage of you get what you pay for. Here are highlights from a recent article from TEBI – an Australian News Service: Mostly those daily reports were about as useful for...

 

Friday, February 15, 2019

Although it is just the first week of filings. Politico: “The average tax refund from the IRS dropped 8.4 percent in the first week of the 2019 filing season compared to the same period last year, according to agency statistics....

 

Thursday, February 14, 2019

Central banks have bought the most gold since the end of the second world war with the commodity becoming an increasingly valuable hedge against growing global instability. This was the recent headline on BusinessInsider. I would make...

 

Wednesday, February 13, 2019

While the Chinese economy has been slowing for the past 12 months, one must marvel at the speed and efficiency of their infrastructure build-out. This is also one reason to continue to monitor the development of the One Belt & Road...

 

Tuesday, February 12, 2019

Below are two examples of the slowdown taking hold across major economies: U.K. ECONOMY FALTERS AHEAD OF BREXIT NYT’s Peter Goodman: “As Britain slides toward a tumultuous exit from the European bloc, cities on the...

 

Monday, February 11, 2019

Of a government shutdown later this week. With a looming Feb. 15 deadline, talks to forestall another government shutdown reportedly “abruptly fell apart” over the weekend. According to Politico sources, the talks broke...

 

Sunday, February 10, 2019

To say that equity markets are on a rollercoaster ride is an understatement. Analyzing 1,094 months of S&P 500 Index data (since January 1928), we find just 32 months in which the equity index experienced a loss worse than the December...

 

Saturday, February 9, 2019

Christian Drake – Hedgeye Risk Management “The State of the (Global Macro) Union to start 2019 remains one of discrete (Global Economic Growth) Deceleration with an investing citizenry conditioned to the pervasive but vapid...

 

Friday, February 8, 2019

The ICE Dollar Index jumped 4.4% last year, the most since 2015. And for multinationals that sell products overseas, that dollar strength (paired with the ongoing trade war) presents a major challenge, reports Bloomberg. Quantifying...

 

Thursday, February 7, 2019

BP Board Supports Proposed Vote on Climate-Change Shareholder Resolution Following pressure from a coalition of more than 300 investors managing $32 trillion in assets, BP supports a vote on a resolution requiring disclosure of more...

 

Wednesday, February 6, 2019

In my Chart of the Day, we get an idea of what it takes to be in the 1% club around the world. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember...

 

Tuesday, February 5, 2019

Since I am a firm believer that Cash is an asset class and that you should have a separate account for emergency needs, you need to optimize the yield on these balances. Jason Zweig addressed this very issue in his recent Intelligent...

 

Monday, February 4, 2019

As investor realize both the economy and profits are slowing on a year-over-year, rate-of-change basis: December – Worst Ever S&P 500 -8.8% MSCI EAFE -5.3% Russell 2000 -12.0% Emerging Markets -3.0% January – Best Since...

 

Sunday, February 3, 2019

Not the game (unless you like two masterminds winning their 6th ring). Not the commercials (although the NFL 100 and Bud Light/Game of Thrones crossover were highlights). Not the halftime show (but this time lapse video of the...

 

Saturday, February 2, 2019

So goes the year for U.S. Stocks Historically, positive January returns for US stocks bodes well for the rest of the year. Since 1926, when January has been positive the calendar-year return has averaged over +17% versus years when...

 

Friday, February 1, 2019

The Wall Street Journal published the updated results of the Super Bowl predictor: Bullish investors who look at an unscientific but popular indicator will be rooting for the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday when they face the New England...

 

Thursday, January 31, 2019

A 30-second ad spot during the Super Bowl is going for between $5.1 million and $5.3 million. That’s a massive 96 percent jump since 2008, when a 30-second spot went for $2.7 million. The real estate is just a fraction of the...

 

Wednesday, January 30, 2019

As you can see from the Hedgeye chart below, economic growth is slowing all over the globe: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember...

 

Tuesday, January 29, 2019

The Perfect Time To Use The Bathroom It’s inevitable that at some point during the Super Bowl broadcast you will probably want to pee. But with so much going on, choosing the perfect time can prove perilous. According to a new...

 

Monday, January 28, 2019

“We’re not really ever positioning ourselves. We’re simply trying to do the smartest thing we can every day when we come to the office. And if there’s nothing smart to do, cash is the default option.”...

 

Sunday, January 27, 2019

…To Suspend Economic Gravity? Not from a year-over-year rate-of-change basis. China’s growth rate was 6.6% in 2018, a 28-year low, according to a report in the Nikkei. In order to keep their foot on the gas, the Chinese...

 

Saturday, January 26, 2019

This paragraph is from The Behavioral Investor by Dan Crosby is a must READ, must PRINT, must REMIND, must SHARE: “Think about the most meaningful thing you have ever done. I would wager that it took a measure of risk,...

 

Friday, January 25, 2019

Continuing on my highlights from Damn Right: Behind The Scenes with Berkshire Hathaway Billionaire Charlie Munger: Develop a Mosaic by Gathering Information: “I think both Warren and I learn more from the great business magazines...

 

Thursday, January 24, 2019

From Damn Right: Behind The Scenes with Berkshire Hathaway Billionaire Charlie Munger: First of all, you have to understand your own nature, said Munger. “Each person has to play the game given his own marginal utility...

 

Wednesday, January 23, 2019

The total number of electric vehicles on global roads surpassed 3 million in 2018. This is a 50% increase over 2016, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). According to a recent report from Goldman Sachs, last week’s...

 

Tuesday, January 22, 2019

The 2018 Periodic Table of Commodity Returns Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of...

 

Monday, January 21, 2019

This is one of my favorite quotes and dovetails beautifully into The Investor & Character Equation: “The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of...

 

Sunday, January 20, 2019

Want to know why the Fed never predicts a recession? To do so would accelerate the arrival of a recession. This would set off a chain reaction of events. Investors would sell stocks Markets would tumble Confidence would be shaken....

 

Saturday, January 19, 2019

Vanguard founder Jack Bogle died January 16 at age 89. He built it into an investing colossus, with more than $5 trillion under management. But his most lasting impact will likely be his evangelization of the humble index fund—a...

 

Friday, January 18, 2019

The rally we have seen since Christmas Eve look to be a counter-trend rally. I would argue that we have rallied for the following reasons: Chinese Central Bank cuts reserve requirements ECB issues dovish comments Federal Reserve may...

 

Thursday, January 17, 2019

I wanted to highlight a great research piece from CornerCap that highlights the fact that by the time we are in a recession stocks are typically within their bottoming process. Thus, the ‘recession call’ is not a signal to...

 

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments...

 

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

Out of every ten parents of young-adult children (age 18 to 35), eight are providing them with some kind of financial support. This new Merrill Lynch-Age Wave survey reveals the full extent to which today’s Boomer-age parents...

 

Monday, January 14, 2019

Apple is United Airlines biggest corporate customer globally. Apple spends $35 million per year on flights from Shanghai and San Francisco, according to research from David Ulevitch. Apple purchases 50 business class seats A DAY...

 

Sunday, January 13, 2019

In the Chart of the Day, we try to locate where we are in this market cycle? Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past...

 

Saturday, January 12, 2019

“If you eat, invest, and think according to what the ‘news’ advocates, you’ll end nutritionally, financially, and morally bankrupt.” ~Naval Ravikant Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor &...

 

Friday, January 11, 2019

The era of recycling may be coming to an end. OK – not really. The era of “easy, single-sort recycling” may be coming to an end. Twenty-five percent of the stuff we try to recycle is too contaminated, and heads...

 

Thursday, January 10, 2019

These are the primary driver of cycles. One of the first things I do each morning is remind myself where are are in the cycle. As I have been saying we are seeing a slowdown in both economic growth as measured by GDP and inflation as...

 

Wednesday, January 9, 2019

In my Chart of the Day, the Managed Futures space which is know for being non-correlated to stocks and bonds, did not work during the sell-off at the end of 2018. So much for “Crisis Alpha” generation: The Barclays CTA...

 

Tuesday, January 8, 2019

While from a pure drawdown standpoint, 2018 was not even close to 2008. However, notice that diversification helped investors more in 2008 as five major asset classes were positive versus just one last year. Stay Tuned, Disciplined &...

 

Monday, January 7, 2019

In my Chart of the Day, I wanted to show you one of the risk management signs I watch on a daily basis. It is the spread between the yields in Investment Grade Bonds vs. High Yield (Junk) Bonds. As this spread widens, the current...

 

Sunday, January 6, 2019

LONG-TERM: The S&P 500 has gained an average of +9.8% per year (total return) over the last 50 years (i.e., 1969-2018). The index was down in 2018 but has been positive in 14 of the last 16 years. Over the long-term, the S&P 500 has...

 

Saturday, January 5, 2019

More than meets the eye: The average stock in the large-cap Russell 1,000 index (large caps) fell 9.18% in 2018. 9% of stocks in the index gained more than 20% in 2018. 35% of stocks fell 20% or more. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient!...

 

Friday, January 4, 2019

The best performing stocks of 2018: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future...

 

Thursday, January 3, 2019

This is absolutely one of my favorite charts. It is now updated through 2018. In short, not much worked. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE...

 

Wednesday, January 2, 2019

OK that was click bait, but there is a morsel of truth in the headline. 2018 was worse than the Great Depression in one area: 93% of all global assets finished the year in negative territory. This was the WORST year on record. This is...

 

Tuesday, January 1, 2019

Here is a great list from Vala Afshar to start the new year: Don’t be impressed by: Money Job title Appearances Experience Affiliations Imitation Big words Be impressed by: Kindness Trustworthiness Unselfish generosity Humility...

 

Monday, December 31, 2018

“Be at war with your vices, at peace with your neighbors, and let every new year find you a better man.” ~Benjamin Franklin Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Sunday, December 30, 2018

No offense to the rock/metal band of the 1990’s, but investors must get used to dealing not only with their emotions but also trading against the machines. According to the article in The Wall Street Journal: 85% of all trading...

 

Saturday, December 29, 2018

“The human factor is always incalculable.” ~Agatha Christie This is why you need a process and the discipline to stick to the process, along with being apolitical and unemotional. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM}...

 

Friday, December 28, 2018

It’s hard not to have notable stats with the massive spikes in volatility to both the upside and the downside, often intraday. There have been 8,662 trading days since August 1984 (the furthest back there is intraday trading...

 

Thursday, December 27, 2018

Over the past 3 trading days, we’ve seen the S&P 500 lose -4.7% over two days, only to gain it all back, and then some, on the third day. Since the Depression ended, that’s only happened two other times: October 9-13, 2008...

 

Wednesday, December 26, 2018

I guess the Santa Claus rally is back on track! Today ~5% rally erased the Christmas Eve sell-off and most of last weeks losses. Notice I said nothing about points. The absolute points gain or loss DOES NOT MATTER, the PERCENTAGE DOES!...

 

Tuesday, December 25, 2018

To all of my readers who celebrate Christmas, I wish you a wonderful day filled with family and friends. To those who don’t celebrate Christmas, I wish you a day of rest and relaxation. To all of you, the markets will reopen...

 

Monday, December 24, 2018

…Sleeping Point? Stock market Corrections (10% Loss from Recent Highs) and Bear Markets (20% Loss from Recent Highs) are typically the best and most painful way to actually find it! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The...

 

Sunday, December 23, 2018

Dear readers I would get used to this heading. Here’s the latest tally after last week: The S&P 500 lost 7 percent for the week and is now down 17.8 percent from its record. The Nasdaq lost 8.3 percent on the week and is now 22...

 

Saturday, December 22, 2018

Question: “What keeps you awake at night?” Answer: “Nothing, I keep other people awake at night!” ~Former Secretary of Defense, Jim Mattis Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character...

 

Friday, December 21, 2018

This is just a sample of how just about every asset class has fallen for in the 4th quarter, and this was before yesterday’s move lower: Energy = -22.3% Growth = -22.0% High Beta = -21.7% Small Cap = -20.2% Technology = -17.1%...

 

Thursday, December 20, 2018

So far, there’s not much evidence of that based on a recent report from the Council of Foreign Relations. Much to the dismay of President Trump who proclaimed himself ‘Tariff Man.’ As the left-hand graphic below shows...

 

Wednesday, December 19, 2018

Well I should have said Top Trend of the 4th Quarter of 2018. Interesting note: the Google search term “Bear Market” was typed more often in late 2018 than during the Global Financial Crisis! Stay Tuned, Disciplined &...

 

Tuesday, December 18, 2018

While I know it doesn’t feel normal, the recent stock market sell-off is actually an annual occurrence. Except in 2017, we did not even get a 5% pullback. That is not normal? Yesterday, the S&P 500 hit a new year-to-date low. But...

 

Monday, December 17, 2018

Not necessarily a good sign for the underlying health of the markets. Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance...

 

Sunday, December 16, 2018

“There are three words which are among the most important words in our business: I don’t know. And if you don’t know something…you should admit it—to yourself and to everybody around you. And I think...

 

Saturday, December 15, 2018

“Investment success does not require glamour stocks or bull markets.” ~John Neff Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember...

 

Friday, December 14, 2018

In the Chart of the Day, you can see that the average holding period for domestic public company stocks has fallen dramatically: 1976 = 60+ Months 2015 = 7.3 Months This is a win for exchanges, broker-dealers, Wall Street and...

 

Thursday, December 13, 2018

With two kids just a few years away from college, this chart does not warm my heart. Maybe I should just buy them a TV and phone instead! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Wednesday, December 12, 2018

It should come as no surprise to regular readers that the risk of a recession is rising. Especially based on my thoughts on a slowdown in economic growth on a year-over-year basis. In the Chart of the Day, Ned David updates their...

 

Tuesday, December 11, 2018

Here is your Chart of the Day: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results....

 

Monday, December 10, 2018

We are nearing the one year anniversary of President Trumps tax cut package. From a cost/benefit analysis, it remains to be seen how effective these tax cuts are. One could argue that it extended the bull market in the US by several...

 

Sunday, December 9, 2018

While mortgage rates have risen from bedrock levels, they are still well below historical rates. My first mortgage in the mid-1990’s was a 30-year fixed at 8.5%! Today, even with the rise in rates they are at 4.75%. Stay Tuned,...

 

Saturday, December 8, 2018

As you can see from the chart appended below, October was truly a difficult one for investors. From a diversification standpoint, typically stocks and bonds don’t fall at the same time; however, this is not an iron-clad...

 

Friday, December 7, 2018

Is competition disappearing? 2 corporations control 90% of the beer Americans drink 4 players control the entire U.S. beef market 5 banks control about half of the U.S.’s banking assets However, these are all highly regulated...

 

Thursday, December 6, 2018

There is much consternation in stock markets about trade deals, tariffs, tweets, executive arrests, program trading, etc. No matter what the headlines scream at the end of the day when I measure and map economic growth and inflation,...

 

Wednesday, December 5, 2018

Our thoughts are with the family of President George H.W. Bush, a man who dedicated his life to serving our country. Sully has the watch: Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O...

 

Tuesday, December 4, 2018

The “Tariff Man” or the yield curve inversion? President Trump on Tuesday issued his most market-moving tweet yet with this gem at 10:03 a.m.: “I am a Tariff Man. When people or countries come in to raid the great...

 

Monday, December 3, 2018

Joel Greenblatt Unless you buy a stock at the exact bottom (which is next to impossible), you will be down at some point after you make every investment. Your success entirely depends on how dispassionate you are towards short term...

 

Sunday, December 2, 2018

How is that for a new catch-phrase! I can’t take credit for it though. It was Danielle Lacalle. He penned an article asking: Are Central Bankers Nationalizing The Economy? Here are some key stats: The US Federal Reserve owns 12...

 

Saturday, December 1, 2018

Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments...

 

Friday, November 30, 2018

Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments...

 

Thursday, November 29, 2018

We study a wide variety of correlations between various investments and other factors. Below I wanted to highlight an interesting chart that has a very high degree of correlation. In short, based on this historical analysis dating back...

 

Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Last year at Thanksgiving, most were talking about Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. This year – not so much! Here is a stark reminder in a recent article from Reuters in regards to where you are getting your recommendations and how...

 

Tuesday, November 27, 2018

With the upcoming G20 Summit this week, many financial pundits are looking for any reason for the market to rally into year end. Many have discussed the potential trade deal between Trump and Xi as a catalyst for the recent move higher...

 

Monday, November 26, 2018

PIMCO put together this chart on how Risk Factors perform in various parts of the market cycle. As you can see below, over the full sample, US stocks beat both US corporate bonds and US Treasuries based on risk-adjusted returns....

 

Sunday, November 25, 2018

Here is a history lesson on Apple, but this applies to most stocks as well. Over the last 15 years of holding stock in Apple (AAPL): 1 out of every 4 days you were in a 20% drawdown or more 61% of the time you were in a 5% drawdown or...

 

Saturday, November 24, 2018

I couldn’t resist! Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM} The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATIONPlease remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results....

 

Friday, November 23, 2018

This is really an issue since we have been on the Quantitative Easing (QE) drug for 10 years. This is from Greg Ip in The Wall Street Journal: While I would argue QE was necessary at the time, I could also argue the Fed kept rates too...