A Realistic FOMC Chair?

| March 22, 2018
Share |

It has only been one press conference but it appears the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jay Powell may be a bit more realistic and straight forward than his predecessors.

First, his press conference actually ended 15 minutes early. They allow for 60 minutes of Q&A and he answered all questions in 45 minutes.

Second, he also had this quote regarding the Fed board members collective ‘guesses’ about future economic activity labeled the Dot Plot:

“We don’t have the ability to see that far in the future.” ~Jay Powell

How bad is the Fed at predicting? Justin Sibears of Newfound Research shares his findings from 2014:

The FOMC is actually predictable in one way – its forecasts are predictably terrible. The following series of charts show how the committee’s forecasts for 2014 growth, unemployment, and inflation evolved through time and how they compared to actual 2014 values. Even forecasts made during 2014 – with the benefit of partial 2014 data – missed the mark.

picture3

picture4

picture5

 

Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM}

The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O

 

Disclosure
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Meyer Capital Group), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Meyer Capital Group. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Meyer Capital Group is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the Meyer Capital Group’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

Share |