A Realistic FOMC Chair?

| March 22, 2018
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It has only been one press conference but it appears the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jay Powell may be a bit more realistic and straight forward than his predecessors.

First, his press conference actually ended 15 minutes early. They allow for 60 minutes of Q&A and he answered all questions in 45 minutes.

Second, he also had this quote regarding the Fed board members collective ‘guesses’ about future economic activity labeled the Dot Plot:

“We don’t have the ability to see that far in the future.” ~Jay Powell

How bad is the Fed at predicting? Justin Sibears of Newfound Research shares his findings from 2014:

The FOMC is actually predictable in one way – its forecasts are predictably terrible. The following series of charts show how the committee’s forecasts for 2014 growth, unemployment, and inflation evolved through time and how they compared to actual 2014 values. Even forecasts made during 2014 – with the benefit of partial 2014 data – missed the mark.





Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM}

The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O


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