My Read of GDP Data

| July 30, 2018
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It was great, in fact it hit a two year cycle high.

However, expect it to start to get “less good” in the coming quarters.

As of now both growth and inflation are mapping higher on a year-over-year basis. Thus 2-year US Treasury yields continue to move higher, as the market believes that Fed will continue to raise rates based on this data.

However, the longer-end of the yield curve (10-year US Treasury yields) are actually falling, as the market believe that the Fed will contine to raise rates, which will be a mistake and inevitable invert the yield curve.

After a record eight consecutive quarters of year-over-year growth, we need to focus on what is next and how to position for the second half of the year.

Question of the Day: Is now the time to get bullish on S&P 500 company earnings and postioning for growht to continue?

 

Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM}

The Investor & Character Equation (ICE) | S + R = O

 

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