The jobs Report

October 05, 2019
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Headline was a +136,000 growth in payrolls with a positive revision to August and July.

The five-month stretch of downward revisions has been arrested. We have a fresh low in the unemployment rate and the underemployment rate fell as well. These are unequivocally fine data points on an absolute basis.

However, I always look to Rate of Change of economic data points. On a year-over-year basis the number was largely flat at the cycle LOWS at +1.44%. Also, the Industrial and Transport sectors of the economy posted job declines, which is not surprising after the latest ISM reports.

Even on a quarter-to-quarter basis, private payroll growth slowed to 119,000 rate over the past 3 months, down from the 2018 average of 215,000.

Also of note in the Chart of the Day is the ‘Job Leaver Rate’ rose from 12.9% last month to 14.6% in September — near its high for this recovery and at one of its higher levels during the last 50 years’, via the Leuthold Group.


Stay Tuned, Disciplined & Patient! {TJM}

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